Noble Indy edges Lone Sailor to win the 2018 Louisiana Derby. My Boy Jack a close third.

There was no doubt that there was a lot of early speed in the $1 Million – Grade 2: Louisiana Derby run this afternoon at The Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. Todd Pletcher’s trained two of those quick entrants, but only one decided to take that approach. The 3-year-old bay colt, NOBLE INDY by Take Charge Indy out of the Storm Boot mare Noble Maz showed that he has the versatility to track the pacesetter, get the lead, and battle hard to hold off his foes. Pletcher’s other entry, 3-year-old HYNDFORD was 8-1 on the morning-line but drifted up to 21-1 at post-time. The bettors had Pletcher’s entries at the correct odds. NOBLE INDY dug in gamely to fend off the fast charging LONE SAILOR and MY BOY JACK.

MY BOY JACK had a lot of question marks surrounding him even though he was the morning-line favorite. His victory in the Southwest at Oaklawn came on a really unique surface. Let’s just call it a mucky, muddy, mess of a dirt course.

Either way, exiting the Louisiana Derby, I think My Boy Jack may have work to do. His point total, currently sitting at 32, is probably not enough to get him in the Kentucky Derby. We have to wait to find that out. And that’s one luxury that Team Desormeaux can take if they prepare him for the Lexington Stakes which is the last chance to earn points for the Derby during mid-April. If things work out perfectly, he will fall above the cut-line.

As for now.

BRAVAZO is in and will be a long shot at 25-1+ in the Derby even with the Gary Stevens/D. Wayne Lukas connections.

NOBLE INDY is in and with Pletcher will get bet no matter what.

LONE SAILOR is a wild card and I am not sure how the public will see him yet.

Risen Star Stakes winner BRAVAZO and Southwest Stakes winner MY BOY JACK clash in the Grade 1 – Louisiana Derby from The Fair Grounds.

The Grade 1 – Louisiana Derby tomorrow drew a field of 10 with a couple of newcomers that we haven’t seen at The Fair Grounds in 2018. The morning-line favorite is Grade 2 – Rebel Stakes winner MY BOY JACK, a 3-year-old bay colt by Creative Cause out of the Mineshaft mare Gold N Shaft. Risen Star winner BRAVAZO, a 3-year-old dark brown colt by Awesome Again out of the Cee’s Tizzy mare Tiz o’ Gold. The clash of these two horses which already have earned enough points to get a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate on May 5^th is going to be very interesting.

For a full breakdown of the race and an individual analysis of each horses past performances and pedigree, donate to keep this page going via the following link. The amount is up to you. I will keep my word and give you all the information I have whether it’s $5 or $25. If you are just here to check out the site, I appreciate you taking the time to read the article. Here is the link to donate: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448\\\

BRAVAZO (Gary Stevens/D. Wayne Lukas)

I talked briefly about BRAVAZO through a number of my articles and races he was involved. He has been entered in four meaningful races when it comes to qualifying for the Derby. He ran 2^nd in the Grade 1 – Breeders’ Futurity at 47-1 missing by four lengths behind FREE DROP BILLY. He then decided to run in the Street Sense Stakes instead of the Breeders Cup, he ran 3^rd behind winner GOTTA GO and 2^nd-place finisher LONE SAILOR whom he will face in the Louisiana Derby. His last start as a 2-year-old came in the Kentucky Jockey Club and he laid an egg finishing last beaten 12 lengths by Gotham winner, ENTICED.

He took six weeks off before debuting as a 3-year-old in an 8-furlong allowance race at Oaklawn in mid-January, he won by a neck defeating a decent group as the 5-2 second-choice in the betting.

If you didn’t get a chance to watch the replay of the Risen Star it is worth taking a look. BRAVAZO looked to float out a bit at the top of the lane losing a bit of ground in doing so. BRAVAZO also looked to be getting a bit leg weary late and drifted out in the final 100 yards while digging down deep to fend off pace-setting rival SNAPPER SINCLAIR by a nose.

The main questions to answer with BRAVAZO and the ones I will give you the answer to if you donate to my website are:

How important is it to D. Wayne Lukas that BRAVAZO perform well in his last prep before the Kentucky Derby?
Can BRAVAZO get the nine-furlongs needed to win after looking a little wobbly going 8½-furlongs in the Risen Star?
Will switching from Miguel Mena to Gary Stevens have any effect on the outcome?

FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

NOBLE INDY (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher)

He was a very tough call for me in the Risen Star. After what Todd did last year with horses with limited experience in these Derby preps, I couldn’t help but think that he could pull it off again. I am not very high on the sire Take Charge Indy. However, the dam Noble Maz has already produced a stakes winning sibling in addition to the now having a Graded-Stakes-Placed colt in NOBLE INDY. Whomever she foals in the future, it’s definitely worth adding to your Equibase Virtual Stable.

Noble Indy had pressed the pace and had the lead by the time the field hit the eighth pole in his first two start and he went on to control the rest of the race and win. In the Risen Star, he was bumped at the break as it shows in his short comment but it wasn’t anything that affected the outcome of his race. He ran right through the bump and continued on near the front of the pack, had he wanted the lead, Velazquez could have pushed it a bit more, but he decided to sit just off the top two and thought that those two longshots would collapse. That didn’t happen.

This is the most important information regarding NOBLE INDY in the Risen Star and I will let it go in this portion and not in the donation-required section. If you watch the replay very closely. You will see that NOBLE INDY is attending the pace on the rail through the first turn. For some reason, Velazquez backed off the gas and didn’t want to be on the lead, SNAPPER SINCLAIR moved forward and there was a lack of room as they began to exit the first turn, NOBLE INDY then got in a difficult position. He had the favorite, INSTILLED REGARD just to his outside and slightly ahead. Larger horses can intimidate smaller or average size horses when you get stuck on the inside with those big horses pushing you every step of the way. I think this is where NOBLE INDY lost the race. I don’t know if he got intimidated or not, but I have no idea why Velazquez backed off the lead. He essentially gave SNAPPER SINCLAIR the spot that he had. And, SNAPPER SINCLAIR was a head-bob away from winning it.

What are the major questions regarding NOBLE INDY going into tomorrow’s Louisiana Derby?

