The Grade 1 – Louisiana Derby tomorrow drew a field of 10 with a couple of newcomers that we haven’t seen at The Fair Grounds in 2018. The morning-line favorite is Grade 2 – Rebel Stakes winner MY BOY JACK, a 3-year-old bay colt by Creative Cause out of the Mineshaft mare Gold N Shaft. Risen Star winner BRAVAZO, a 3-year-old dark brown colt by Awesome Again out of the Cee’s Tizzy mare Tiz o’ Gold. The clash of these two horses which already have earned enough points to get a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate on May 5th is going to be very interesting.
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BRAVAZO (Gary Stevens/D. Wayne Lukas)
I talked briefly about BRAVAZO through a number of my articles and races he was involved. He has been entered in four meaningful races when it comes to qualifying for the Derby. He ran 2nd in the Grade 1 – Breeders’ Futurity at 47-1 missing by four lengths behind FREE DROP BILLY. He then decided to run in the Street Sense Stakes instead of the Breeders Cup, he ran 3rd behind winner GOTTA GO and 2nd-place finisher LONE SAILOR whom he will face in the Louisiana Derby. His last start as a 2-year-old came in the Kentucky Jockey Club and he laid an egg finishing last beaten 12 lengths by Gotham winner, ENTICED.
He took six weeks off before debuting as a 3-year-old in an 8-furlong allowance race at Oaklawn in mid-January, he won by a neck defeating a decent group as the 5-2 second-choice in the betting.
If you didn’t get a chance to watch the replay of the Risen Star it is worth taking a look. BRAVAZO looked to float out a bit at the top of the lane losing a bit of ground in doing so. BRAVAZO also looked to be getting a bit leg weary late and drifted out in the final 100 yards while digging down deep to fend off pace-setting rival SNAPPER SINCLAIR by a nose.
The main questions to answer with BRAVAZO and the ones I will give you the answer to if you donate to my website are:
- How important is it to D. Wayne Lukas that BRAVAZO perform well in his last prep before the Kentucky Derby?
- Can BRAVAZO get the nine-furlongs needed to win after looking a little wobbly going 8½-furlongs in the Risen Star?
- Will switching from Miguel Mena to Gary Stevens have any effect on the outcome?
FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448
NOBLE INDY (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher)
He was a very tough call for me in the Risen Star. After what Todd did last year with horses with limited experience in these Derby preps, I couldn’t help but think that he could pull it off again. I am not very high on the sire Take Charge Indy. However, the dam Noble Maz has already produced a stakes winning sibling in addition to the now having a Graded-Stakes-Placed colt in NOBLE INDY. Whomever she foals in the future, it’s definitely worth adding to your Equibase Virtual Stable.
Noble Indy had pressed the pace and had the lead by the time the field hit the eighth pole in his first two start and he went on to control the rest of the race and win. In the Risen Star, he was bumped at the break as it shows in his short comment but it wasn’t anything that affected the outcome of his race. He ran right through the bump and continued on near the front of the pack, had he wanted the lead, Velazquez could have pushed it a bit more, but he decided to sit just off the top two and thought that those two longshots would collapse. That didn’t happen.
This is the most important information regarding NOBLE INDY in the Risen Star and I will let it go in this portion and not in the donation-required section. If you watch the replay very closely. You will see that NOBLE INDY is attending the pace on the rail through the first turn. For some reason, Velazquez backed off the gas and didn’t want to be on the lead, SNAPPER SINCLAIR moved forward and there was a lack of room as they began to exit the first turn, NOBLE INDY then got in a difficult position. He had the favorite, INSTILLED REGARD just to his outside and slightly ahead. Larger horses can intimidate smaller or average size horses when you get stuck on the inside with those big horses pushing you every step of the way. I think this is where NOBLE INDY lost the race. I don’t know if he got intimidated or not, but I have no idea why Velazquez backed off the lead. He essentially gave SNAPPER SINCLAIR the spot that he had. And, SNAPPER SINCLAIR was a head-bob away from winning it.
What are the major questions regarding NOBLE INDY going into tomorrow’s Louisiana Derby?
- Where is NOBLE INDY going to try to win this race from? Are they going to try and wire it, like they should’ve in the Risen Star? Or, do they try and settle off the pace given the longer distance?
