It’s Derby week y’all – Visit Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose and get your PICKS, ANALYSIS, and a COMPLETE BREAKDOWN of the 144th Running of the Kentucky Derby.

Alright racing fans, we have reached the pinnacle for 3 year-old’s this Spring. The Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby is my 2^nd weekend of horse race during the year preceded by the Breeders’ Cup World Championships each Fall. We have a very solid Kentucky Derby field set to run on Saturday with at least two-thirds of the field with a realistic shot to hit the board. The Kentucky Oaks is highlighted by a couple elite fillies in Midnight Bisou and Monomoy Girl, and it’s going to take a remarkable effort to beat those two and 11 other fillies on Friday.

If you would like my complete breakdown of the Kentucky Derby, my Kentucky Derby picks, and/or my Kentucky Derby bets. Please make a donation to the following link and you will get exactly what I think is going to happen on Friday and Saturday.

It’s not as simple as just betting JUSTIFY and cashing in on the favorite for the 6^th straight year. One thing is for sure, I will make money Saturday. I have a few horses I really like in Kentucky and remember folks, I work at Canterbury all Summer with the ponies. My biggest profits are made at the local establishment Canterbury Park, but the Derby can change your life if you are willing to spend the money.

There will be thousands of people who pick winners on Friday and Saturday. There will be few who go home with thousands of dollars in your pocket. We all have good days and bad days, but there is a reason I have been writing about every Derby prep for the past six months. It’s for this weekend. This is when I take my shot and go for it all.

If you want the Kentucky Derby Saturday picks the minimum donation is $10 via the Pay Pal link below. If you would like Friday and Saturday’s picks the minimum donation is $15. If you want the entire Triple Crown picks the minimum donation is $25 and that includes (Oaks Friday, Derby Saturday, Preakness Saturday, and Belmont Saturday). Now please understand that is every race for each of those days. That adds up to about 50 races in total. You can imagine the amount of time that is going to consume if we do this the right way.

I have been doing this site for free for a long time for absolutely nothing. It’s a passion of mine and I would love to make money for myself as well as someone else. If you make a donation of $50 or more, I will send you all my picks for the Summer as well. They are not going to be the every race day type picks. These are going to be the picks that I know are great bets. If you want a piece of that. I appreciate it so much. You don’t quite understand how much this all means to me. I truly want you to be at the IRS window Saturday or if you are not at the track, earn an IRS certificate via your online account. There has been great news, the government switched the rules last year so you will only have to pay taxes on winnings of more than 300-1 or $1199+.

Good luck to everyone this weekend whether you donate to this site or not, I am rooting for you.

Kentucky Derby Contenders: MAGNUM MOON – Trainer Todd Pletcher, Horse Profile, Pedigree and Race Analysis, Picks and your guide to taking home the money on May 5th.

MAGNUM MOON

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: TBA (Luis Saez)

Started his career on January 13^th at Gulfstream Park after skipping his 2-year-old season. He pressed the pace in his debut before getting some mild urging to open up a clear lead nearing the quarter-pole. He was kept to task and looked very professional in doing so at odds of 7-2. Trainer Todd Pletcher sent the horse on a very typical path for his young, inexperienced 3-year-old’s. He entered him back in an allowance race a month later at Tampa Bay Downs. He went off as the 1-9 odds-on favorite and jockey Luis Saez took a slightly different approach with him. They dropped back to 4^th position, settled for the first five furlongs, and then he let the horse finish the race on his own in the final quarter mile. It really opened my eyes to the possibility of Magnum Moon getting owners’ Bob and Lawana Low back to the Kentucky Derby for the first time since their grey colt Steppenwolfer earned 3^rd in 2006 behind Barbaro.

Following his first-level allowance win, Pletcher entered Magnum Moon in the Grade 2 – Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Jockey Luis Saez took a very similar approach to what he did in his second career start, they allowed him to settle off of a moderate-slow pace and let him do the work needed to get the job done in the stretch. He drew off late to win by 3-1/2 lengths earning a career high Brisnet Speed Figure (BSF) of 100.

Having already earned the points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, Pletcher decided not to ‘lay-off-the-gas’ with MAGNUM MOON. With the absence of a 2-year-old campaign, it is my guess that Pletcher is trying to teach this horse as much as possible with him having little experience on actual race-days.

MAGNUM MOON made a mockery of the field in the Arkansas Derby winning by roughly four-lengths. Interestingly though, he did drift out in midstretch and looked a little leg weary. It didn’t matter though, he gathered himself and galloped out professionally after winning as the 4-5 odds-on favorite.

Analysis: Now it’s up to us to decide what exactly to make of 3-year-old by Malibu Moon out of the Unbridled’s Song mare Dazzling Song. It’s hard to pick-a-part a horse that has never lost and done very little wrong along the way. I mentioned the fact he looked a bit tired at the end of the Arkansas Derby, but that’s expected from a horse with only four starts and him making his first start at nine furlongs. It’s not ideal but it’s not a reason to dismiss him as your Derby-pick.

As far as pedigree goes Malibu Moon did produce the Derby-winner Orb. Orb also had a winner of the Grade 2 – Black Eyed Susan in his female line (Mesabi Maiden). If we are making comparisons in pedigree, if we look at the exact same spot as you find Mesabi Maiden in Orb’s line, you will find the mare Win McCool. She won the Grade 3 – Floral Park Handicap at Belmont and ran 2^nd twice in Grade 2 company.

What I am getting at is there is a definite parallel between the pedigree of Orb and that of Magnum Moon. Another key that you will also find very apparent in both horses is the presence of Unbridled. While you won’t see Unbridled in the Racing Form you will see Unbridled’s Song as the Dam-sire.

FINAL ANALYSIS:

If you want my final analysis and the decisions I make after the post-position draw. Please donate $10 to by following this link. It is very much appreciated and I wish you the best of luck in your wagers. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

Risen Star Stakes winner BRAVAZO and Southwest Stakes winner MY BOY JACK clash in the Grade 1 – Louisiana Derby from The Fair Grounds.

The Grade 1 – Louisiana Derby tomorrow drew a field of 10 with a couple of newcomers that we haven’t seen at The Fair Grounds in 2018. The morning-line favorite is Grade 2 – Rebel Stakes winner MY BOY JACK, a 3-year-old bay colt by Creative Cause out of the Mineshaft mare Gold N Shaft. Risen Star winner BRAVAZO, a 3-year-old dark brown colt by Awesome Again out of the Cee’s Tizzy mare Tiz o’ Gold. The clash of these two horses which already have earned enough points to get a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate on May 5^th is going to be very interesting.