Where is NOBLE INDY going to try to win this race from? Are they going to try and wire it, like they should’ve in the Risen Star? Or, do they try and settle off the pace given the longer distance?
Todd Pletcher has another entry in the race with speed. Todd is smart, they both are not going to send. Who lays off the lead?
Is there more quality speed in this field than there was in the Risen Star? How does it affect the performance of NOBLE INDY?
FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

MARMELLO (Jack Gilligan/Mikhail Yanakov)

Still a maiden as of post-time tomorrow, is it possible that we could see a repeat of what Irap did in the Bluegrass Stakes last year? Probably not. At 50-1 on the morning-line, the odds-maker is probably being generous. He did show very good speed in his debut on the turf going 5½furlongs at The Fair Grounds. He followed it up with an 8½ furlong performance of similarity. He went for the lead and was wore down in the final sixteenth to finish fourth.

These are the kind of horses that can make a dent and hit the board in these big Derby preps. Nobody takes a real look at them and they nearly run away with the race early before being caught in the final yards. Every once and awhile we have scenarios like Irap in last year’s Bluegrass where there is a complete lack of speed and the horse can slow it down to win it from the front-end.

MARMELLO’s biggest problem is he is not lone speed. If they decide to change tactics it may be there best option. Otherwise, this race could get out of hand early and set up for the big closers to the outside.

MARMELLO is out of the sire Concord Point who might mean nothing to any of you but the grandsire is Tapit who I am sure you all know very well. On the bottom, he is out of Anychanceatadance who was by Scat Daddy. In simple terms, the pedigree is stout and I kind of like this one if he stays above 50-1.

GIVEMEAMINIT (Javier Castellano/D. Stewart)

This Louisiana-bred has shown some ability in big races. He ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 3^rd in the Hopeful at Saratoga. He ran his entire 2-year-old season in major Grade 1 stakes races as a maiden. He finally decided to take on maidens at The Fair Grounds at the end of January and he was a ridden out winner at odds of 1-9. He then came back in the Risen Star where honestly I didn’t think he had the best of chances to pull the upset.

Now that he has had another four weeks off and with the speed in the race, the improvement in jockey from Bridgmohan to Castellano could mean some improvement. Enough to win, ehhh… maybe.

Note: *This colt’s BEST BRISNET DIRT SPEED is close to the average winning speed needed to win this race.*

RETIREMENT FUND (S. Brdgmohan/S.Asmussen)

We talked a bit about RETIREMENT FUND never sniffing anything but the lead in his first two starts prior to the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn four weeks ago. Things didn’t go that way perfect for the 3-year-old colt by Eskendereya out of the Street Cry (IRE) mare Northern Station. He is definitely well bred to succeed as the races get longer.

The track condition the day of the Southwest was unique and Kent Desormeaux called it “like peanut-butter”. The chart caller had RETIREMENT FUND stalking the pace in the three-path before making a four-wide bid and faltering.

In all honestly, he broke well, the jockey didn’t have to do very much with him, he settled nicely about four lengths off the lead, saved ground on the inside, he shifted out heading into the far turn, and began to gain ground three-to-four-wide. His speed just simply was not fast enough. He got outrun. It didn’t have anything to do with switching leads late or finding trouble. He simply just got outrun. COMBATANT came up on his outside and he failed to sustain his bid.

HYNDFORD (Joe Bravo/Todd Pletcher)

Well here we have the biggest wildcard in the race. One of the few 3-year-old’s I have not seen yet this year. This colt by Street Cry(IRE)out of the Candy Ride mare Niji’s Grand Girl is well bred for the distance and should succeed in the classic distances. He pressed the pace in his debut at Gulfstream on the turf before weakening in the lane but showed fight. In his maiden breaking victory, he again pressed the pace three-wide and attacked off the turn, this time on dirt, at odds of 4-5. He had a bit of trouble bumping with a foe in deep stretch.

The biggest note and it will be the reason this one will probably will be less than 7-2 tomorrow. He set the pace in his most recent allowance race but couldn’t hang on. He was caught in the final sixteenth by Rebel Stakes winner MAGNUM MOON.

Whether or not you like MAGNUM MOON, his pedigree and/or conformation, he won that race going away. HYNDFORD’s biggest problem is his running style. In every race he has ran, he has been close to the lead or on it, in my opinion, he is going to have to try and settle back a little bit farther early on in the Louisiana Derby to have any chance of getting this done.

If Bravo decides to send, we just have another reason to favor the closers in the race. This is a very similar type of entry to what Pletcher did last year, entering these horses with little experience, and trying to qualify for the Derby in their 3^rd or 4^th start. It worked out last year for him, but I have yet to see an Always Dreaming type favorite.

SNAPPER SINCLAIR (Jose L Ortiz/ Asmussen)

The 3yo bay colt nearly pulled one of the biggest upsets in modern Derby prep history in the Risen Star. Had he had just a little more speed late, he would have been on the other side of the nose in the photo. Tough breaks happen and Steve Asmussen has had his share along the way.

This colt had two very impressive victories leading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and I am not sure what exactly happen that day in California, but SNAPPER SINCLAIR laid an egg. He finished 12^th of 14 entries and he was caught wide while steadying on the turn. Either way, he went from 5^th at the first call to 11^th at the second call. Personally, I am going to just draw a line through that race. It was on the turf for one and it’s going to tell me very little about how he is going to perform tomorrow.

He showed early speed in the Lecomte in January. His first start in seven weeks. He then came back a little quicker in the Risen Star and grabbed the early lead but it wasn’t uncontested. He was head-to-head with BRAVAZO pretty much the entire way. He finished with a very game effort and he earned 20 points towards the Kentucky Derby qualification standings as a result. He currently holds 22 points and might need roughly 10 more to qualify.

LONE SAILOR (James Graham/Thomas Amoss)

We haven’t seen LONE SAILOR since the Lecomte in mid-January. Following his poor effort in his 3yo debut, he opted for an allowance race in February and ran 2^nd to a fellow foe which he will also face today in DARK TEMPLAR.

Amoss switched tactics in his most recent effort and tried to let LONE SAILOR settle off the pace and make a run at the leaders. Considering how much speed there is in this race, it could be very beneficial to this type of horse. He has an extremely hot trainer (30% in 114 starts). He got jockey Graham to stick with him for this mount. That can’t hurt and it actually tells me that he might think that he has something with this horse.

His speed figures on paper are simply not very fast in comparison with othersin the field. His fastest start came in his lone start in the slop as a 2yo at Saratoga in which he won by 11 lengths.

