Canterbury Park – Thursday Night, June 29th, 2017 – Quarter Horse Racing Breakdown – Race 1

Race 1 – Claiming10000N2L – 350YARDS

1   – FAST PRIZED JET

10-1    Larren Delorme

 

The connections of FAST PRIZED JET are as cold as cold gets. Trainer, Merritt Pride is winless and jockey, Larren Delorme has one win on quarter horses, he has done better on thoroughbreds. Even so, the speed ratings on this horse are so inconsistent that if you take a shot with him, everything will have to break right. He will need to have a career best, break right, and be in perfect form. Good luck, right?

 

OUTLOOK: He has the ability to hit the board if things go perfectly, but the inconsistency of this team can’t be overlooked. NOT ON MY TICKET TODAY

VALUE LINE: 18-1+

 

2   – BETTER NOT MISS

6-1  E. Bachicha Jr.

 

Trainer Bob Johnson has had 31 tries to get into the winners’ circle and has yet to make it. This horses only win came at the Brown County Fair with Cody Smith aboard at short odds. Today’s distance is not ideal. 350 yards is a bit too far. Jockey is not a go to rider either.

 

OUTLOOK: Drew the inside which does help, but considering most recent effort, I can’t see a career effort and she WOULD NEED TO IMPROVE DRASTICALLY.

 

VALUE LINE: 20-1+

 

3   – IMA DASHIN FOLLIE

8-1      Justine Klaiber

 

Best efforts have come at Canterbury Park going 350 yards which is the exact distance today. Will likely need to get a clean break, that’s going to be difficult with Klaiber aboard. She has won but has also proven to have trouble controlling her horse at time. Has ran well in futurity starts and in open claiming company at Remington.

 

OUTLOOK: It’s all about the odds with this one. Trainer doesn’t start many but Randy Weidner has won 2 of 4 tries. What’s the look on track. Nice and calm or rowdy and uncertain.

 

VALUE LINE: 5-1 to 8-1

 

 

  4   – JUSTA BUMP

12-1 Justin Shepard

 

The 6-yo has had a number of chances to get her second win, but continually finds a way to hit the board but not on top. (19:1-6-6) She is a great horse to use underneath on your tickets. I would suspect that second off the layoff she is probably primed up with her best chance to get a win.

 

OUTLOOK: She could be sneaky in this spot considering her morning line. I will be using UNDERNEATH AND IN SOME PICK 3’s

 

VALUE LINE: 9-1+

 

  5   – DENIM DUST

 7-2     Marcus Swiontek

 

Broke maiden in a solid maiden claiming 10k race this Spring. Prior to that, ran a couple nice races up in Fargo against the best you can ran against up there. The question is how will he fair against open company down here at Canterbury with a race under his belt. If you give him a break in his last start than he should have the ability to run with some of these. Swiontek has been as hot as he has in his lifetime.

 

OUTLOOK: If you were ever going to be a Marcus Swiontek entry that prepped up in Fargo for this meet, it’s now. He is in good form. Last two speed figures put him in the mix. Trainer Vic Hanson can get them to go early, CAN HE HOLD LATE?

 

VALUE LINE: 4-1+

 

 

6  – HICLASS MAN

3-1   Oscar Delgado

 

After a trainer switch and a win in his second start, HICLASS MAN ran against some tough ones at Will Rogers Downs. He went off as the favorite and was beaten in both starts. He went on a six month layoff, came back at Remington and ran flat in April. This will be his first start since but he proved he could win off the layoff in 2016.

 

OUTLOOK: He is obviously a dangerous candidate just based on who he has faced and how he has run. He is one of the few horses that has been consistently running speed figures from 60-70. The problem is why all the gaps in starts and trainer switches. I am not sure what this owner has in mind, but they sure like to hand the reigns over to a new team even if the horse is running decent.

 

VALUE LINE: 2-1 to 5-2

 

7  – TOAST ON FIRE

9-2   David Pinon

 

This ND/MN-bred is coming out of the Gopher Derby which she just got out ran in, but if she breaks well and runs her race, easily can figure into this race. Her speed figures are a roller coaster from as low 40s to mid 70s, The big-big problem here is trainer Bob Johnson is ‘ice cold’ and somehow he needs to shake the goose egg to win with this filly.

 

OUTLOOK: I am not quite sure how I can go with a trainer that is 0 for 31, but I am going to do it. I have trust in Pinon and this filly. MY PICK ON TOP

 

VALUE LINE: 4-1+

 

8  – NO ALIBYES

6-1   Israel Ricardo Suarez

 

Broke maiden back at Canterbury last year going gate to wire, breaking on top and producing a steady bid thee entire way. Followed that up with five straight dull efforts in which he didn’t finish in the top four at all. Trainer Casey Black is doing very well at Canterbury and you can’t just flip the page on this one due to the recent mishaps. I don’t know anything about the Barley & Sharp farm that produced this horse or Larry Sharp that has trained the horse when Black has not had it, but the fact that Black was the trainer when this horse won it’s only start needs to be taken into account.

 

OUTLOOK: Casey Black trained this horse for one start and it won. The horse is ‘Oh for’ in every other trip to the gate. Depending on what the odds are this horse needs to be considered. Speed figures vary from 50-65, likely needs to improve on that  65 which is definitely a possibility with a clean break. HITTING THE BOARD IS VERY POSSIBLE.

 

VALUE LINE: 5-1+

 

Winner in my book will  be #7 Toast on Fire followed closely by the #6 – HICLASS MAN. To be honest if those two horses have trouble any of the other six could win. All of them have raced in the 60s at some point in their career. Only a few have hit the 70s. If things break right for the long shots, it could be chaotic in the WPS pools. It’s the right race to take a shot

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