For a full breakdown of the race and an individual analysis of each horses past performances and pedigree, donate to keep this page going via the following link. The amount is up to you. I will keep my word and give you all the information I have whether it’s $5 or $25. If you are just here to check out the site, I appreciate you taking the time to read the article. Here is the link to donate: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448\\\

BRAVAZO (Gary Stevens/D. Wayne Lukas)

I talked briefly about BRAVAZO through a number of my articles and races he was involved. He has been entered in four meaningful races when it comes to qualifying for the Derby. He ran 2^nd in the Grade 1 – Breeders’ Futurity at 47-1 missing by four lengths behind FREE DROP BILLY. He then decided to run in the Street Sense Stakes instead of the Breeders Cup, he ran 3^rd behind winner GOTTA GO and 2^nd-place finisher LONE SAILOR whom he will face in the Louisiana Derby. His last start as a 2-year-old came in the Kentucky Jockey Club and he laid an egg finishing last beaten 12 lengths by Gotham winner, ENTICED.

He took six weeks off before debuting as a 3-year-old in an 8-furlong allowance race at Oaklawn in mid-January, he won by a neck defeating a decent group as the 5-2 second-choice in the betting.

If you didn’t get a chance to watch the replay of the Risen Star it is worth taking a look. BRAVAZO looked to float out a bit at the top of the lane losing a bit of ground in doing so. BRAVAZO also looked to be getting a bit leg weary late and drifted out in the final 100 yards while digging down deep to fend off pace-setting rival SNAPPER SINCLAIR by a nose.

The main questions to answer with BRAVAZO and the ones I will give you the answer to if you donate to my website are:

How important is it to D. Wayne Lukas that BRAVAZO perform well in his last prep before the Kentucky Derby?
Can BRAVAZO get the nine-furlongs needed to win after looking a little wobbly going 8½-furlongs in the Risen Star?
Will switching from Miguel Mena to Gary Stevens have any effect on the outcome?

FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

NOBLE INDY (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher)

He was a very tough call for me in the Risen Star. After what Todd did last year with horses with limited experience in these Derby preps, I couldn’t help but think that he could pull it off again. I am not very high on the sire Take Charge Indy. However, the dam Noble Maz has already produced a stakes winning sibling in addition to the now having a Graded-Stakes-Placed colt in NOBLE INDY. Whomever she foals in the future, it’s definitely worth adding to your Equibase Virtual Stable.

Noble Indy had pressed the pace and had the lead by the time the field hit the eighth pole in his first two start and he went on to control the rest of the race and win. In the Risen Star, he was bumped at the break as it shows in his short comment but it wasn’t anything that affected the outcome of his race. He ran right through the bump and continued on near the front of the pack, had he wanted the lead, Velazquez could have pushed it a bit more, but he decided to sit just off the top two and thought that those two longshots would collapse. That didn’t happen.

This is the most important information regarding NOBLE INDY in the Risen Star and I will let it go in this portion and not in the donation-required section. If you watch the replay very closely. You will see that NOBLE INDY is attending the pace on the rail through the first turn. For some reason, Velazquez backed off the gas and didn’t want to be on the lead, SNAPPER SINCLAIR moved forward and there was a lack of room as they began to exit the first turn, NOBLE INDY then got in a difficult position. He had the favorite, INSTILLED REGARD just to his outside and slightly ahead. Larger horses can intimidate smaller or average size horses when you get stuck on the inside with those big horses pushing you every step of the way. I think this is where NOBLE INDY lost the race. I don’t know if he got intimidated or not, but I have no idea why Velazquez backed off the lead. He essentially gave SNAPPER SINCLAIR the spot that he had. And, SNAPPER SINCLAIR was a head-bob away from winning it.

What are the major questions regarding NOBLE INDY going into tomorrow’s Louisiana Derby?

Where is NOBLE INDY going to try to win this race from? Are they going to try and wire it, like they should’ve in the Risen Star? Or, do they try and settle off the pace given the longer distance?
Todd Pletcher has another entry in the race with speed. Todd is smart, they both are not going to send. Who lays off the lead?
Is there more quality speed in this field than there was in the Risen Star? How does it affect the performance of NOBLE INDY?
FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

MARMELLO (Jack Gilligan/Mikhail Yanakov)

Still a maiden as of post-time tomorrow, is it possible that we could see a repeat of what Irap did in the Bluegrass Stakes last year? Probably not. At 50-1 on the morning-line, the odds-maker is probably being generous. He did show very good speed in his debut on the turf going 5½furlongs at The Fair Grounds. He followed it up with an 8½ furlong performance of similarity. He went for the lead and was wore down in the final sixteenth to finish fourth.

These are the kind of horses that can make a dent and hit the board in these big Derby preps. Nobody takes a real look at them and they nearly run away with the race early before being caught in the final yards. Every once and awhile we have scenarios like Irap in last year’s Bluegrass where there is a complete lack of speed and the horse can slow it down to win it from the front-end.

MARMELLO’s biggest problem is he is not lone speed. If they decide to change tactics it may be there best option. Otherwise, this race could get out of hand early and set up for the big closers to the outside.

MARMELLO is out of the sire Concord Point who might mean nothing to any of you but the grandsire is Tapit who I am sure you all know very well. On the bottom, he is out of Anychanceatadance who was by Scat Daddy. In simple terms, the pedigree is stout and I kind of like this one if he stays above 50-1.

GIVEMEAMINIT (Javier Castellano/D. Stewart)

This Louisiana-bred has shown some ability in big races. He ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 3^rd in the Hopeful at Saratoga. He ran his entire 2-year-old season in major Grade 1 stakes races as a maiden. He finally decided to take on maidens at The Fair Grounds at the end of January and he was a ridden out winner at odds of 1-9. He then came back in the Risen Star where honestly I didn’t think he had the best of chances to pull the upset.

Now that he has had another four weeks off and with the speed in the race, the improvement in jockey from Bridgmohan to Castellano could mean some improvement. Enough to win, ehhh… maybe.

Note: *This colt’s BEST BRISNET DIRT SPEED is close to the average winning speed needed to win this race.*

RETIREMENT FUND (S. Brdgmohan/S.Asmussen)

We talked a bit about RETIREMENT FUND never sniffing anything but the lead in his first two starts prior to the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn four weeks ago. Things didn’t go that way perfect for the 3-year-old colt by Eskendereya out of the Street Cry (IRE) mare Northern Station. He is definitely well bred to succeed as the races get longer.

The track condition the day of the Southwest was unique and Kent Desormeaux called it “like peanut-butter”. The chart caller had RETIREMENT FUND stalking the pace in the three-path before making a four-wide bid and faltering.

In all honestly, he broke well, the jockey didn’t have to do very much with him, he settled nicely about four lengths off the lead, saved ground on the inside, he shifted out heading into the far turn, and began to gain ground three-to-four-wide. His speed just simply was not fast enough. He got outrun. It didn’t have anything to do with switching leads late or finding trouble. He simply just got outrun. COMBATANT came up on his outside and he failed to sustain his bid.