MY BOY JACK (Kent Desormeaux/K Desormeaux)

Team Desormeaux made me look like an expert at this game when they scored in the Southwest on Presidents Day. A lot of things went there way that day, track conditions, rail bias, and the race set-up beautifully for them turning for home.

Whether it was the peanut-buttery track or just all out talent, this 3yo colt by Creative Cause ran away with the Southwest in style. He is going to need to produce a similar run here to earn enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. For winning the Southwest, he earned 10 points. He also earned two points for his 3^rd place finish in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita.

Where do those efforts put him in this field?

At this point, I am a bit undecided when it comes to MY BOY JACK. I loved him in the Southwest Stakes. As far as pace scenario goes, I love him again, but what kind odds can I get on him. There are a number of factors that go into how I would bet this race.

DARK TEMPLAR (Florent Geroux/Brendan Walsh)

First time we have seen this 3yo colt by Tapit out of the Storm Cat mare Hurricane Flag. Debuted with a front-running victory at Churchill in November. Then he was completely out run by PRINCIPE GUILHERME who we saw in the Lecomte. He was then bumped at the break and had major trouble late in his 3^rd start in which today’s foe RETIREMENT FUND got the win.

In his latest start, he was able to better LONE SAILOR who we have already talked about and seen during this Road to the Derby.

Simply, it just comes down to how good is he? He hasn’t really proved a whole lot against the better of the 3yo crop. Or at least what we think is the better of the 3yo crop. Personally, I think his versatility is an asset, but he is going to really have to step up his game to make an impact on the outcome.

He was a $475k purchase at the Keeneland September Sales and I have a feeling that this one has a big future in front of him somewhere down the line.

I’ll try to get something on paper for the Sunland Derby. I likely will just give you a quick preview of my selections as I currently have not looked at the entries.

Next week, we will cover the UAE Derby and the Florida Derby. Both are 100-40-20-10 races.

It is going to be interesting where the point cutoff this year for qualification ends up. If I had to predict it right now, I would guess somewhere between 35-40. Your thoughts would be appreciate in the comments?

Grade 2 – Risen Star from The Fair Grounds Racecourse and Slots gets a quality field of 10 including Lecomte winner INSTILLED REGARD.

The first Kentucky Derby prep that will virtually guarantee the victor a slot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs for the 144^th Run for the Roses is the Grade 2 – Risen Star Stakes from The Fair Grounds in New Orleans, Louisiana. Grade 3 – Lecomte Stakes winner, INSTILLED REGARD, is listed as the 8-5 morning-line favorite. Jockey, Javier Castellano stays aboard as the 3-year-old colt by ARCH out of by the FORESTRY mare ENHANCING looks for his 3^rd career victory in his 6^th start. At this point, INSTILLED REGARD’s success beyond two turns puts him near the top of many horse racing analysts Derby favorites. He takes on a full, very tough field in the Risen Star and will need to bring the same form he brought in the Lecomte on January 13^th.

Here is a short breakdown of each entrant in Saturday’s Risen Star from The Fair Grounds Racecourse and Slots at approximately 5:03pm CST.

#1 – HIGH NORTH (Corey Lanerie – Brad Cox)

With a very good effort following a troubled start in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes back in November, HIGH NORTH has every reason to improve in his 3-year-old debut. Corey Lanerie sticks with the mount for Brad Cox and they are winning at 31% and are in great form. At a 15-1 morning-line, HIGH NORTH is a very sneaky play if Cox has him in peak form and is going for the win.

FINAL WORD: I really want to say, watch and see this race, but with the odds you could get in this race, there is a chance he boasts the highest value. If he goes off at higher than 20-1, I will put some money to win on him and use him in exactas. POSSIBLE PLAYER

#2 – NOBLE INDY (John Velazquez – Todd Pletcher)

Does Johnny V. ride for anyone else these days? With a nearly nine length romp in his 2-year-old debut, NOBLE INDY showed resiliency in his first run going two turns in an allowance victory at Gulfstream Park. His race history looks so much like other Pletcher entries last season. MALAGACY and ONE LINER had similar looks on paper and won their first start in graded company.

FINAL WORD: It’s hard to dismiss any entry of Pletcher’s at this point. I would be a bit cautious because of the pressure I think NOBLE INDY gets going for the lead. If he can rate off the lead and attack on the far turn, he has a decent chance to hit the board. BIG QUESTION, IS HE AS CLASSY AS HE LOOKS ON PAPER, NONE OF THE HORSES HE FACED HAVE COME BACK TO WIN RECENTLY.

#3 – GIVEMEAMINIT (Shaun Bridgmohan – Dallas Stewart)

I love Dallas Stewart and respect how he trains his racehorses. He has the long-term in mind and would not enter a horse if he didn’t have a plan. GIVEMEAMINIT faced some very tough competition as a 2-year-old. He was beat by SPORTING CHANCE and FREE DROP BILLY last Summer at Saratoga in the Grade 1 – Hopeful Stakes. He followed it up with a couple great efforts in the Breeders’ Futurity and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, both Grade 1’s. As a Louisiana-bred, he came back to sprint in his final day as a 2-year-old in the Louisiana Futurity (BT) in which he ran a very good 2^nd after getting caught wide. He final got to visit the winners’ circle, winning by eight lengths on January 28^th at odds of 1-9.

FINAL WORD: He is very experienced for his age and has shown the versatility to compete at five different tracks, but his experience going two turns is sketchy at best. He will need a hot pace up front and NEEDS TO AVOID TROUBLE, NEEDS PACE.

#4 – SNAPPER SINCLAIR (Adam Beschizza – Steve Asmussen)

Well, I don’t know much about Beschizza but he did very well to get SNAPPER SINCLAIR into third in the Lecomte last month. He will try to push on the lead and win much like he did at Kentucky Downs. The big difference is he is not running on grass.

FINAL WORD: He proved he is not limited to turf routes, his sire, City Zip was quick and he is proving to have a quick turn as well. I THINK HE IS PART OF A PACE THAT MELTS AWAY

#5 – INSTILLED REGARD (J.J. Castellano – Jerry Hollendorfer)

Castellano took over for Mike Smith/Drayden Van Dyke when INSTILLED REGARD shipped East. He proved what a great rider he is guiding him home and clearing off in the stretch. He looked like he had much more after winning at 1 mile-70 yards

FINAL WORD: Even though INSTILLED REGARD has hit the board in every start and is getting mad respect from people across the country. I THINK HE COULD HAVE TROUBLE being a bit wide into turn one and I THINK HE HITS THE BOARD somewhere between 2^nd and 5^th.