- Todd Pletcher has another entry in the race with speed. Todd is smart, they both are not going to send. Who lays off the lead?
- Is there more quality speed in this field than there was in the Risen Star? How does it affect the performance of NOBLE INDY?
- FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448
MARMELLO (Jack Gilligan/Mikhail Yanakov)
Still a maiden as of post-time tomorrow, is it possible that we could see a repeat of what Irap did in the Bluegrass Stakes last year? Probably not. At 50-1 on the morning-line, the odds-maker is probably being generous. He did show very good speed in his debut on the turf going 5½furlongs at The Fair Grounds. He followed it up with an 8½ furlong performance of similarity. He went for the lead and was wore down in the final sixteenth to finish fourth.
These are the kind of horses that can make a dent and hit the board in these big Derby preps. Nobody takes a real look at them and they nearly run away with the race early before being caught in the final yards. Every once and awhile we have scenarios like Irap in last year’s Bluegrass where there is a complete lack of speed and the horse can slow it down to win it from the front-end.
MARMELLO’s biggest problem is he is not lone speed. If they decide to change tactics it may be there best option. Otherwise, this race could get out of hand early and set up for the big closers to the outside.
MARMELLO is out of the sire Concord Point who might mean nothing to any of you but the grandsire is Tapit who I am sure you all know very well. On the bottom, he is out of Anychanceatadance who was by Scat Daddy. In simple terms, the pedigree is stout and I kind of like this one if he stays above 50-1.
FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448
GIVEMEAMINIT (Javier Castellano/D. Stewart)
This Louisiana-bred has shown some ability in big races. He ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 3rd in the Hopeful at Saratoga. He ran his entire 2-year-old season in major Grade 1 stakes races as a maiden. He finally decided to take on maidens at The Fair Grounds at the end of January and he was a ridden out winner at odds of 1-9. He then came back in the Risen Star where honestly I didn’t think he had the best of chances to pull the upset.
Now that he has had another four weeks off and with the speed in the race, the improvement in jockey from Bridgmohan to Castellano could mean some improvement. Enough to win, ehhh… maybe.
Note: *This colt’s BEST BRISNET DIRT SPEED is close to the average winning speed needed to win this race.*
RETIREMENT FUND (S. Brdgmohan/S.Asmussen)
We talked a bit about RETIREMENT FUND never sniffing anything but the lead in his first two starts prior to the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn four weeks ago. Things didn’t go that way perfect for the 3-year-old colt by Eskendereya out of the Street Cry (IRE) mare Northern Station. He is definitely well bred to succeed as the races get longer.
The track condition the day of the Southwest was unique and Kent Desormeaux called it “like peanut-butter”. The chart caller had RETIREMENT FUND stalking the pace in the three-path before making a four-wide bid and faltering.
In all honestly, he broke well, the jockey didn’t have to do very much with him, he settled nicely about four lengths off the lead, saved ground on the inside, he shifted out heading into the far turn, and began to gain ground three-to-four-wide. His speed just simply was not fast enough. He got outrun. It didn’t have anything to do with switching leads late or finding trouble. He simply just got outrun. COMBATANT came up on his outside and he failed to sustain his bid.
FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448
HYNDFORD (Joe Bravo/Todd Pletcher)
Well here we have the biggest wildcard in the race. One of the few 3-year-old’s I have not seen yet this year. This colt by Street Cry(IRE)out of the Candy Ride mare Niji’s Grand Girl is well bred for the distance and should succeed in the classic distances. He pressed the pace in his debut at Gulfstream on the turf before weakening in the lane but showed fight. In his maiden breaking victory, he again pressed the pace three-wide and attacked off the turn, this time on dirt, at odds of 4-5. He had a bit of trouble bumping with a foe in deep stretch.
The biggest note and it will be the reason this one will probably will be less than 7-2 tomorrow. He set the pace in his most recent allowance race but couldn’t hang on. He was caught in the final sixteenth by Rebel Stakes winner MAGNUM MOON.
Whether or not you like MAGNUM MOON, his pedigree and/or conformation, he won that race going away. HYNDFORD’s biggest problem is his running style. In every race he has ran, he has been close to the lead or on it, in my opinion, he is going to have to try and settle back a little bit farther early on in the Louisiana Derby to have any chance of getting this done.
If Bravo decides to send, we just have another reason to favor the closers in the race. This is a very similar type of entry to what Pletcher did last year, entering these horses with little experience, and trying to qualify for the Derby in their 3rd or 4th start. It worked out last year for him, but I have yet to see an Always Dreaming type favorite.
FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448
SNAPPER SINCLAIR (Jose L Ortiz/ Asmussen)
The 3yo bay colt nearly pulled one of the biggest upsets in modern Derby prep history in the Risen Star. Had he had just a little more speed late, he would have been on the other side of the nose in the photo. Tough breaks happen and Steve Asmussen has had his share along the way.
This colt had two very impressive victories leading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and I am not sure what exactly happen that day in California, but SNAPPER SINCLAIR laid an egg. He finished 12th of 14 entries and he was caught wide while steadying on the turn. Either way, he went from 5th at the first call to 11th at the second call. Personally, I am going to just draw a line through that race. It was on the turf for one and it’s going to tell me very little about how he is going to perform tomorrow.
He showed early speed in the Lecomte in January. His first start in seven weeks. He then came back a little quicker in the Risen Star and grabbed the early lead but it wasn’t uncontested. He was head-to-head with BRAVAZO pretty much the entire way. He finished with a very game effort and he earned 20 points towards the Kentucky Derby qualification standings as a result. He currently holds 22 points and might need roughly 10 more to qualify.
FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448
LONE SAILOR (James Graham/Thomas Amoss)
We haven’t seen LONE SAILOR since the Lecomte in mid-January. Following his poor effort in his 3yo debut, he opted for an allowance race in February and ran 2nd to a fellow foe which he will also face today in DARK TEMPLAR.
Amoss switched tactics in his most recent effort and tried to let LONE SAILOR settle off the pace and make a run at the leaders. Considering how much speed there is in this race, it could be very beneficial to this type of horse. He has an extremely hot trainer (30% in 114 starts). He got jockey Graham to stick with him for this mount. That can’t hurt and it actually tells me that he might think that he has something with this horse.
His speed figures on paper are simply not very fast in comparison with othersin the field. His fastest start came in his lone start in the slop as a 2yo at Saratoga in which he won by 11 lengths.
FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448
MY BOY JACK (Kent Desormeaux/K Desormeaux)
Team Desormeaux made me look like an expert at this game when they scored in the Southwest on Presidents Day. A lot of things went there way that day, track conditions, rail bias, and the race set-up beautifully for them turning for home.
Whether it was the peanut-buttery track or just all out talent, this 3yo colt by Creative Cause ran away with the Southwest in style. He is going to need to produce a similar run here to earn enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. For winning the Southwest, he earned 10 points. He also earned two points for his 3rd place finish in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita.
Where do those efforts put him in this field?
At this point, I am a bit undecided when it comes to MY BOY JACK. I loved him in the Southwest Stakes. As far as pace scenario goes, I love him again, but what kind odds can I get on him. There are a number of factors that go into how I would bet this race.
FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448
DARK TEMPLAR (Florent Geroux/Brendan Walsh)
First time we have seen this 3yo colt by Tapit out of the Storm Cat mare Hurricane Flag. Debuted with a front-running victory at Churchill in November. Then he was completely out run by PRINCIPE GUILHERME who we saw in the Lecomte. He was then bumped at the break and had major trouble late in his 3rd start in which today’s foe RETIREMENT FUND got the win.
In his latest start, he was able to better LONE SAILOR who we have already talked about and seen during this Road to the Derby.
Simply, it just comes down to how good is he? He hasn’t really proved a whole lot against the better of the 3yo crop. Or at least what we think is the better of the 3yo crop. Personally, I think his versatility is an asset, but he is going to really have to step up his game to make an impact on the outcome.
He was a $475k purchase at the Keeneland September Sales and I have a feeling that this one has a big future in front of him somewhere down the line.
FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448
I’ll try to get something on paper for the Sunland Derby. I likely will just give you a quick preview of my selections as I currently have not looked at the entries.
Next week, we will cover the UAE Derby and the Florida Derby. Both are 100-40-20-10 races.
It is going to be interesting where the point cutoff this year for qualification ends up. If I had to predict it right now, I would guess somewhere between 35-40. Your thoughts would be appreciate in the comments?
Road to the Kentucky Derby 2018 