HYNDFORD (Joe Bravo/Todd Pletcher)

Well here we have the biggest wildcard in the race. One of the few 3-year-old’s I have not seen yet this year. This colt by Street Cry(IRE)out of the Candy Ride mare Niji’s Grand Girl is well bred for the distance and should succeed in the classic distances. He pressed the pace in his debut at Gulfstream on the turf before weakening in the lane but showed fight. In his maiden breaking victory, he again pressed the pace three-wide and attacked off the turn, this time on dirt, at odds of 4-5. He had a bit of trouble bumping with a foe in deep stretch.

The biggest note and it will be the reason this one will probably will be less than 7-2 tomorrow. He set the pace in his most recent allowance race but couldn’t hang on. He was caught in the final sixteenth by Rebel Stakes winner MAGNUM MOON.

Whether or not you like MAGNUM MOON, his pedigree and/or conformation, he won that race going away. HYNDFORD’s biggest problem is his running style. In every race he has ran, he has been close to the lead or on it, in my opinion, he is going to have to try and settle back a little bit farther early on in the Louisiana Derby to have any chance of getting this done.

If Bravo decides to send, we just have another reason to favor the closers in the race. This is a very similar type of entry to what Pletcher did last year, entering these horses with little experience, and trying to qualify for the Derby in their 3^rd or 4^th start. It worked out last year for him, but I have yet to see an Always Dreaming type favorite.

SNAPPER SINCLAIR (Jose L Ortiz/ Asmussen)

The 3yo bay colt nearly pulled one of the biggest upsets in modern Derby prep history in the Risen Star. Had he had just a little more speed late, he would have been on the other side of the nose in the photo. Tough breaks happen and Steve Asmussen has had his share along the way.

This colt had two very impressive victories leading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and I am not sure what exactly happen that day in California, but SNAPPER SINCLAIR laid an egg. He finished 12^th of 14 entries and he was caught wide while steadying on the turn. Either way, he went from 5^th at the first call to 11^th at the second call. Personally, I am going to just draw a line through that race. It was on the turf for one and it’s going to tell me very little about how he is going to perform tomorrow.

He showed early speed in the Lecomte in January. His first start in seven weeks. He then came back a little quicker in the Risen Star and grabbed the early lead but it wasn’t uncontested. He was head-to-head with BRAVAZO pretty much the entire way. He finished with a very game effort and he earned 20 points towards the Kentucky Derby qualification standings as a result. He currently holds 22 points and might need roughly 10 more to qualify.

LONE SAILOR (James Graham/Thomas Amoss)

We haven’t seen LONE SAILOR since the Lecomte in mid-January. Following his poor effort in his 3yo debut, he opted for an allowance race in February and ran 2^nd to a fellow foe which he will also face today in DARK TEMPLAR.

Amoss switched tactics in his most recent effort and tried to let LONE SAILOR settle off the pace and make a run at the leaders. Considering how much speed there is in this race, it could be very beneficial to this type of horse. He has an extremely hot trainer (30% in 114 starts). He got jockey Graham to stick with him for this mount. That can’t hurt and it actually tells me that he might think that he has something with this horse.

His speed figures on paper are simply not very fast in comparison with othersin the field. His fastest start came in his lone start in the slop as a 2yo at Saratoga in which he won by 11 lengths.

MY BOY JACK (Kent Desormeaux/K Desormeaux)

Team Desormeaux made me look like an expert at this game when they scored in the Southwest on Presidents Day. A lot of things went there way that day, track conditions, rail bias, and the race set-up beautifully for them turning for home.

Whether it was the peanut-buttery track or just all out talent, this 3yo colt by Creative Cause ran away with the Southwest in style. He is going to need to produce a similar run here to earn enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. For winning the Southwest, he earned 10 points. He also earned two points for his 3^rd place finish in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita.

Where do those efforts put him in this field?

At this point, I am a bit undecided when it comes to MY BOY JACK. I loved him in the Southwest Stakes. As far as pace scenario goes, I love him again, but what kind odds can I get on him. There are a number of factors that go into how I would bet this race.

DARK TEMPLAR (Florent Geroux/Brendan Walsh)

First time we have seen this 3yo colt by Tapit out of the Storm Cat mare Hurricane Flag. Debuted with a front-running victory at Churchill in November. Then he was completely out run by PRINCIPE GUILHERME who we saw in the Lecomte. He was then bumped at the break and had major trouble late in his 3^rd start in which today’s foe RETIREMENT FUND got the win.

In his latest start, he was able to better LONE SAILOR who we have already talked about and seen during this Road to the Derby.

Simply, it just comes down to how good is he? He hasn’t really proved a whole lot against the better of the 3yo crop. Or at least what we think is the better of the 3yo crop. Personally, I think his versatility is an asset, but he is going to really have to step up his game to make an impact on the outcome.

He was a $475k purchase at the Keeneland September Sales and I have a feeling that this one has a big future in front of him somewhere down the line.

I’ll try to get something on paper for the Sunland Derby. I likely will just give you a quick preview of my selections as I currently have not looked at the entries.

Next week, we will cover the UAE Derby and the Florida Derby. Both are 100-40-20-10 races.

It is going to be interesting where the point cutoff this year for qualification ends up. If I had to predict it right now, I would guess somewhere between 35-40. Your thoughts would be appreciate in the comments?

Blended Citizen wins Grade 3 – Jeff Ruby Steaks with prolonged drive to grab the lead in the stretch.

The Grade 3 – Jeff Ruby Steaks from Turfway Park had 34 points available for Kentucky Derby contenders. The nine furlong event was on the Turfway Park synthetic surface and drew a full field of 12. The 5-1 morning-line favorite HAZIT trained by Todd Pletcher was trying the poly track for the first time. It wasn’t meant to be this Saturday for Todd Pletcher at Turfway. Instead the Kentucky-bred shipping in from Northern California after finishing 3^rd in the El Camino Real Derby, BLENDED CITIZEN showed his will and guts to do one of the most difficult things in racing, rally on the inside in deep stretch. His determination and a great job finishing the race by jockey Kyle Frey, got BLENDED CITIZEN to the winners’circle at odds of 3-1.

I have a feeling that the numbers from this race are not going to come back very fast. As the final time was average. A couple things to note, I think the slow fourth quarter had to do with MUGARITZ opening up a wide margin and tiring rapidly. I came to this conclusion because Blended Citizen ran the final furlong in :12.06. He could be one of those horses that just consistently pounds along at one speed. Something that can be very beneficial at long distances. If he can run at that pace for 10 furlongs, he would have a definite shot in the Kentucky Derby. I still think there are questions yet to be answered but it was a very interesting outcome considering those factors.

Another note, favorite HAZIT stumbled badly at the start spotting the field about three lengths and was not a factor at all. BLENDED CITIZEN and runner-up PONY UP were co-second choices in the race at odds of 6-1. Both raced in a prolonged drive.

At this point, I do think that we need to consider BLENDED CITIZEN a contender in his next Derby prep and if he proves he has the good on dirt. I would put him in my official contender list.