Want the rest of the field and the my picks for the entire card at The Fair Grounds. Look at my bets from last week at Tampa Bay and tell me if it’s worth it!

2018 Lecomte Stakes Preview, Analysis and Selections

Fair Grounds Racecourse – Saturday, January 13, 2018

Race 9 – The Lecomte Stakes – Grade III – 1m 70yds – Dirt

–1– – Lone Sailor

Jockey: Miguel Mena Sire: Majestic Warrior (A.P. Indy)

Trainer: Thomas Amoss Dam: Ambitious (Mr. Greeley)

J/T Last 60 Days: Win%=24 ITM%=51% KEESEP – $120,000

Debuted at Saratoga in August, ran a solid first race after breaking a bit slow. He did show that he was capable that day at odds of 7-1. Came back in his 2^nd start with Florent Geroux up and dominated. He was ridden out in the final furlong earning a Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) of 93.

Following the elite effort at Saratoga on a sloppy track in his 2^nd start, he entered the G1-Breeders’ Futurity where he started slow again going two turns for the first time. He did show the ability to close from the back in the final three furlongs. He got up for 3^rd behind the well known 2yo star – FREE DROP BILLY.

His next two starts in the Street Sense went well, but he was beat by a head at odds of 9-2 after being forced to work hard for the final half mile. He just didn’t have enough in the end. A month later they decided to enter the G2 – KYJC, he started last was forced to angle out 5wide and came running very late.

ANALYSIS: It is very apparent that the horse is extremely talented. If he has improved at all over the past 6 weeks, he would be worth a long look in the paddock. He has proven that he can run at two turns which is important in these early prep races. At the right odds he makes a lot of sense. HE MUST BE CONSIDERED AT THE RIGHT PRICE

VALUE LINE: 12-1+

–2– – Snapper Sinclair

Jockey: Adam Beschizza Sire: City Zip (Carson City)

Trainer: Steven Asmussen Dam: True Addiction (Yes It’s True)

J/T Last 60 Days: Win%=FTS ITM%=FTS OBSAPR’17 – $180,000

SNAPPER SINCLAIR debuted at Belmont in July at odds of 21-1, it looked like a true prep of a race that they were not trying to win as Jose Ortiz took hold of his mount early and he ran evenly throughout.

He followed that up with a jockey change to Asmussen’s go to guy in Santana Jr. His second start ended up being a key race for more than one horse. He won by tracking the pace and edging clear in the stretch drive to win by four lengths. The second place finisher also came back to win in his next start.

His third start was just as impressive at Kentucky Downs. He won the $350k TIShowJuv by similar fashion, drawing clear of his rival in the final sixteenth of a mile.

Asmussen got a bit greedy entering the colt in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, it didn’t go very well, in fact, the colt fell flat after being steadied near the quarter mile pole. He showed brief speed through the half and retreated.

ANALYSIS: It’s tough to decide where the SNAPPER falls in this field. He has two very nice wins on the grass in his record. His only dirt start was a race that they likely were not trying to win. He also has never won at two turns. At this point, it’s very difficult to consider him for the top spot in this group. Add into that, a jockey with limited experience in Beschizza and it’s a very long shot that he hits the top stop. On the other hand, his Prime Power Number on Brisnet is 4^th in the field which would give him the benefit of the doubt if he takes to the dirt. I just think it’s asking a little too much. NOT TODAY, WATCHING

VALUE LINE: 25-1+

–3– – Wonder Gadot

Jockey: John Velazquez Sire: Medaglia D’Oro (El Prado (IRE))

Trainer: Mark Casse Dam: Loving Vindication (Vindication)

J/T Last 60 Days: Win%=33ITM%=67 OBSAPR’17 – $325,000

It would have been great to see this filly enter the field against the boys, but it is extremely likely she will opt for the Silverbulletday Stakes where she will be favored.Had she been entered in the race, her speed would have definitely played a role considering she was a pace factor at nine furlongs in her recent stakes win at Aqueduct.

ANALYSIS: SCRATCHED

–4– – Analyze This Jet

Jockey: Sasha Risenhoover Sire: Overanalyze (Dixie Union)

Trainer: Terry Eoff Dam: Jettin Black (Offlee Wild)

J/T Last 60 Days: Win%=0 ITM%=20 KEESEP’16 – $5,000

How cool would it be to see a $5,000 purchase make a run at the Kentucky Derby? I think it would be pretty damn cool. The problem is this horse had pretty much run like a cheap purchase until the last three starts. It took six starts to break the maiden. The jockey change to Lane Luzzi may have done the trick. Two wins this past October within a stretch of ten days definitely opened eyes as he won the El Joven. He followed that up by entering the Clever Trevor on Breeders’ Cup week and pretty much having no impact.

ANALYSIS: I am not sure what Terry Eoff was thinking by entering this race, but it’s a definite possibility that they could scratch out of it and look for something else. At least that’s what I think they should do. If they do make it to the starting gate 50-1 to 99-1 would be

VALUE LINE: 99-1+

–5– – Kowboy Karma

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. Sire: Kodiak Kowboy (Posse)

Trainer: Larry Jones Dam: Just Jan (Any Given Saturday)

J/T: FTS Bred/Owned – Privately

This gelding is a little harder to handicap considering he began his career at Delaware and Monmouth. It’s tough to gauge the competition he faced early in his career. He was ridden out and won by 12 in his debut at Delaware. He followed that up to win at 1-9 in the StrkYrClr Stakes which was run at 5 1/2 furlongs. None of the horses he defeated that ran ITM came back to do anything. The fact he settled off the pace and attacked for the lead was a good sign and his running style as a 2yo was definitely impressive.

He shipped over to Monmouth and stretched out to a mile in the SaplingL75k Stakes and he proved at odds of 1-2 that he can run two turns, he was just caught wide and beat by a better horse that day. Note: The 3^rd place finisher came back to win his next start.

The owner/trainer decided to go ‘big-time’ and enter the Grade 1 – Champagne Stakes at Belmont. They caught a very tough field but they did get respect being bet down to 8-1. After settling back a bit in the field, Cintron was forced to take him 7wide and they closed some ground but flattened out and got fourth. Note: The 2^nd/3rd place finishers came back to win their next starts.

In his most recent start at Laurel Park in the 100k Jeff Lewis III Stakes, KOWBOY KARMA ran his race again, settling off the pace and making a run off the far turn. The same problems arose as he was forced to go 5w/6w and came on to get 2^nd.

ANALYSIS: With over 8 weeks of rest and three solid workouts on the tab, The most difficult layoff of a horses career is always the one leading up to their first race. He proved he could dazzle in that effort. I would expect Larry Jones to have this one geared up for this race. HE MUST BE LOOKED AT CLOSELY. And he belongs on all exotic tickets.

VALUE LINE: 8-1+

–6– – Believe in Royalty

Jockey: Robby Albarado Sire: Tapit (Pulpit)

Trainer: Larry Jones Dam: Believe You Can (Proud Citizen)

J/T: 0% 2 Starts KEESEP’16 – $900,000

My first glance at this colt was he was entered in this race as a rabbit for the #5 horse. Then I saw how much money they paid for him and I realized that I might be right about the rabbit factor, but this horse might be good enough to just run away from everybody.

His debut at Delaware was a good effort but nothing to gloat about. He ran 3^rd and made up some ground in the lane to hit the board. It was noted that he was caught wide early breaking from the 8 post. That could have something to do with being green his debut.

He followed that debut with back to back wins in a MSW and AOC race. He won both comfortable going gate to wire in both at short odds. He then entered the Springboard Mile at Remington and ran as flat as flat can be. He proved nothing settling off the pace and he obviously will make the attempt to go for the lead in the Lecomte.

ANALYSIS:

This horse must be taken seriously just on pedigree alone and his ability to #6 and vice versa. I like both of Larry’s entrants and wouldn’t be surprised if either horse won. IN THE MIX

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FIELD and THE BETS THAT WILL MAKE YOU WINNER, PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO MY HANDICAPPING SERVICES AND SELECTIONS BY E-MAILING ME dadams0211@gmail.com

THE 2018 ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY HAS BEGUN AND AS A FIRST WEEK SPECIAL I WILL GIVE YOU A FEW PLAYS FOR THIS RACE.

$20 – Win/Place #5

$0.50 Trifecta – #5 with #1, #6, #7, #10, #12 with #1, #6, #7, #10, #12

$0.50 Trifecta – #1, #6, #7, #10, #12 with #5 with #1, #6, #7, #10, #12

$0.50 Trifecta – #1, #6, #7, #10, #12 with #1, #6, #7, #10, #12 with #5

and just in case…

$0.50 Trifecta – #6 with #1, #5, #7, #10, #12 with #1, #5, #7, #10, #12

Kentucky Derby UPDATE: Trainer Joe Sharp has Derby in his cross-hairs after Girvin’s :59.3 five furlong work on Saturday.

GIRVIN – Sire: Tale of Ekati (Tale of the Cat) Dam: Catch the Moon (Malibu Moon)

After hearing about Girvin’s quarter crack my first thought was he’s done, but then Saturday morning came about. A tweet from Joe Sharp stated that the fractions of Girvin’s five furlong workout were exceptional and that’s exactly what they were, exceptional. He looked like he isn’t feeling any problems in hit feet. With the defections of Malagacy and Battalion Runner, the Kentucky Derby field needed some good news and they got it from the Sharp entry. The Louisiana Derby winner clocked in a final work time of :59.3 at Keeneland Racecourse Saturday. As the 3-year-old with the most Derby qualification points, it would have been solemn news to hear he wasn’t pointing towards starting next week, but Sharp gave all indication that he will continue on schedule to start in the Derby.

It can be taken a number of ways when a horse takes time off of the track to work in an equine pool. Girvin did exactly that which gave indication that trainer Joe Sharp wanted him off of his feet as much as possible, but wanted to keep him in shape at the same time. The move may prove to be the key to getting Girvin into the Derby starting gate. Quarter cracks have been proven to be overcome in the past, and it looks like Girvin will be given the chance to prove his wins in Louisiana this Spring were no joke and in fact he is the horse to beat next Saturday. He currently sits anywhere from 12-1 to 20-1 in many early Derby odds boards.

I went into a breakdown of Girvin’s pedigree profile in a previous article

https://kentuckyderbycontenders.wordpress.com/2017/04/15/2017-kentucky-derby-analysis-louisiana-derby-winner-girvin-looks-to-give-the-team-of-joe-sharp-and-rosie-sharp-napravnik-their-first-shot-at-derby-glory/

Right now, it appears that off of the recent work, it’s time to rethink where Girvin fits into the Derby picture and pace scenario.

MALAGACY and BATTALION drop out of the 2017 Kentucky Derby. LOOKIN AT LEE and SONNETEER next in line.

As predicted earlier in the week, Malagacy, a 3-year-old colt by Shackleford, opted out of the Kentucky Derby to point towards the Preakness Stakes. Stablemate of Malagacy, Battalion Runner, a 3-year-old colt by Unbridled’s song out of the Tapit mare Tamboz, also opted out of the Kentucky Derby after he put in a very poor workout on Friday.

Todd Pletcher did make it clear that Malagacy will train to run in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico which is run on May 20th. Battalion Runner could also start in Maryland, but after the recent poor workout, he will have to show a lot more in the mornings before Pletcher decides to start him anywhere.

Lookin At Lee, a 3-year-old colt by Lookin At Lucky out of Langara Lass, has not shown a whole lot in his campaign as a 3-year-old, but his late running style could suit him well in the Kentucky Derby if he gets the pace scenario he needs. The problem is there may be better closers in the race, but it will all come down to who gets the trip needed.

Trainer Steve Asmussen uses a number of jockeys across the country, but he could stick with Luis Contreras. He has a high win percentage in route races and it can’t hurt to have a rider who knows how to save energy for the final three furlongs in a race that is run longer than any of these horses have ever gone.

Sonneteer, a 3-year-old colt by Midnight Lute out of Ours, earned a trip to the Kentucky Derby by getting his nose down on the wire ina the Rebel Stakes to earn 2nd place points. He then followed that up with an uninspiring 4th place effort in the Arkansas Derby that earned him enough points to be a fringe candidate for the Derby. Lucky enough for the Desormeaux clan, they have a shot to win on the first Saturday in May, but it’s an extremely long one. If Sonneteer cashes as the winner in the Derby, the IRS is going to have the biggest payday of anyone.

5 days left – the time is just flying by this year, Good luck handicapping!

For free past performances of the Kentucky Derby, check out other articles on my blog and website.

Also, if you are interested in getting a full package of picks and winners checkout the mainpage of my website – http://www.kentuckyderbycontenders.wordpress.com

Malagacy likely will opt out of the Kentucky Derby and work towards the Preakness Stakes

Todd Pletcher will announce via Twitter the official decision more than likely tomorrow, but I have it on pretty good authority, he will opt out of the Kentucky Derby and train for the Preakness Stakes on May 20th from Pimlico.

Which horses are going to MISS the Kentucky Derby?

This morning we got to see many of the Derby hopefuls hit the track at Churchill Downs. Todd Pletcher sent out all five of his qualified horses and there was a big difference from top to bottom in the quality of their works. Classic Empire has looked decent on the track, but I wouldn’t call it the look of a champion. Gunnevera has looked prepared and decent since he showed up at Churchill. For a horse that has been in training since last Summer, Gunnevera is going to be more prepared and experienced then most horses in this field but he also may be a bit overused as a young racehorse.

Here are some surprising horses that I think will OPT OUT of the Kentucky Derby.

#1 – Malagacy

Sadly, I think this horses workout was simply just not good enough to change Todd Pletcher’s mind whether he should start on May 6th. I think he is a very good miler, but the distance is the biggest question mark. There is a very good chance Pletcher points Malagacy towards the Preakness or some other stakes race for 3-year-old’s that fit him a little better.

#2 – Patch or Battalion Runner

It was very apparent in Patch’s workout that he was not up to the class of Tapwrit. It looked like Tapwrit could put him away at any point, and I think that will trigger Todd Pletcher to start just three horses in the Derby. Patch could possibly still get the nod if Battalion Runner misses the Derby do to very lackluster performance this morning. Battalion Runner was very poor and looked like he had no interest in being on the track this morning. Pletcher needs to decide who he will send with Tapwrit and Always Dreaming or whether he only goes with the two. My personal opinion is that Battalion Runner should get the nod.

#3 – Girvin

We found out that Girvin has a quarter crack in one of his hooves and that is not what you want to hear leading up to the Derby. Foot problems have ended so many great horses chance at dawning the roses on the first Saturday of May. I feel bad for Joe Sharp and Rosie Sharp-Napravnik, I was really rooting for them. Hopefully, they can figure something out and get him the starting gate.

#4 – Cloud Computing

Has already announced that they are pointing in a different direction.

#5 – Conquest Mo Money

Was not nominated for the Triple Crown and will point to a later classic race or something else.

As of April 28th, the starting field for the Kentucky Derby looks like it will be this

Classic Empire
Irap
Gormley
Irish War Cry
Thunder Snow(IRE)
Always Dreaming
Gunnevera
Practical Joke
J Boys Echo
State of Honor
Tapwrit
Hence
Fast and Accurate
McCraken
Battle of Midway
Patch/Battalion Runner
Untrapped
Lookin At Lee
Sonneteer
Royal Mo

OUT: Cloud Computing, Conquest Mo Money

LIKELY OPT OUT: Girvin, Malagacy, Patch/Battalion Runner

2017 Kentucky Derby Free Past Performances, Analysis, Selections, Picks, and the all important, “How to bet the Derby?”

It is a dream of many everyday handicappers at the racetrack to cash a trifecta on the Kentucky Derby, so be warned, this is no simple task. It could cost you from $0.10 to $25.000 to make your Derby dreams happen, but I promise you this. I will give you my honest advice whether you bet for dimes or diamonds.

When you walk into your local horse track many become awestruck at the number of people waving their tickets around, holding their dreams in their hands. There are a couple for-sure sights at the track; beautiful women in beautiful hats, amazing animals enormous in size, and you will also see the local schmuck who stooping for winning tickets that novices threw away by accident that could be worth their dinner for the night or more for that matter.

Click here for Brisnet Past Performances:

http://interactives.courier-journal.com/docs/derby2017/derby.pdf

DON’T DO THIS ON DERBY DAY

DON’T be the guy that walks into the betting line without his bets prepared, you will waste your time, the mutuel teller’s time, and everybody behind you in line will be pissed off.
DO NOT – BET $2 to win on every horse – YOU WILL LOSE 99% OF THE TIME!
DO NOT – Box every horse in the race when playing exotic wagers. If you don’t know what box means, research it.
DO NOT – Take your money out of an ATM at the racetrack, the fees are outrageous and that’s the last place you want to lose a percentage of your money.
DO NOT – Make a bet you do not understand. This is just ridiculous. If some yo-ho in the racetrack is trying to talk you into a bet, he is probably already broke.
DO NOT – Spend more than your comfortable losing. Been there done that and it just makes for a rotten life. You will never get back what you lost. Betting to pay the bills is extremely volatile and you will never have the right mindset.

DO’S ON DERBY DAY

If you have never been to the racetrack or OTB you are going to – DEFINITELY visit the information booth is and find everything you need to know about what you need for that day. Buy your programs, table to sit at, and whatever else you may need to be comforable. FYI – The first race on Derby Day typically starts somewhere around 10:30am ET, GET THERE EARLY!
Buy a Daily Racing Form if you do not know the program numbers. It will allow you to prepare for your wagers and do some last minute handicapping if you want haven’t go to doing this yet.
Visit the paddock before every race, pay very close attention to how each horse looks, make notes, then go back after you know who won and finished in the top three, review your notes. Look for consistencies in the horses that run good. You will learn more and more over time.
MAKE A PLAN! What kind of money are you looking to win? ROI-Return on bets
1. Win-Place-Show bets = Low risk, least profit, Common Cost: $2 $100
2. Exacta-Daily Double = Moderate risk, low to high profit, Cost: $2 – $24
3. Trifecta-Superfecta = High risk, medium to very high profit, Cost: $2 – $250
4. Pick 3-Pick 4-Pick 5 = Very High Risk, High Profit, Cost: $2 – $1500
5. Pick 6 – Pentafecta = Highest Risk, Highest Profit, Cost: $0.20 – $5000+

Many beginning bettors will stick to the mainstay bets that they are familiar with WIN, PLACE, SHOW, EXACTA, TRIFECTA, and DAILY DOUBLES. Most novice bettors will not venture outside of that range. They will bet what they were taught and what they know. As a former mutuel teller, when the novice player takes a risk, it’s typically a 3 or 4 horse exacta/trifecta box. With the invention of the $0.10 superfecta, more and more players will even bet $0.10 in a race. Most of the time though, they have been taught to box four horses for the $2.40.

What I teach on my website and will focus on throughout my articles and tweets are a few types of bets that have a low rate of success but much higher payouts.

My Kentucky Derby advice will focus on the WIN BET, EXACTA BET, the KENTUCKY OAKS-KENTUCKY DERBY DOUBLE, and the Pick 4 that finishes with the Derby.

Most of my advice will revolve around what situations horses will run together. Simply, if the speed holds up in the race which horses will likely finish together near the top. If the pace falls apart, which closers are most likely to take advantage.

I also will focus on which horses have breeding advantages built in that will help them succeed at 10 furlongs. It is easily the longest these horses have run in their career and it is a big test for many of these horses that are not meant to run nearly this far.

Here is the likely field as of April 27th, 2017 with MY MORNING LINE:

Classic Empire (9/2):

Always Dreaming (6/1):

Gunnevera (6/1):

Irish War Cry (6/1):

McCraken (8/1):

Gormley (10/1):

Girvin (12/1):

Irap (15/1):

Tapwrit (15/1):

Malagacy (20/1):

Battalion Runner (20/1):

Lookin At Lee (20/1):

Practical Joke (20/1):

Thunder Snow (20/1):

J Boys Echo (25/1):

Hence (25/1):

Battle of Midway (25/1):

State of Honor (30/1):

Patch (30/1):

Fast and Accurate (50/1):

Untrapped (50/1):

Royal Mo (99/1):

Sonneteer (99/1):

Conquest Mo Money *OUT*

Cloud Computing *OUT*

Local Hero **AE – 99/1**

Master Plan **AE – Belmont hopeful?**

Blueridge Traveler **AE – Preakness**

WHO DO YOU BET?

Right now, it’s an extremely tough question with more than a week left to prep up to the Derby. We are exactly seven days out and the news will start to break as each horse arrives to Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

At this point, I think the best bets are the following horses…

GUNNEVERA:

You have to think that this horse bred by BRANDYWINE FARM and Stephen Upchurch to the sire DIALED IN. If this horse wins the Kentucky Derby, his trainer, Antonio Sano may have made one of the best swindles ever in the sport of horse racing. He purchased this colt for the monster price of $16,000 on behalf of PEACOCK RACING STABLES, LLC. In other words, practically nothing for a Kentucky Derby contender.

His last start was in Grade 1 – Florida Derby where he ran 3rd. It could be a little deceiving though. He was running into a very slow pace on a speed favoring track at Gulfstream Park in Florida.

I think he could be the best closer in the Kentucky Derby field and if we can get a :21.4-:22.3 fraction to the first quarter and then a :44.3-:45.2 to the half, Gunnevera will get a perfect set up for what kind of racehorse he is. This will all depend on where the speed horses are located after the post-position draw.

We need to remember that there are a few horses that simply DO NOT have the stamina to make it 10 furlongs. One thing that Gunnevera is going to miss, the lack of Japanese shipper Epicharis hurts. He would have really helped in the speed department. He would have ensured a speedy early going. Even without him, I think the pace set-up gets into that range. I will breakdown each speed horse when the draw comes out next Wednesday.

Gunnevera also has Unbridled blood in his female line and that should definitely help in the stamina department. If he proves to be in right form next week in the mornings, I will have to find some major reasons not to play this horse.

THUNDER SNOW(IRE):

I really think Sheikh Mohamed may have himself a winning Equine this time around if he decides to send him to Louisville. I have to believe that him being nominated and the Sheikh’s want to win the Derby, Thunder Snow will make the trip.

He showed me a slot when beating Epicharis by a nose in the UAE Derby. When watching the races live, I thought that was the most impressive of the three Derby preps that weekend. That included the Rebel Stakes and I believe it was the Spiral, but I am not positive on that one.

I will go into more detail why I like this horse in my article next week.

Here is another major take I would go by…

I am throwing out all the California-shippers

Irap, Gormley, Battle of Midway, Royal Mo, and Sonneteer will not be on any of my horizontal tickets (Pick 3’s and 4’s). I cannot use them in any vertical positions unless I am hitting the all button.

Classic Empire is LEGIT

Just because the favorite has won at such a high percentage recently doesn’t mean that he is going to win this year. Each year should be taken on an individual basis and the fact is if Classic Empire looks in proper physical condition during his paddock preview and out on the track, he must be on your tickets. He is that good. On the other hand, if he is showing a high amount of kidney sweat between his rear legs and on the reigns near his neck, I would be very leery of him lasting 10 furlongs. It just is a bad sign. If he acts up at all he will be using energy. Pay extreme attention to every horse but I am going to put a good picture/bad picture below so you can see the difference.

Here is a picture of bad kidney sweat on the neck during a race

And here is Classic Empire winning the Arkansas Derby, the dirt disguises it but he looked extremely good that day.

TIER 1 CONTENDERS: (Legitimate chance of winning)

Gunnevera — Classic Empire — Thunder Snow — Practical Joke

Tapwrit — Hence — J Boys Echo — State of Honor

Tier 2: (I can’t use these horses on top but they can win in some circumstances)

Always Dreaming — Irish War Cry — McCraken — Girvin

Tier 3: (Need everything to break perfectly)

Lookin At Lee — Gormley — Malagacy

Tier 4: I don’t think they can win it at this time

Irap — Fast and Accurate — Royal Mo — Battle of Midway

Battallion Runner — Untrapped — Patch — Sonneteer

McCraken looks to improve off early-Spring setback and give Ian Wilkes his first Kentucky Derby victory.

Ladies and gentleman there are less than 11 days until those starting gates open for the 143^rd Running of the Kentucky Derby. One thing is for certain, this year the tepidity surrounding favoritism can be felt from coast to coast. Typically, among everyday handicappers you will get a sense of a “hot horse” on people’s radar; for example, Orb in 2013. This year I just don’t feel that sentiment among the smart brains in the sport. It seems like everyone likes a different horse, they all have varying value lines on where certain horses should be, and it just means it is going to be a fantastic betting race. I took a little break on breaking down horses, but let’s get back it, with the limited time we have until post positions are drawn, I will write as many as possible leading up to the day of the official post-position draw, and here we go with today’s first choice equine, Crack-a-lack-lack-lack!!! Ernie McCracken is back. Well, I don’t know this, but it would be great if this horse is named after the character in the long lost comedy, Kingpin, starring Woody Harrelson and Bill Murray. I doubt the horse is named after that character, but maybe the 3-year-old equine has the edge of champion. Here is his breakdown…

McCraken (Ghostzapper – Ivory Empress, Awesome Again)

One considered the favorite to win the Derby prior to his skipped start in the Tampa Bay Derby and then what was an okay effort on the comeback in the Blue Grass. To be honest, I wanted to see a lot more out of McCraken in the Blue Grass than the effort he put forth. I understand that he had not raced since February, but the horse won in his 2-year-old debut, isn’t that technically the longest layoff of all? Either way, you have to grade the race on a few factors, McCraken is a closer/deep closer, the pace in the Blue Grass was pretty slow, but then we need to grade how well the front-running speed types finished the race – Wild Shot set a semi-pressured pace with Irap to his outside, even so, the half-mile fraction was :48.1, and that was not too fast at all. Then lets take into account, the winner Irap, did not change leads until he was a furlong past the finish line. In other words, he was a very tired horse, and he couldn’t be passed by Practical Joke or McCraken – Both who were supposedly two of the most elite closers in the 3-year-old class. So we need to ask ourselves the following questions – Was Irap just that good? Or, was the pace set up just too slow for McCraken to overcome in his first start back off a layoff.

PEDIGREE PROFILE:

Ghostzapper – He was a late developing 2-year-old and due to his ankles not being fully developed, late trainer Bobby Frankel, held him out of 2003 Triple Crown races. Crushed older horses in his last career start as a 3-year-old winning by more than six lengths in the G1 – Vosburgh.

Ended up having a very successful 4-year-old season after being delayed by a leg injury and wound winning Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year after winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic on the front end.

So in terms of McCraken getting strengths from Ghostzapper, you would have to say that he has attained the distance pedigree but he has lacked showing any form of true speed. In other terms, we saw him run into a field that lacked pace in his last start, and he ran 3^rd behind what some have deemed a soft ground and a blah Blue Grass.

Even so, when we compare him to that of his sire Ghostzapper, keep in mind his sire had to return from injury, McCraken is returning from injury. Ghostzapper won off injury and McCraken did not but he should get better off that effort. How much better? Not sure yet, I would like to see his last work leading up to the race, and his physical condition. As far as his sire is concerned, I would give him a B-, he gets the distance but has failed to show the speed brought forth in his male line.

FEMALE LINE: Dam – Ivory Empress

There isn’t a certain race type evident in the first few generations of his dam line. They all have done well on a variety of surfaces and classes across the board. She was blacktype stakes earning sprinter. She has produced two BTSW runners.

With the amount of speed that should have translated to McCraken from his dam line and directly from his sire Ghostzapper, it’s rather amazing that he runs to love from as far back as he does.

All that said, he definitely has shown solid late speed and a very good closing kick much like a turf horse. It will be interesting to see what kind of pace scenario develops out of the 20 horses entered in the Derby.

It’s still too early to declare it a speed-heavy or a race lacking speed, but I think that McCraken definitely gets positives from his female line when it comes to length and stamina. Even though his direct dam did her best sprinting, she has had her half-sister Mea Domina do well winning four turf stakes and also GSW in the Gamely BC Handicap (G1).

McCraken should also get the large heart gene from the dam side with Buckpasser being prominent.

OUTLOOK: McCraken’s post position should be of relative unimportance as long as he doesn’t get stuck down on the rail or extremely far out to get hung wide early. The reason I say this is he should be well back early, but he also wants to gain position to save ground. If he breaks somewhere between 4 and 10, I think that would be ideal, but not necessary.

I am not a huge fan of his moving into Derby week here soon, but I do think he has the necessary tools to run a very good race. He has the trainer and if he can be instinctive get solid position and start his run a little bit earlier than people expect, he could be very dangerous. Our most recent Derby winners have all had solid position leaving the far turn, it’s just hard to believe that McCraken will have good position with his running style. On the other hand, I never saw him coming from where he did in the Sam F. Davis, he loomed boldly on that difficult to close wide on Tampa surface and did it with ease. A lot depends on the coming week, check back for more news. And did I say odds, it’s hard to gauge this one, I am going to guess in the 8-1 range. At double digits, I think he presents value.

Share this:

BRAVAZO (Gary Stevens/D. Wayne Lukas)

NOBLE INDY (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher)

MARMELLO (Jack Gilligan/Mikhail Yanakov)

GIVEMEAMINIT (Javier Castellano/D. Stewart)

RETIREMENT FUND (S. Brdgmohan/S.Asmussen)

HYNDFORD (Joe Bravo/Todd Pletcher)

SNAPPER SINCLAIR (Jose L Ortiz/ Asmussen)

LONE SAILOR (James Graham/Thomas Amoss)

MY BOY JACK (Kent Desormeaux/K Desormeaux)

DARK TEMPLAR (Florent Geroux/Brendan Walsh)

Share this:

Share this:

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FIELD and THE BETS THAT WILL MAKE YOU WINNER, PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO MY HANDICAPPING SERVICES AND SELECTIONS BY E-MAILING ME dadams0211@gmail.com

THE 2018 ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY HAS BEGUN AND AS A FIRST WEEK SPECIAL I WILL GIVE YOU A FEW PLAYS FOR THIS RACE.

Share this:

GIRVIN – Sire: Tale of Ekati (Tale of the Cat) Dam: Catch the Moon (Malibu Moon)

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Click here for Brisnet Past Performances:

DON’T DO THIS ON DERBY DAY

DO’S ON DERBY DAY

WHO DO YOU BET?

GUNNEVERA:

THUNDER SNOW(IRE):

I am throwing out all the California-shippers

Classic Empire is LEGIT

TIER 1 CONTENDERS: (Legitimate chance of winning)

Tier 2: (I can’t use these horses on top but they can win in some circumstances)

Tier 3: (Need everything to break perfectly)

Tier 4: I don’t think they can win it at this time

Share this:

Share this: