It is a dream of many everyday handicappers at the racetrack to cash a trifecta on the Kentucky Derby, so be warned, this is no simple task. It could cost you from $0.10 to $25.000 to make your Derby dreams happen, but I promise you this. I will give you my honest advice whether you bet for dimes or diamonds.
When you walk into your local horse track many become awestruck at the number of people waving their tickets around, holding their dreams in their hands. There are a couple for-sure sights at the track; beautiful women in beautiful hats, amazing animals enormous in size, and you will also see the local schmuck who stooping for winning tickets that novices threw away by accident that could be worth their dinner for the night or more for that matter.
Click here for Brisnet Past Performances:
DON’T DO THIS ON DERBY DAY
- DON’T be the guy that walks into the betting line without his bets prepared, you will waste your time, the mutuel teller’s time, and everybody behind you in line will be pissed off.
- DO NOT – BET $2 to win on every horse – YOU WILL LOSE 99% OF THE TIME!
- DO NOT – Box every horse in the race when playing exotic wagers. If you don’t know what box means, research it.
- DO NOT – Take your money out of an ATM at the racetrack, the fees are outrageous and that’s the last place you want to lose a percentage of your money.
- DO NOT – Make a bet you do not understand. This is just ridiculous. If some yo-ho in the racetrack is trying to talk you into a bet, he is probably already broke.
- DO NOT – Spend more than your comfortable losing. Been there done that and it just makes for a rotten life. You will never get back what you lost. Betting to pay the bills is extremely volatile and you will never have the right mindset.
DO’S ON DERBY DAY
- If you have never been to the racetrack or OTB you are going to – DEFINITELY visit the information booth is and find everything you need to know about what you need for that day. Buy your programs, table to sit at, and whatever else you may need to be comforable. FYI – The first race on Derby Day typically starts somewhere around 10:30am ET, GET THERE EARLY!
- Buy a Daily Racing Form if you do not know the program numbers. It will allow you to prepare for your wagers and do some last minute handicapping if you want haven’t go to doing this yet.
- Visit the paddock before every race, pay very close attention to how each horse looks, make notes, then go back after you know who won and finished in the top three, review your notes. Look for consistencies in the horses that run good. You will learn more and more over time.
- MAKE A PLAN! What kind of money are you looking to win? ROI-Return on bets
- Win-Place-Show bets = Low risk, least profit, Common Cost: $2 $100
- Exacta-Daily Double = Moderate risk, low to high profit, Cost: $2 – $24
- Trifecta-Superfecta = High risk, medium to very high profit, Cost: $2 – $250
- Pick 3-Pick 4-Pick 5 = Very High Risk, High Profit, Cost: $2 – $1500
- Pick 6 – Pentafecta = Highest Risk, Highest Profit, Cost: $0.20 – $5000+
Many beginning bettors will stick to the mainstay bets that they are familiar with WIN, PLACE, SHOW, EXACTA, TRIFECTA, and DAILY DOUBLES. Most novice bettors will not venture outside of that range. They will bet what they were taught and what they know. As a former mutuel teller, when the novice player takes a risk, it’s typically a 3 or 4 horse exacta/trifecta box. With the invention of the $0.10 superfecta, more and more players will even bet $0.10 in a race. Most of the time though, they have been taught to box four horses for the $2.40.
What I teach on my website and will focus on throughout my articles and tweets are a few types of bets that have a low rate of success but much higher payouts.
My Kentucky Derby advice will focus on the WIN BET, EXACTA BET, the KENTUCKY OAKS-KENTUCKY DERBY DOUBLE, and the Pick 4 that finishes with the Derby.
Most of my advice will revolve around what situations horses will run together. Simply, if the speed holds up in the race which horses will likely finish together near the top. If the pace falls apart, which closers are most likely to take advantage.
I also will focus on which horses have breeding advantages built in that will help them succeed at 10 furlongs. It is easily the longest these horses have run in their career and it is a big test for many of these horses that are not meant to run nearly this far.
Here is the likely field as of April 27th, 2017 with MY MORNING LINE:
Classic Empire (9/2):
Always Dreaming (6/1):
Irish War Cry (6/1):
Battalion Runner (20/1):
Lookin At Lee (20/1):
Practical Joke (20/1):
Thunder Snow (20/1):
J Boys Echo (25/1):
Battle of Midway (25/1):
State of Honor (30/1):
Fast and Accurate (50/1):
Royal Mo (99/1):
Conquest Mo Money *OUT*
Cloud Computing *OUT*
Local Hero **AE – 99/1**
Master Plan **AE – Belmont hopeful?**
Blueridge Traveler **AE – Preakness**
WHO DO YOU BET?
Right now, it’s an extremely tough question with more than a week left to prep up to the Derby. We are exactly seven days out and the news will start to break as each horse arrives to Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
At this point, I think the best bets are the following horses…
You have to think that this horse bred by BRANDYWINE FARM and Stephen Upchurch to the sire DIALED IN. If this horse wins the Kentucky Derby, his trainer, Antonio Sano may have made one of the best swindles ever in the sport of horse racing. He purchased this colt for the monster price of $16,000 on behalf of PEACOCK RACING STABLES, LLC. In other words, practically nothing for a Kentucky Derby contender.
His last start was in Grade 1 – Florida Derby where he ran 3rd. It could be a little deceiving though. He was running into a very slow pace on a speed favoring track at Gulfstream Park in Florida.
I think he could be the best closer in the Kentucky Derby field and if we can get a :21.4-:22.3 fraction to the first quarter and then a :44.3-:45.2 to the half, Gunnevera will get a perfect set up for what kind of racehorse he is. This will all depend on where the speed horses are located after the post-position draw.
We need to remember that there are a few horses that simply DO NOT have the stamina to make it 10 furlongs. One thing that Gunnevera is going to miss, the lack of Japanese shipper Epicharis hurts. He would have really helped in the speed department. He would have ensured a speedy early going. Even without him, I think the pace set-up gets into that range. I will breakdown each speed horse when the draw comes out next Wednesday.
Gunnevera also has Unbridled blood in his female line and that should definitely help in the stamina department. If he proves to be in right form next week in the mornings, I will have to find some major reasons not to play this horse.
I really think Sheikh Mohamed may have himself a winning Equine this time around if he decides to send him to Louisville. I have to believe that him being nominated and the Sheikh’s want to win the Derby, Thunder Snow will make the trip.
He showed me a slot when beating Epicharis by a nose in the UAE Derby. When watching the races live, I thought that was the most impressive of the three Derby preps that weekend. That included the Rebel Stakes and I believe it was the Spiral, but I am not positive on that one.
I will go into more detail why I like this horse in my article next week.
Here is another major take I would go by…
I am throwing out all the California-shippers
Irap, Gormley, Battle of Midway, Royal Mo, and Sonneteer will not be on any of my horizontal tickets (Pick 3’s and 4’s). I cannot use them in any vertical positions unless I am hitting the all button.
Classic Empire is LEGIT
Just because the favorite has won at such a high percentage recently doesn’t mean that he is going to win this year. Each year should be taken on an individual basis and the fact is if Classic Empire looks in proper physical condition during his paddock preview and out on the track, he must be on your tickets. He is that good. On the other hand, if he is showing a high amount of kidney sweat between his rear legs and on the reigns near his neck, I would be very leery of him lasting 10 furlongs. It just is a bad sign. If he acts up at all he will be using energy. Pay extreme attention to every horse but I am going to put a good picture/bad picture below so you can see the difference.
Here is a picture of bad kidney sweat on the neck during a race
And here is Classic Empire winning the Arkansas Derby, the dirt disguises it but he looked extremely good that day.
TIER 1 CONTENDERS: (Legitimate chance of winning)
Gunnevera — Classic Empire — Thunder Snow — Practical Joke
Tapwrit — Hence — J Boys Echo — State of Honor
Tier 2: (I can’t use these horses on top but they can win in some circumstances)
Always Dreaming — Irish War Cry — McCraken — Girvin
Tier 3: (Need everything to break perfectly)
Lookin At Lee — Gormley — Malagacy
Tier 4: I don’t think they can win it at this time
Irap — Fast and Accurate — Royal Mo — Battle of Midway
Battallion Runner — Untrapped — Patch — Sonneteer