The Grade 2 – Rebel Stakes from Oaklawn Park draws a strong 11 entrants this Saturday. Bob Baffert looks for redemption with SOLOMINI after his tough break at Santa Anita last weekend.

The Grade 2 – Rebel Stakes from Oaklawn Park has produced Kentucky Derby winners American Pharoah and Smarty Jones, but has also been a major launching pad for countless starters in recent years. This year we find ourselves with 11 entrants who all have something to prove this weekend in Hot Springs, AR. The morning-line favorite is likely to be another Bob Baffert trainee, the 3-year-old colt SOLOMINI. In the Grade 3 – Southwest Stakes, Baffert trainee MOURINHO went down in flames and SOLOMINI will be looking to right the wrongs and turn Bob’s luck around considering the tough break he caught in last weekend’s Grade 2 – San Felipe Stakes.

Here is a breakdown and analysis of the field for the Rebel Stakes…

TITLE READY (Jose Ortiz / Steve Asmussen)

The 3-year-old dark bay colt by More Than Ready out of the Monarchos mare Title Seeker. He definitely is well bred to succeed the farther the distances get in the classic races. TITLE READY broke his maiden as a 2-year-old in his third start last October. It looks like Asmussen brought this one along slowly and he has been building on each race and improving in his next. He followed up his maiden win with a 3^rd=place finish in his first try versus winners. They then decided to shut him down before gearing him back up for his 3-year-old campaign.

In his 3yo debut he pressed the pace and shrugged off the pacesetter and drew away to a clear victory at Oaklawn Park on February 1^st. There is a lot to improve on but he put up a 94 Brisnet Speed Figure (BSF) and I would expect continued improvement over the next three races. He is going to need a career best in the Rebel to hit the board and be part of the outcome. There is no reason to believe that he can’t run a career best, but it all depends on how big of a number that needs to be.

FINAL WORD: For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

CURLIN’S HONOR (Florent Geroux/Mark Casse)

There is no doubt that Curlin was a great horse, a fantastic horse as a matter of fact. His progeny tend to improve drastically at age 3 and we learn quickly whether or not they are going to make it in the racing world. This 3-year-old colt is by Curlin and out of the Stormin Fever mare Franscat. Franscat started 20 times, won twice, and earned $85k. Her dam Hopespringsagain started seven times, failed to win, and hit the board once. And there is not much else to speak of as far as winning goes in the female line.

Now as far as Curlin’s Honor goes there is a lot to be promising about. He has started twice in his career and won both of them. His debut was at Keeneland as a 2-year-old in October going 6 furlongs. He broke mid-pack, bumped a rival just past the half-mile pole and battled in a prolonged drive to win a neck on the wire at 4-5. He came back three weeks ago in an optional allowance against winners, broke in similar fashion and made a nice prolonged drive to the wire to get the win by a neck.

It will be his first try in graded stakes in the Rebel, but he has shown the ability to make a run at the leader at the right time of the race. He faced fast fractions in the slop at The Fair Grounds on February 25^th but he closed to hit the wire at the right time. He is likely not going to get those same fractions again and this is going to be his first time going two turns which gives him a significant advantage given his pedigree.

SOLOMINI (Flavien Prat / Bob Baffert)

This 3-year-old colt also by Curlin out of the Storm Car mare Surf Song was a $270k 2016 Keeneland September Sale purchase it and has earned every dollar back for her owners and then some. With a superior win in her debut at even money. He followed it up with a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 – Front Runner Stakes.

He propelled that into curiously enough a front-running second-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile earning him 8 points towards the Kentucky Derby qualification standings.

Unlike most 2-year-olds who wrapped up their season after the Breeders’ Cup, SOLOMINI continued his attempt to earn Derby qualification points and he won the Grade 1 – Los Alamitos Futurity. It ended his 2017 season with 18 total points towards the Derby meaning one solid performance in 2018 would lock up a spot in the Derby. He is going to go off as the favorite more than likely. His morning-line is 3-2.

MAGNUM MOON (Luis Saez / Todd Pletcher)

The $380k purchase by Malibu Moon out of the Unbridled’s Song mare Dazzling Song is 2 for 2 in his career. He has shown the ability to track the pace and attack past the quarter pole in both starts at Gulfstream and Tampa. In his last start he went off at 1-9 and was urged slightly at the top of the lane and was ridden out in hand late.

This will be his first attempt at graded stakes company and he is very well bred to succeed at the classic distances.

HIGHER POWER (R.Eramia / Don Von Hemel)

The great Midwest trainer Donnie Von Hemel trains the 3-year-old by Medaglia d’Oro out of the Seattle Slew mare Alternate. His pedigree is as good as it gets for long distance races which begin with the three Triple Crown races for 3-year-old’s. This bay colt ran his debut at Remington Park, he tracked from the rear of the field and closed willingly five-wide to get up for third.

In his second start Von Hemel stretched him out to eight furlongs (1-mile) and HIGHER POWER showed a little more speed. He tracked the pace three-wide in third and made a prolonged drive to wear down his foe by a head. His third start in an allowance race going a mile, he tracked from fifth and made a four-wide run to get up in the final sixteenth to win by ¾ of a length. In all three of his starts, foes that finished in the top three came back to win their next start. In his debut, the top three finishers all came back to win next out. 1^st-place finisher, REDATORY came back to win the Clevor Trevor Stakes. 2^nd-place finisher ROYAL REALITY broke his maiden as did HIGHER POWER. In HIGHER POWER’s maiden victory, 3^rd-place finisher SPEEDY FELLAR came back to win next out at Remington Park.

2^nd-place finisher in his latest allowance victory, NEW YORK CENTRAL, a Steve Asmussen trainee by Tapit came back to win next out. With the amount of winners surrounding HIGHER POWER I think he is a serious threat to hit the board at long odds. We’ll have to see how things shake out and how he looks on the track. If you want my opinion where he fits in as far as betting goes well click the link below.

PRYOR (David Cabrera / Ron Moquett)

This 3-year-old by Paynter out of the Distorted Humor mare Awesome Humor took four starts to break his maiden and he just did that on February 18^th. He had a couple starts as a 2-year-old at Churchill that were unsuccessful. He went gate to wire in his most recent start and did it very convincingly. He was put in a mild drive midstretch and opened up to win by nearly six lengths at 7-1 in the mud.

He has Awesome Again blood on the top and Distorted Humor blood on the bottom and that’s why he was purchased for $200k at the Ocala Breeders’ Sale. It will be interesting to see how he does as the races get longer. If the track is wet he could be very dangerous. Note that the times were very slow in his most recent win, it could have been track conditions or it could have been class.

SPORTING CHANCE (J.Velazquez/D.Wayne Lukas)

We had a long analysis of SPORTING CHANCE last time in the Grade 3 – Southwest Stakes. It is my belief that he was in that race to build stamina and was not cranked up for the win. It definitely could be different this time around. These connections Velazquez/Lukas will be teaming up for the first time, but I expect a top effort.

Jockey Luis Saez opted to stay with Todd Pletcher’s MAGNUM MOON after two consecutive victories. He could be making a major mistake. It doesn’t happen often where Johnny V. is running against a Pletcher runner, but he is on a quality horse this time and will have a chance to win this.

HIGH NORTH (Gary Stevens / Brad Cox)

Broke maiden as a 2-year-old at Keeneland going 8–½ furlongs by a nose. The 3-year-old by Midnight Lute out of the Awesome Again mare Spacy Tracy has top connections with Stevens and Cox. They are winning at a clip of almost 30% over the last 60 days and are hitting the board at a rate of 67%.

He is going to settle far back in the field and try to make a run at the pace on the far turn. There is not a lot of closing speed in this race so it is possible that with the distances continuing to get longer this colt could excel. He ran kind of flat last race, but it was his first off of a 3-month layoff. He should definitely have room to improve.

ZING ZANG (Corey Lanerie / S. Asmussen)

Started his career running about once a month beginning in October. The 3-year-old grey colt by Tapit out of the Mr. Greeley mare Jet Away broke his maiden in his 3^rd start at odds of 5-1. He came back in the Grade 3 – Lecomte Stakes and closed ground willingly late to get up four fourth earning one point for Derby qualifying purposes. He settled back on the muddy track at Oaklawn in the Grade 3 – Southwest Stakes but failed to make up ground in the lane. It was a difficult track to close on unless you road the rail as MY BOY JACK did.

He is well bred but he is going to need a significant pace to make a winning run in the stretch. As the distances get further he will also get better.

COMBATANT (R. Santana Jr. / S. Asmussen)

The 3-year-old bay colt by Scat Daddy out of the Boundary mare Border Dispute has had a very successful but frustrating career thus far. He tracked the pace in the Springboard Mile, Smarty Jones, and Southwest but could only get up to be the runner up in all three.

His pedigree says he should be successful the further the races get, but he could have issues once we get to the Belmont. The average winning distance of his sire and dam comes out to about 7.15. We will find out around Arkansas Derby time if he is going to have trouble beyond 8–½ furlongs.

BODE’S MAKER (J.Loveberry/Allen Milligan)

The 3-year-old colt by Bodemeister out of the Vindication mare Romantic Folic has had more experience on the track than everybody in this race, but it’s not necessarily a good thing. He broke his maiden in his 3^rd start after breaking dead last and making prolonged rally going a mile. The half was in :46.4 which definitely helped and he won by 2-1/2 lengths.

His next three starts were in the Clevor Trevor, Springboard Mile, and Smarty Jones. He attempted to close in all three starts but got up for 2^nd in the Clevor Trevor, the other two attempts were unsuccessful. His latest start was an improvement in allowance company, but he is very inconsistent.

What Kentucky Derby contenders should you be considering right now?

So we have nearly reached Saint Patrick’s Day and the Derby picture is getting clearer ever so slightly. This past weekend we saw a great showdown in California whereas in Florida we saw a near 20-1 long shot punch his ticket to the starting gate at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 5^th. Handicappers around the country are going to start ranking these horses and picking their winner, but to be honest we are not nearly close to getting to that point on this blog. I couldn’t tell you whether or not I am clear on one horse, but I will say this, last Saturday’s San Felipe did give me some clarity on the Southern California circuit and how the top trainers feel about their entrants. We will see how things work out in the Santa Anita Derby, but I have an idea who I think is the best candidate to come out of that state.

Here is a list of twelve contenders I feel we deserve to be considering at this point.

BOLT D’ORO

JUSTIFY

MCKINZIE

ENTICED

FREE DROP BILLY

FIRENZE FIRE

INSTILLED REGARD

AVERY ISLAND

SOLOMINI

SPORTING CHANCE

GOOD MAGIC

COMBATANT

Bolt D’Oro and McKinzie getting ready for a pre-Derby showdown in the Grade 2 – San Felipe Stakes from Santa Anita this Saturday

When you scan the internet landscape for handicappers “Top 10 Derby Contenders”, right now we will see Good Magic falling from a ‘Top 3’ position in almost everybody’s list. That leaves Bolt D’Oro as a clear candidate as the current Derby-favorite as long as he takes care of business in Saturday’s Grade 2 – San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.

One of the top jockeys in the history of the Kentucky Derby is Victor Espinoza. Earlier today he guided Bolt D’Oro to a blazing work of :46.40. Victor Espinoza said in an interview with the Paulick Report that BOLT D’ORO had improved between his works on Valentine’s Day (Feb.14) and today (Mar.5). In my opinion, it was one of the best works I have ever seen from that horse. I am not sure if it was pent up energy or did he use too much. I am a bit surprised that Mick Ruis let him go as quick as he did. We will see in the final quarter mile on Saturday if he has the leg strength he needs to kick home when he switches leads.

McKinzie is trained by Bob Baffert. He worked seven furlongs on March 4th in 1:23.80 and looked like he is near the top of his game. Mick Ruis has said that this race is not the race they care about. That’s a very dangerous road to travel. When you are not “trying” to win, it can lead to future problems. If it were me, I wouldn’t hold anything back. If you have the best horse and are pointing toward the Santa Anita Derby as the day you want to be at 100%, that’s fine and dandy but there are plenty of things that go wrong in horse races. BOLT D’ORO needs to earn his points, get past these next two races, and build towards the first Saturday in May. I get Ruis’ attitude but the race that matters most is the one where you earn roses. I think the quote that applies is “Com’n Man!”

I will have a full breakdown and analysis of the race once the post-position draw is finished on Wednesday morning/afternoon.

May the head-bobs ever be in your favor.

Grade 2 – Xpressbet Fountain of Youth wired by Promises Fulfilled. ‘Trip-breakdown’ and full analysis

As I go through and handicap each horse race, I typically will go through multiple scenarios in my mind before I come to a conclusion on where and how I should wager my money. Dale Romans trains the 3-year-old colt PROMISES FULFILLED. At the beginning of the day, I think he liked the chances of his other horse in the race, STORM RUNNER. It wasn’t because the lack of talent regarding PROMISES FULFILLED, it had to do with that the majority of the scenarios had the speed fading in the Grade 2 – Fountain of Youth Stakes sponsored by Xpressbet.

PROMISES FULFILLED is by Shackleford and out of the Marquetry mare Marquee Delivery. As most handicappers should know by now, the Fountain of Youth is run at 8-1/2 furlongs and finishes at Gulfstream Park’s 1/16th-pole. It causes a great detriment to the horses that draw to the outside of the starting gate.

Here is a full trip breakdown for the field from start to finish…

THE BREAK

The horses that took the worst of it were #3 – PEPPERED and #8 – MARCONI. After breaking a bit lacsidasicle, MARCONI was bumping with MACHISMO and was then pinched back as GOTTA and MACHISMO began to come together. On the inside, PEPPERED stumbled but gathered himself quickly and was near the back into the first turn.

FIRST TURN

As the horses entered the first-turn, it looked like this: STRIKE POWER broke well and went to the lead on the inside, PROMISES FULFILLED broke well, pushed and passed STRIKE POWER to gain the lead after a furlong, GOOD MAGIC chased just off the rear right flank of STRIKE POWER, GOTTA GO followed GOOD MAGIC in the same manner, and MACHISMO followed GOTTA GO. HE TAKES CHARGE saved ground on the rail through the opening turn. PEPPERED was near the rear of the field in about the two-path. He was followed by MARCONI who traveled three-wide and trailed the field.

So what does a knowledgeable bettor and person get from those situations?

First and foremost, the horses that wanted the lead got it. The horses that wanted to settle and save ground did. The only thing that I would take note of was MARCONI was caught a bit wide and GOOD MAGIC was caught between horses briefly.

BACKSTRETCH

PROMISES FULFILLED continue to lead. STRIKE POWER continued to chase the pace about two-wide on the backstretch. STORM RUNNER tracked the pace on the rail about a neck behind the leader and was forced to steady multiple times, most importantly losing momentum as he looked to be beginning his run into the far turn. GOOD MAGIC was caught three-wide in the second flight, GOTTA GO was just to his inside, and the trailing trio had HE TAKES CHARGE on the rail, PEPPERED between foes, and MARCONI three-wide at the rear.

*The most important part of the call along the backstretch is we need to note where some of these horses are relative to how they want to manage the far turn. GOOD MAGIC needed to find space or make an early move, he did neither. PROMISES FULFILLED needed to make sure that he continued with a clear lead with enough horse to manage the stretch drive and he did that. Everyone else needed to make something happen and the only horse that has marginal room to hit the excuse button was STORM RUNNER.

FAR TURN

You can see on the head-on view that PROMISES FULFILLED was not even being asked while STRIKE POWER and GOOD MAGIC were being scrubbed on to give them everything they possibly could.

STORM RUNNER faltered and faded past the 1/4-pole.

MACHISMO, GOTTA GO, and MARCONI were all 3wide to 4wide exiting the far turn and were marking up marginal ground passing tiring rivals in the lane.

HE TAKES CHARGE and PEPPERED remained near the rear of the field out of the far turn and simply failed to fire.

STRETCH-RUN

Unlike many races, positioning was unchanged through the stretch. Giving PROMISES FULFILLED a clear victory going gate to wire. STRIKE POWER opened my eyes with his effort chasing the pace throughout. I didn’t see him as a contender with his pedigree lending itself to sprinting. GOOD MAGIC raced for the first time as a 3yo and ran poorly to finish 3rd.

TRIP SUMMARIES:

#1 – HE TAKES CHARGE: Dull effort, no excuses

#2 – FREE DROP BILLY: Scratched

#3 – PEPPERED: Bobbled start, no response

#4 – STRIKE POWER: broke well, chased pace, 2nd best

#5 – STORM RUNNER: forwardly placed inside, steadied backstretch, weakened

#6 – GOOD MAGIC: good early speed, shifted 3wide, even effort

#7 – GOTTA GO: tracked inside in 2nd flight, angled 3wide, lacked late bid

#8 – MARCONI: Pinched back start, 3wide throughout, no bid

#9 – MACHISMO: chased 3wide throughout, evenly

*So I supposed the major question is “Did we see a Kentucky Derby contender here?”

We now have three qualified horses more than likely. BRAVAZO who won the Risen Star from the Fair Grounds a couple weeks ago has 54 points and is for all general purposes a starter for the Kentucky Derby. After today’s win, PROMISES FULFILLED will get Louisville-regular Dale Romans a slot with 52 points. GOOD MAGIC now sits at last year’s cutoff of 34 points and should be in or very close to it.

*The most important thing we learned in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth was that GOOD MAGIC was not fully cranked up for the race. It’s a matter of building toward top form during the first week of May. Chad Brown showed that even began at less than 100%, GOOD MAGIC is still good enough to be graded stakes placed. It was kind of disappointing all-in-all. We saw early speed and that is apparently what Good Magic wanted yet when it came down to crunch time, he didn’t even have enough energy/speed to get him within a length of the lead. My honest opinion right now is that other than GOOD MAGIC, none of these horses made a good enough impression to make Dr. Dan’s Top 10 Contender List.

Good Magic almost surely will fall based on that effort. I think it was a pretty soft field to come back against. Promises Fulfilled went gate to wire and the Beyer will probably be no higher than a 90-93 at the most.

Current Derby Rankings (Qualified candidates only)

#3 – PROMISES FULFILLED – He was the product of a fast track/lone speed

#2 – BRAVAZO – I was very underwhelmed by the Risen Star

#1 – GOOD MAGIC – The best of what we got at this point.

Saturday’s Grade 2 – Fountain of Youth Stakes presented by Xpressbet draws field of 10, highlighted by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Champion – Good Magic

It’s go time in the 3-year-old thoroughbred season. If you want to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, time’s disappearing very quickly. We know that the Pletcher’s, Baffert’s, and Brown’s will find their way into the gate, but it’s not a matter of want-to for the rest of the training world. Your horse still needs to earn points. Churchill Downs changed their format for selecting the 20 entrants multiple times over the past decade. Now Japanese and European trainers even have the option to race in a ‘points-format’ which would them give them the option to ship to Louisville. Shipping overseas has never worked for horses that have qualified via the UAE Derby in Dubai. Don’t get me wrong horses have qualified, they just have never had the ability to threaten for the win.

Saturday’s Grade 2 – Fountain of Youth Stakes presented by Xpressbet will be run at Gulfstream Park in Florida. Last year’s edition brought together a number of serious Derby contenders including Classic Empire and Irish War Cry. This Saturday, we will get to see our first look at many handicappers top Derby contender, the Chad Brown trained, GOOD MAGIC. The $1M purchase by Curlin out of the Hard Spun mare Glinda the Good has ran well in every start. His pedigree gives every reason to show that the success should continue at the classic distances.

Here is a brief look at the Fountain of Youth field and some information on each horse. If you would like my bets, selection, and analysis please fill out the form on this site or click the following link: dadams0211@gmail.com

#1 – HE TAKES CHARGE (Tyler Gafflione/Mark Casse)

Mark Casse has started this grey colt by Tapit out of the Storm Cat mare Elarose at Gulfstream three times this Winter. He is an off the pace type runner that should save ground into the first turn. He has shown every reason to improve off his most recent effort, a maiden special weight victory going 8-1/2 furlongs.

He is untested against winners but the$625k purchase should do just fine the further races are scheduled. We’ll see if he lives up to his name and takes charge in the lane to score the upset.

FINAL WORD: Send $5 to the Pay Pal account DAdams0211@gmail.com and also send an e-mail that you indeed sent the money so I can verify it.

#2 – FREE DROP BILLY (Robby Albarado/Dale Romans)

We are very familiar with this 3yo chestnut colt by Union Rags out of the Giant’s Causeway mare Trensa. After a very dull effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, FREE DROP BILLY came back in his 3yo debut with a good second place effort to AUDIBLE in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. He was even with AUDIBLE at the top of the lane, but didn’t show good fitness and failed to match strides through the lane. He was clearly second best.

He also drew a preferable post position on the inside. It should benefit his running style. I see him just off the pace on the inside.

FINAL WORD: FINAL WORD: Send $5 to the Pay Pal account DAdams0211@gmail.com and also send an e-mail that you indeed sent the money so I can verify it.

#3 – PEPPERED (Nik Juarez/Reade Baker)

The Kentucky-bred 3yo bay colt by Tapizar out of the Cherokee Run mare Elaborate ran all of his three 2yo races at Woodbine in Canada. He broke slowly and corrected himself to get 3^rd in his debut. Followed that with another very green performance in his 2^nd start but managed to win by more than seven lengths. He then followed it up with a 2^nd place finish in the Gr.2 – Grey Stakes going 8-1/2 furlongs at Woodbine. He stepped it up after that shipping down to Churchill for the Gr.2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and faltered badly never getting involved.

If you draw a line through the last start, he deserves an awful long look particularly when it comes to your exotic tickets.

FINAL WORD: FINAL WORD: Send $5 to the Pay Pal account DAdams0211@gmail.com and also send an e-mail that you indeed sent the money so I can verify it.

#4 – STRIKE POWER (Luis Saez/Mark Hennig)

He definitely started his career with a bang. An eight-length win at 12-1 odds in what has turned out to be a key maiden special weight race during the early part of the meet at Gulfstream was no joke. The 3yo chestnut colt by Speightstown out of the Medaglia D’Oro mare Gold D’Oro has won both of his career starts. Granted, they are both going one turn and he is out of the great sprint-developing sire Speightstown so it’s hard to think he is going to develop going any farther than a mile.

However, he has never sniffed 2^nd-place in a race and he has shown a keen ability to start very well. I would expect him to do the same. That said, can he get the distance and how classy was his win in the Gr.3 Swale Stakes on February 3^rd.

FINAL WORD: FINAL WORD: Send $5 to the Pay Pal account DAdams0211@gmail.com and also send an e-mail that you indeed sent the money so I can verify it.

#5 – STORM RUNNER (Joel Rosario/Dale Romans)

Don’t confuse this one with Horse of the Year, Gun Runner. He ran four times as a 2yo. His debut on fast dirt at Ellis Park in which he ran a solid 2^nd coming from off the pace. He then tried the grass twice and hit the board but did not win. He then caught an off track at Churchill and scored easily. He was laid off before he came back to debut as a 3yo at Gulfstream on the grass in January. He ran like an unfit horse and faded. He followed that up in a non-winners of one allowance race and scored by a neck over a decent ground on fast dirt.

It was a very strong last race for this Team Valor owned 3yo chestnut colt by Get Stormy out of the Horse Chestnut (SAF) mare Destiny’s Reward. If he builds off of his 102 Brisnet Speed Figure he would have every reason to factor into this outcome on Saturday. The major question has to be whether or not this group is planning a turf career for this horse.

FINAL WORD: Send $5 to the Pay Pal account DAdams0211@gmail.com and also send an e-mail that you indeed sent the money so I can verify it.

#6 – GOOD MAGIC (Jose L. Ortiz/Chad C. Brown)

He was so good in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Champagne last year, I expect so much out of him this year. His expectations may not be as high as say Secretariat but they are definitely up there. He has been working over at Palm Meadows in the Miami-area and it’s hard to gauge his workouts. They have not been super quick but that doesn’t tend to mean a lot with Chad Brown’s runners.

If last year gives us any kind of a clue. Brown and GOOD MAGIC will be very ready on Saturday. Will the 3yo by Curlin be at 100%? Probably not but if he has improved at all he should be good enough to be in the winners’ circle?

FINAL WORD: Send $5 to the Pay Pal account DAdams0211@gmail.com and also send an e-mail that you indeed sent the money so I can verify it.

#7 – GOTTA GO (Chris Landeros/Ian Wilkes)

The Midwest connections scored a 2^nd-place finish with this 3yo by Shanghai Bobby out of the Unbridled’s Song mare Disturbingly Hot in the Gr.3 Swale earlier this month. They will need continued improvement this colt’s 2^nd start as a 3yo. If he does get the points to earn a spot in the Derby, he has two victories over the Churchill surface which can be very beneficial.

FINAL WORD: Send $5 to the Pay Pal account DAdams0211@gmail.com and also send an e-mail that you indeed sent the money so I can verify it.

#8 – MARCONI (JJ Castellano/Todd Pletcher)

Those of us who have worked in the radio industry are very familiar with the name MARCONI. Will the 3yo grey/roan colt by Tapit out of the Ponche mare Ponche de Leona make people in the horse racing world remember the name MARCONI. Todd Pletcher hopes so. After running a solid 3^rd in the Gr.3 – Withers Stakes, he is going to need to make a solid jump forward from an outside post position to have a shot Saturday.

I see him getting caught out wide on the first turn and that’s a definite no-no at Gulfstream. I reanalyze the pace scenario about five times before I make my final decision, but as of now it’s going to be tough. The $2M purchase was as spendy as horses get. Does that automatically earn you a spot in the Derby? I guess we’ll see.

FINAL WORD: Send $5 to the Pay Pal account DAdams0211@gmail.com and also send an e-mail that you indeed sent the money so I can verify it.

#9 – MACHISMO (Albin Jiminez/Anthony Quartarolo)

The local connections got a huge win in his last start wiring the field by 11 lengths. The easy question to ask is who did he face in that start. At this point, we are still answering that question. The 3yo bay colt by More Than Ready out of the Smart Strike mare Winsome Ways can show speed. He went 6f in 1:09.3 which is no joke if they were classy horses. Like I said, are they classy?

My gut feeling is no but I am not going to dismiss this horse. He is very well bred and I think he could play a role in the outcome. Will it be first? Maybe.

FINAL WORD: Send $5 to the Pay Pal account DAdams0211@gmail.com and also send an e-mail that you indeed sent the money so I can verify it.

#10 – PROMISES FULFILLED (Irad Ortiz Jr/Dale Romans)

Well we had to assume with one Ortiz brother we get the other one in these races. They are never on lousy animals in any start. The straight out speedster by Shackleford faded for the first time in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes back in November. Romans has had three months to teach this horse how to learn from that race.

If anybody has the ability to get the most out of that race it’s Romans. Irad has also done a good job with straight speed types but he is not the only straight speed type in here. One of them is going to be on the lead and only one. Who will it be?

FINAL WORD: Send $5 to the Pay Pal account DAdams0211@gmail.com and also send an e-mail that you indeed sent the money so I can verify it.

Here are the horses I am using in my Pick 4 – If you want the remainder of my plays from the 14 race card at Gulfstream it’s $5 and you can send it via PayPal.

Full Analysis for all stakes $10.

Risen Star Recap: Bravazo noses out Snapper Sinclair in a Bayou-thriller.

Jockey Gary Stevens got back into the game for one reason, to win the Kentucky Derby. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has not had much luck when in the big race recently. His last win came in 1999 when Charasmatic shocked the world. His 3-year-old colt, BRAVAZO didn’t win the Derby but he did likely qualify for it by earning 50 points in the qualification standings moving into first position overall.

BRAVAZO broke well and moved forward three wide into the first turn, continued in that path pressing the pace set by SNAPPER SINCLAIR. Those two matched strides nearing the 3/16-pole and battled to the wire. BRAVAZO looked to lead by a neck but drifted out late losing some ground to win by nose at odds of 21-1.

SNAPPER SINCLAIR set rather slow fractions throughout. The second quarter which he ran in :23.81 probably was what cost him in the final furlong. The 3-year-old colt by City Zip showed exactly what is expected of a City Zip colt, he was quick, battled hard, and nearly pulled it off at odds of 41-1.

Coming into the race, I think I handicapped it correctly, I predicted that SNAPPER SINCLAIR would be on the lead, I just thought somebody would press harder and the half would go in something like :47 flat and the 3/4-time would be 1:11-something. It just didn’t breakdown that way.

My comment on BRAVAZO was not negative one bit, I said was going to watch this time but he had the ability to be part of the outcome. I didn’t see him winning, but he did exactly that. The fact that SNAPPER SINCLAIR held on as the pacesetter is where my bets went wrong. Had the race come in 7-5 or even 4-5, I think I would have made money. I still think EBBEN is going to be a winner. He was caught very wide throughout and was in striking position leaving the far turn. I knew at that point he was empty. And with the fractions being slow with the exception of the second quarter, I knew both INSTILLED REGARD and NOBLE INDY were going to have trouble. INSTILLED REGARD gained ground on the leader past the quarter pole, but once they switched leads at the top of the lane, BRAVAZO and SNAPPER SINCLAIR dug in and INSTILLED REGARD weakened to finish fourth just behind NOBLE INDY.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK:

INSTILLED REGARD – Thought to be the best horse of the bunch and a horse that was included in many handicappers Derby Top 10, he really was disappointing. Who cares what the pace scenario was at this point, if he was the horse everyone thought he was, he would have cruised by those horses at the top of the lane and pulled the upset.

SNAPPER SINCLAIR – He is an interesting prospect but I don’t think his pedigree gives him much of a shot past 8-1/2 furlongs. I could be wrong but he looked to be tiring a bit and the fractions were in his favor. I give him credit though, he dug in deep and near got the win. He has 20 points and will likely need somewhere between 10 and 20 more to get into the starting gate.

BRAVAZO – D.Wayne Lukas and Gary Stevens have given us some Derby winners in the past. I am not sure that we have Thunder Gulch or Winning Colors, but the fact is Stevens and Lukas will likely be teamed up in Louisville and both are going to be sentimental choices for many people who remember this duo. As far as the horse goes, it’s hard to make a case for him not continuing to improve. He was a bit wide early, he pressed the pace in what was a rather slow 1-1/16 mile race, but obviously has heart and wants to win. That counts for something. ADD HIM INTO YOUR DERBY FIELD – HE WILL BE IN KENTUCKY SOON, THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE DOES HIS VALUE GO FROM HErE.

NOBLE INDY – Pletcher is not the type to panic and neither is rider John Velazquez. He is no longer undefeated but this race may have benefited from the experience. He was not on the lead for the first time in his career and he did outfinish Instilled Regard for 3rd to earn 10 Derby qualification points. I think he stays on the Derby trail as long as he comes out of the race healthy.

OTHERS THAT STILL MAY BE A FACTOR

EBBEN: I think he deserves one more chance as well. He was caught wide throughout and I am sorry but not many 3yo are going to close on the pace after being 4wide the entire way. Hopefully, we see EBBEN in the Louisiana Derby. I want to see him one more time.

Share this:

MAGNUM MOON

Share this:

BRAVAZO (Gary Stevens/D. Wayne Lukas)

NOBLE INDY (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher)

MARMELLO (Jack Gilligan/Mikhail Yanakov)

GIVEMEAMINIT (Javier Castellano/D. Stewart)

RETIREMENT FUND (S. Brdgmohan/S.Asmussen)

HYNDFORD (Joe Bravo/Todd Pletcher)

SNAPPER SINCLAIR (Jose L Ortiz/ Asmussen)

LONE SAILOR (James Graham/Thomas Amoss)

MY BOY JACK (Kent Desormeaux/K Desormeaux)

DARK TEMPLAR (Florent Geroux/Brendan Walsh)

Share this:

Share this:

TITLE READY (Jose Ortiz / Steve Asmussen)

CURLIN’S HONOR (Florent Geroux/Mark Casse)

SOLOMINI (Flavien Prat / Bob Baffert)

MAGNUM MOON (Luis Saez / Todd Pletcher)

HIGHER POWER (R.Eramia / Don Von Hemel)

PRYOR (David Cabrera / Ron Moquett)

SPORTING CHANCE (J.Velazquez/D.Wayne Lukas)

HIGH NORTH (Gary Stevens / Brad Cox)

ZING ZANG (Corey Lanerie / S. Asmussen)

COMBATANT (R. Santana Jr. / S. Asmussen)

BODE’S MAKER (J.Loveberry/Allen Milligan)

Share this:

BOLT D’ORO

JUSTIFY

MCKINZIE

ENTICED

FREE DROP BILLY

FIRENZE FIRE

INSTILLED REGARD

AVERY ISLAND

SOLOMINI

SPORTING CHANCE

GOOD MAGIC

COMBATANT

Share this:

May the head-bobs ever be in your favor.

Share this:

Here is a full trip breakdown for the field from start to finish…

THE BREAK

FIRST TURN

BACKSTRETCH

FAR TURN

STRETCH-RUN

TRIP SUMMARIES:

*So I supposed the major question is “Did we see a Kentucky Derby contender here?”

Current Derby Rankings (Qualified candidates only)

Share this:

#1 – HE TAKES CHARGE (Tyler Gafflione/Mark Casse)

#2 – FREE DROP BILLY (Robby Albarado/Dale Romans)

#3 – PEPPERED (Nik Juarez/Reade Baker)

#4 – STRIKE POWER (Luis Saez/Mark Hennig)

#5 – STORM RUNNER (Joel Rosario/Dale Romans)

#6 – GOOD MAGIC (Jose L. Ortiz/Chad C. Brown)

#7 – GOTTA GO (Chris Landeros/Ian Wilkes)

#8 – MARCONI (JJ Castellano/Todd Pletcher)

#9 – MACHISMO (Albin Jiminez/Anthony Quartarolo)

#10 – PROMISES FULFILLED (Irad Ortiz Jr/Dale Romans)

Share this:

Share this: