It’s Derby week y’all – Visit Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose and get your PICKS, ANALYSIS, and a COMPLETE BREAKDOWN of the 144th Running of the Kentucky Derby.

Alright racing fans, we have reached the pinnacle for 3 year-old’s this Spring. The Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby is my 2^nd weekend of horse race during the year preceded by the Breeders’ Cup World Championships each Fall.  We have a very solid Kentucky Derby field set to run on Saturday with at least two-thirds of the field with a realistic shot to hit the board. The Kentucky Oaks is highlighted by a couple elite fillies in Midnight Bisou and Monomoy Girl, and it’s going to take a remarkable effort to beat those two and 11 other fillies on Friday.

If you would like my complete breakdown of the Kentucky Derby, my Kentucky Derby picks, and/or my Kentucky Derby bets. Please make a donation to the following link and you will get exactly what I think is going to happen on Friday and Saturday.

 

It’s not as simple as just betting JUSTIFY and cashing in on the favorite for the 6^th straight year. One thing is for sure, I will make money Saturday. I have a few horses I really like in Kentucky and remember folks, I work at Canterbury all Summer with the ponies. My biggest profits are made at the local establishment Canterbury Park, but the Derby can change your life if you are willing to spend the money.

There will be thousands of people who pick winners on Friday and Saturday. There will be few who go home with thousands of dollars in your pocket. We all have good days and bad days, but there is a reason I have been writing about every Derby prep for the past six months. It’s for this weekend. This is when I take my shot and go for it all.

If you want the Kentucky Derby Saturday picks the minimum donation is $10 via the Pay Pal link below. If you would like Friday and Saturday’s picks the minimum donation is $15. If you want the entire Triple Crown picks the minimum donation is $25 and that includes (Oaks Friday, Derby Saturday, Preakness Saturday, and Belmont Saturday). Now please understand that is every race for each of those days. That adds up to about 50 races in total. You can imagine the amount of time that is going to consume if we do this the right way.

I have been doing this site for free for a long time for absolutely nothing. It’s a passion of mine and I would love to make money for myself as well as someone else. If you make a donation of $50 or more, I will send you all my picks for the Summer as well. They are not going to be the every race day type picks. These are going to be the picks that I know are great bets. If you want a piece of that. I appreciate it so much. You don’t quite understand how much this all means to me. I truly want you to be at the IRS window Saturday or if you are not at the track, earn an IRS certificate via your online account. There has been great news, the government switched the rules last year so you will only have to pay taxes on winnings of more than 300-1 or $1199+.

Good luck to everyone this weekend whether you donate to this site or not, I am rooting for you.

Saturday’s Florida draws a field of nine. Audible, Promises Fulfilled, and Catholic Boy will battle for favortism, but are they actually the best bet in the race?

We have finally reached the last chance for every 3-year-old’s owner/trainer/connections to achieve their dreams of qualifying for this year’s Kentucky Derby on May 5^th. The Grade 1 – Florida Derby coming up Saturday from Gulfstream Park drew nine entrants and should be a very good chance for three horses to qualify for the Derby.

Here is a brief look at the nine entrants – for my official analysis and breakdown… Follow instructions in the link at the end of the article…

  STRIKE POWER (Luis Saez/Mark Hennig)

The runner-up of the Fountain of Youth really surprised me holding for 2^nd with the limitations expected in the pedigree as the distances continue to increased towards the Triple Crown. Will garner much more respect from me moving forward. The post position is a definite positive as well.

 MILLIONAIRE RUNNER (Jose Batista/Jaime Mejia)

I know very little about this 3-year-old by Warrior’s Reward out of the Silver Charm mare Petite Charme. MILLIONAIRE RUNNER’s dam has produced five winners in five starters, but with this one’s best performance coming in his second chance running for a tag at the MCL30k level, my optimism is not very high. I do remember this horse breaking quickly and fading to the back in the Grade 2 – Remsen as a 2-year-old, and coming out of the race, I never thought I would see this horse in another Derby prep. There is going to need to be some serious improvement to hit the board.

 TIP SHEET (Edgard Zayas/Stanley Gold)

When I saw this horse was entered, I thought it was a new horse to the Derby trail, but apparently we saw him in the Holy Bull in February. He is coming out of the same allowance-race as MILLIONAIRE RUNNER whom he finished a half-length in front of to finish 3^rd. This 3-year-old also that went off at73-1 in the Holy Bull will probably be longer odds in the Florida Derby. I am not even sure why Stanley entered him in this race, but with the limited nine entries. A solid performance and career best could surprise us all and make him a 99-1 shot in the Derby.

 PROMISES FULFILLED (R. Albarado/D. Romans)

A little surprising is the jockey chance from Jose Ortiz to Dale Romans here in this spot, but Robby guided this one to gate to wire victories in his first two starts. It’s possible Romans just made a one race deal with Jose so it might not be a coincidence at all. PROMISES FULFILLED got a much better post position in this one. I didn’t notice this last time but the Fountain of Youth was his first time with front wraps so make sure to check that out. I am not going to go completely into this, but I do think we could see a much more significant battle for the pace between this one and STRIKE POWER. I will let that stew in your mind. In the case you decide to donate to keep this page going, I will give you a much stronger opinion of what I actually feel will happen with this entrant.

 STORM RUNNER (T Gafflione/D Romans)

With PROMISES FULFILLED having qualified for the Derby already, there is a very strong chance that we could see some real quirky planning by the ultimate mastermind in Mr. Romans. I made it very clear my thoughts of this one last time out. Again, think about it. Look at the pace scenario, do the math.

 CATHOLIC BOY (Irad Ortiz Jr./Jonathan Thomas)

If you watch the replay of the Sam F. Davis, which you should get in the habit of doing if you want to become an elite handicapper. You will notice that CATHOLIC BOY sat off the pace and was making a big run into the stretch at Tampa. In my opinion, Tampa is an extremely unique surface. This horse needs a good performance badly.

 HOFBURG (Jose L. Ortiz/William Mott)

Okay so now you can see where Jose Ortiz ended up. I highly doubt he jumped off PROMISES FULFILLED on purpose. Or maybe he saw the pace scenario and he did make the decision to do this. I am not familiar with this horse so I do not know how good he really is with only two starts under the belt. Or, maybe I do know how good he is? PLEASE DONATE BELOW.

 AUDIBLE (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher)

Another curious decision. Why is J.J. Castellano not on this horse? Maybe Pletcher made a two race deal with him considering Velazquez one his most recent start with this one back at Aqueduct in a MSW race for NY breds. This $500k purchase by Into Mischief out of the Gilded Time mare Blue Devil Bel is considered a Derby-favorite if he comes into this race and performs like he did in his Holy Bull romp. What is the game plan Saturday and is he a worthy favorite? With only 10 points, he needs at the very minimum a 3^rd place finish and that might not be good enough.

 MISSISSIPPI (Julien Leparoux/Mark Casse)

After a nice runner-up performance to Storm Runner back in early February, the connections opted for that rather than a shot at the Holy Bull. I am not sure what they really think of this horse. I had him in my virtual stable after his 2yo performance in November. He is by Pioneerof the Nile out of the Storm Cat mare Katz Me if You Can was purchased by Michael Tabor and his group for $700k. He could be extremely dangerous if ready.

For a full breakdown of the race and an individual analysis of each horses past performances and pedigree, donate to keep this page going via the following link. The amount is up to you. I will keep my word and give you all the information I have whether it’s $5 or $25. If you are just here to check out the site, I appreciate you taking the time to read the article. Here is the link to donate: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448\\\

Risen Star Stakes winner BRAVAZO and Southwest Stakes winner MY BOY JACK clash in the Grade 1 – Louisiana Derby from The Fair Grounds.

The Grade 1 – Louisiana Derby tomorrow drew a field of 10 with a couple of newcomers that we haven’t seen at The Fair Grounds in 2018. The morning-line favorite is Grade 2 – Rebel Stakes winner MY BOY JACK, a 3-year-old bay colt by Creative Cause out of the Mineshaft mare Gold N Shaft. Risen Star winner BRAVAZO, a 3-year-old dark brown colt by Awesome Again out of the Cee’s Tizzy mare Tiz o’ Gold. The clash of these two horses which already have earned enough points to get a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate on May 5^th is going to be very interesting.

For a full breakdown of the race and an individual analysis of each horses past performances and pedigree, donate to keep this page going via the following link. The amount is up to you. I will keep my word and give you all the information I have whether it’s $5 or $25. If you are just here to check out the site, I appreciate you taking the time to read the article. Here is the link to donate: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448\\\

    BRAVAZO (Gary Stevens/D. Wayne Lukas)

I talked briefly about BRAVAZO through a number of my articles and races he was involved. He has been entered in four meaningful races when it comes to qualifying for the Derby. He ran 2^nd in the Grade 1 – Breeders’ Futurity at 47-1 missing by four lengths behind FREE DROP BILLY. He then decided to run in the Street Sense Stakes instead of the Breeders Cup, he ran 3^rd behind winner GOTTA GO and 2^nd-place finisher LONE SAILOR whom he will face in the Louisiana Derby. His last start as a 2-year-old came in the Kentucky Jockey Club and he laid an egg finishing last beaten 12 lengths by Gotham winner, ENTICED.

He took six weeks off before debuting as a 3-year-old in an 8-furlong allowance race at Oaklawn in mid-January, he won by a neck defeating a decent group as the 5-2 second-choice in the betting.

If you didn’t get a chance to watch the replay of the Risen Star it is worth taking a look. BRAVAZO looked to float out a bit at the top of the lane losing a bit of ground in doing so. BRAVAZO also looked to be getting a bit leg weary late and drifted out in the final 100 yards while digging down deep to fend off pace-setting rival SNAPPER SINCLAIR by  a nose.

The main questions to answer with BRAVAZO and the ones I will give you the answer to if you donate to my website are:

1. How important is it to D. Wayne Lukas that BRAVAZO perform well in his last prep before the Kentucky Derby?
2. Can BRAVAZO get the nine-furlongs needed to win after looking a little wobbly going 8½-furlongs in the Risen Star?
3. Will switching from Miguel Mena to Gary Stevens have any effect on the outcome?

 

FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

  NOBLE INDY (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher)

He was a very tough call for me in the Risen Star. After what Todd did last year with horses with limited experience in these Derby preps, I couldn’t help but think that he could pull it off again. I am not very high on the sire Take Charge Indy. However, the dam Noble Maz has already produced a stakes winning sibling in addition to the now having a Graded-Stakes-Placed colt in NOBLE INDY. Whomever she foals in the future, it’s definitely worth adding to your Equibase Virtual Stable.

Noble Indy had pressed the pace and had the lead by the time the field hit the eighth pole in his first two start and he went on to control the rest of the race and win. In the Risen Star, he was bumped at the break as it shows in his short comment but it wasn’t anything that affected the outcome of his race. He ran right through the bump and continued on near the front of the pack, had he wanted the lead, Velazquez could have pushed it a bit more, but he decided to sit just off the top two and thought that those two longshots would collapse. That didn’t happen.

This is the most important information regarding NOBLE INDY in the Risen Star and I will let it go in this portion and not in the donation-required section. If you watch the replay very closely. You will see that NOBLE INDY is attending the pace on the rail through the first turn. For some reason, Velazquez backed off the gas and didn’t want to be on the lead, SNAPPER SINCLAIR moved forward and there was a lack of room as they began to exit the first turn, NOBLE INDY then got in a difficult position. He had the favorite, INSTILLED REGARD just to his outside and slightly ahead. Larger horses can intimidate smaller or average size horses when you get stuck on the inside with those big horses pushing you every step of the way. I think this is where NOBLE INDY lost the race. I don’t know if he got intimidated or not, but I have no idea why Velazquez backed off the lead. He essentially gave SNAPPER SINCLAIR the spot that he had. And, SNAPPER SINCLAIR was a head-bob away from winning it.

What are the major questions regarding NOBLE INDY going into tomorrow’s Louisiana Derby?

1. Where is NOBLE INDY going to try to win this race from? Are they going to try and wire it, like they should’ve in the Risen Star? Or, do they try and settle off the pace given the longer distance?
2. Todd Pletcher has another entry in the race with speed. Todd is smart, they both are not going to send. Who lays off the lead?
3. Is there more quality speed in this field than there was in the Risen Star? How does it affect the performance of NOBLE INDY?
4. FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

  MARMELLO (Jack Gilligan/Mikhail Yanakov)

Still a maiden as of post-time tomorrow, is it possible that we could see a repeat of what Irap did in the Bluegrass Stakes last year? Probably not. At 50-1 on the morning-line, the odds-maker is probably being generous. He did show very good speed in his debut on the turf going 5½furlongs at The Fair Grounds. He followed it up with an 8½ furlong performance of similarity. He went for the lead and was wore down in the final sixteenth to finish fourth.

These are the kind of horses that can make a dent and hit the board in these big Derby preps. Nobody takes a real look at them and they nearly run away with the race early before being caught in the final yards. Every once and awhile we have scenarios like Irap in last year’s Bluegrass where there is a complete lack of speed and the horse can slow it down to win it from the front-end.

MARMELLO’s biggest problem is he is not lone speed. If they decide to change tactics it may be there best option. Otherwise, this race could get out of hand early and set up for the big closers to the outside.

MARMELLO is out of the sire Concord Point who might mean nothing to any of you but the grandsire is Tapit who I am sure you all know very well. On the bottom, he is out of Anychanceatadance who was by Scat Daddy. In simple terms, the pedigree is stout and I kind of like this one if he stays above 50-1.

FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

  GIVEMEAMINIT (Javier Castellano/D. Stewart)

This Louisiana-bred has shown some ability in big races. He ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 3^rd in the Hopeful at Saratoga. He ran his entire 2-year-old season in major Grade 1 stakes races as a maiden. He finally decided to take on maidens at The Fair Grounds at the end of January and he was a ridden out winner at odds of 1-9. He then came back in the Risen Star where honestly I didn’t think he had the best of chances to pull the upset.

Now that he has had another four weeks off and with the speed in the race, the improvement in jockey from Bridgmohan to Castellano could mean some improvement. Enough to win, ehhh… maybe.

Note: *This colt’s BEST BRISNET DIRT SPEED is close to the average winning speed needed to win this race.*

  RETIREMENT FUND (S. Brdgmohan/S.Asmussen)

We talked a bit about RETIREMENT FUND never sniffing anything but the lead in his first two starts prior to the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn four weeks ago. Things didn’t go that way perfect for the 3-year-old colt by Eskendereya out of the Street Cry (IRE) mare Northern Station. He is definitely well bred to succeed as the races get longer.

The track condition the day of the Southwest was unique and Kent Desormeaux called it “like peanut-butter”. The chart caller had RETIREMENT FUND stalking the pace in the three-path before making a four-wide bid and faltering.

In all honestly, he broke well, the jockey didn’t have to do very much with him, he settled nicely about four lengths off the lead, saved ground on the inside, he shifted out heading into the far turn, and began to gain ground three-to-four-wide. His speed just simply was not fast enough. He got outrun. It didn’t have anything to do with switching leads late or finding trouble. He simply just got outrun. COMBATANT came up on his outside and he failed to sustain his bid.

FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

  HYNDFORD (Joe Bravo/Todd Pletcher)

Well here we have the biggest wildcard in the race. One of the few 3-year-old’s I have not seen yet this year. This colt by Street Cry(IRE)out of the Candy Ride mare Niji’s Grand Girl is well bred for the distance and should succeed in the classic distances. He pressed the pace in his debut at Gulfstream on the turf before weakening in the lane but showed fight. In his maiden breaking victory, he again pressed the pace three-wide and attacked off the turn, this time on dirt, at odds of 4-5. He had a bit of trouble bumping with a foe in deep stretch.

The biggest note and it will be the reason this one will probably will be less than 7-2 tomorrow. He set the pace in his most recent allowance race but couldn’t hang on. He was caught in the final sixteenth by Rebel Stakes winner MAGNUM MOON.

Whether or not you like MAGNUM MOON, his pedigree and/or conformation, he won that race going away. HYNDFORD’s biggest problem is his running style. In every race he has ran, he has been close to the lead or on it, in my opinion, he is going to have to try and settle back a little bit farther early on in the Louisiana Derby to have any chance of getting this done.

If Bravo decides to send, we just have another reason to favor the closers in the race. This is a very similar type of entry to what Pletcher did last year, entering these horses with little experience, and trying to qualify for the Derby in their 3^rd or 4^th start. It worked out last year for him, but I have yet to see an Always Dreaming type favorite.

FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

 

 SNAPPER SINCLAIR (Jose L Ortiz/ Asmussen)

The 3yo bay colt nearly pulled one of the biggest upsets in modern Derby prep history in the Risen Star. Had he had just a little more speed late, he would have been on the other side of the nose in the photo. Tough breaks happen and Steve Asmussen has had his share along the way.

This colt had two very impressive victories leading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and I am not sure what exactly happen that day in California, but SNAPPER SINCLAIR laid an egg. He finished 12^th of 14 entries and he was caught wide while steadying on the turn. Either way, he went from 5^th at the first call to 11^th at the second call. Personally, I am going to just draw a line through that race. It was on the turf for one and it’s going to tell me very little about how he is going to perform tomorrow.

He showed early speed in the Lecomte in January. His first start in seven weeks. He then came back a little quicker in the Risen Star and grabbed the early lead but it wasn’t uncontested. He was head-to-head with BRAVAZO pretty much the entire way. He finished with a very game effort and he earned 20 points towards the Kentucky Derby qualification standings as a result. He currently holds 22 points and might need roughly 10 more to qualify.

FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

  LONE SAILOR (James Graham/Thomas Amoss)

We haven’t seen LONE SAILOR since the Lecomte in mid-January. Following his poor effort in his 3yo debut, he opted for an allowance race in February and ran 2^nd to a fellow foe which he will also face today in DARK TEMPLAR.

Amoss switched tactics in his most recent effort and tried to let LONE SAILOR settle off the pace and make a run at the leaders. Considering how much speed there is in this race, it could be very beneficial to this type of horse. He has an extremely hot trainer (30% in 114 starts). He got jockey Graham to stick with him for this mount. That can’t hurt and it actually tells me that he might think that he has something with this horse.

His speed figures on paper are simply not very fast in comparison with othersin the field. His fastest start came in his lone start in the slop as a 2yo at Saratoga in which he won by 11 lengths.

FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

MY BOY JACK (Kent Desormeaux/K Desormeaux)

Team Desormeaux made me look like an expert at this game when they scored in the Southwest on Presidents Day. A lot of things went there way that day, track conditions, rail bias, and the race set-up beautifully for them turning for home.

Whether it was the peanut-buttery track or just all out talent, this 3yo colt by Creative Cause ran away with the Southwest in style. He is going to need to produce a similar run here to earn enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. For winning the Southwest, he earned 10 points. He also earned two points for his 3^rd place finish in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita.

Where do those efforts put him in this field?

At this point, I am a bit undecided when it comes to MY BOY JACK. I loved him in the Southwest Stakes. As far as pace scenario goes, I love him again, but what kind odds can I get on him. There are a number of factors that go into how I would bet this race.

FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

DARK TEMPLAR (Florent Geroux/Brendan Walsh)

First time we have seen this 3yo colt by Tapit out of the Storm Cat mare Hurricane Flag. Debuted with a front-running victory at Churchill in November. Then he was completely out run by PRINCIPE GUILHERME who we saw in the Lecomte. He was then bumped at the break and had major trouble late in his 3^rd start in which today’s foe RETIREMENT FUND got the win.

In his latest start, he was able to better LONE SAILOR who we have already talked about and seen during this Road to the Derby.

Simply, it just comes down to how good is he? He hasn’t really proved a whole lot against the better of the 3yo crop. Or at least what we think is the better of the 3yo crop. Personally, I think his versatility is an asset, but he is going to really have to step up his game to make an impact on the outcome.

He was a $475k purchase at the Keeneland September Sales and I have a feeling that this one has a big future in front of him somewhere down the line.

FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

 

I’ll try to get something on paper for the Sunland Derby. I likely will just give you a quick preview of my selections as I currently have not looked at the entries.

Next week, we will cover the UAE Derby and the Florida Derby. Both are 100-40-20-10 races.

It is going to be interesting where the point cutoff this year for qualification ends up. If I had to predict it right now, I would guess somewhere between 35-40. Your thoughts would be appreciate in the comments?

Blended Citizen wins Grade 3 – Jeff Ruby Steaks with prolonged drive to grab the lead in the stretch.

The Grade 3 – Jeff Ruby Steaks from Turfway Park had 34 points available for Kentucky Derby contenders.  The nine furlong event was on the Turfway Park synthetic surface and drew a full field of 12.  The 5-1 morning-line favorite HAZIT trained by Todd Pletcher was trying the poly track for the first time. It wasn’t meant to be this Saturday for Todd Pletcher at Turfway. Instead the Kentucky-bred shipping in from Northern California after finishing 3^rd in the El Camino Real Derby, BLENDED CITIZEN showed his will and guts to do one of the most difficult things in racing, rally on the inside in deep stretch. His determination and a great job finishing the race by jockey Kyle Frey, got BLENDED CITIZEN to the winners’circle at odds of 3-1.

I have a feeling that the numbers from this race are not going to come back very fast. As the final time was average. A couple things to note, I think the slow fourth quarter had to do with MUGARITZ opening up a wide margin and tiring rapidly. I came to this conclusion because Blended Citizen ran the final furlong in :12.06. He could be one of those horses that just consistently pounds along at one speed. Something that can be very beneficial at long distances. If he can run at that pace for 10 furlongs, he would have a definite shot in the Kentucky Derby. I still think there are questions yet to be answered but it was a very interesting outcome considering those factors.

Another note, favorite HAZIT stumbled badly at the start spotting the field about three lengths and was not a factor at all.  BLENDED CITIZEN and runner-up PONY UP were co-second choices in the race at odds of 6-1. Both raced in a prolonged drive.

At this point, I do think that we need to consider BLENDED CITIZEN a contender in his next Derby prep and if he proves he has the good on dirt. I would put him in my official contender list.

The Grade 2 – Rebel Stakes from Oaklawn Park draws a strong 11 entrants this Saturday. Bob Baffert looks for redemption with SOLOMINI after his tough break at Santa Anita last weekend.

The Grade 2 – Rebel Stakes from Oaklawn Park has produced Kentucky Derby winners American Pharoah and Smarty Jones, but has also been a major launching pad for countless starters in recent years. This year we find ourselves with 11 entrants who all have something to prove this weekend in Hot Springs, AR.  The morning-line favorite is likely to be another Bob Baffert trainee, the 3-year-old colt SOLOMINI. In the Grade 3 – Southwest Stakes, Baffert trainee MOURINHO went down in flames and SOLOMINI will be looking to right the wrongs and turn Bob’s luck around considering the tough break he caught in last weekend’s Grade 2 – San Felipe Stakes.

Here is a breakdown and analysis of the field for the Rebel Stakes…

  TITLE READY (Jose Ortiz / Steve Asmussen)

 

The 3-year-old dark bay colt by More Than Ready out of the Monarchos mare Title Seeker. He definitely is well bred to succeed the farther the distances get in the classic races. TITLE READY broke his maiden as a 2-year-old in his third start last October. It looks like Asmussen brought this one along slowly and he has been building on each race and improving in his next. He followed up his maiden win with a 3^rd=place finish in his first try versus winners. They then decided to shut him down before gearing him back up for his 3-year-old campaign.

In his 3yo debut he pressed the pace and shrugged off the pacesetter and drew away to a clear victory at Oaklawn Park on February 1^st. There is a lot to improve on but he put up a 94 Brisnet Speed Figure (BSF) and I would expect continued improvement over the next three races. He is going to need a career best in the Rebel to hit the board and be part of the outcome. There is no reason to believe that he can’t run a career best, but it all depends on how big of a number that needs to be.

FINAL WORD: For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

  CURLIN’S HONOR (Florent Geroux/Mark Casse)

There is no doubt that Curlin was a great horse, a fantastic horse as a matter of fact. His progeny tend to improve drastically at age 3 and we learn quickly whether or not they are going to make it in the racing world. This 3-year-old colt is by Curlin and out of the Stormin Fever mare Franscat. Franscat started 20 times, won twice, and earned $85k. Her dam Hopespringsagain started seven times, failed to win, and hit the board once. And there is not much else to speak of as far as winning goes in the female line.

Now as far as Curlin’s Honor goes there is a lot to be promising about. He has started twice in his career and won both of them. His debut was at Keeneland as a 2-year-old in October going 6 furlongs. He broke mid-pack, bumped a rival just past the half-mile pole and battled in a prolonged drive to win a neck on the wire at 4-5. He came back three weeks ago in an optional allowance against winners, broke in similar fashion and made a nice prolonged drive to the wire to get the win by a neck.

It will be his first try in graded stakes in the Rebel, but he has shown the ability to make a run at the leader at the right time of the race. He faced fast fractions in the slop at The Fair Grounds on February 25^th but he closed to hit the wire at the right time. He is likely not going to get those same fractions again and this is going to be his first time going two turns which gives him a significant advantage given his pedigree.

FINAL WORD: For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

   SOLOMINI (Flavien Prat / Bob Baffert)

This 3-year-old colt also by Curlin out of the Storm Car mare Surf Song was a $270k 2016 Keeneland September Sale purchase it and has earned every dollar back for her owners and then some. With a superior win in her debut at even money. He followed it up with a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 – Front Runner Stakes.

He propelled that into curiously enough a front-running second-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile earning him 8 points towards the Kentucky Derby qualification standings.

Unlike most 2-year-olds who wrapped up their season after the Breeders’ Cup, SOLOMINI continued his attempt to earn Derby qualification points and he won the Grade 1 – Los Alamitos Futurity. It ended his 2017 season with 18 total points towards the Derby meaning one solid performance in 2018 would lock up a spot in the Derby. He is going to go off as the favorite more than likely. His morning-line is 3-2.

FINAL WORD: For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

  MAGNUM MOON (Luis Saez / Todd Pletcher)

The $380k purchase by Malibu Moon out of the Unbridled’s Song mare Dazzling Song is 2 for 2 in his career. He has shown the ability to track the pace and attack past the quarter pole in both starts at Gulfstream and Tampa. In his last start he went off at 1-9 and was urged slightly at the top of the lane and was ridden out in hand late.

This will be his first attempt at graded stakes company and he is very well bred to succeed at the classic distances.

FINAL WORD: For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

HIGHER POWER (R.Eramia / Don Von Hemel)

The great Midwest trainer Donnie Von Hemel trains the 3-year-old by Medaglia d’Oro out of the Seattle Slew mare Alternate. His pedigree is as good as it gets for long distance races which begin with the three Triple Crown races for 3-year-old’s. This bay colt ran his debut at Remington Park, he tracked from the rear of the field and closed willingly five-wide to get up for third.

In his second start Von Hemel stretched him out to eight furlongs (1-mile) and HIGHER POWER showed a little more speed. He tracked the pace three-wide in third and made a prolonged drive to wear down his foe by a head. His third start in an allowance race going a mile, he tracked from fifth and made a four-wide run to get up in the final sixteenth to win by ¾ of a length. In all three of his starts, foes that finished in the top three came back to win their next start. In his debut, the top three finishers all came back to win next out. 1^st-place finisher, REDATORY came back to win the Clevor Trevor Stakes. 2^nd-place finisher ROYAL REALITY broke his maiden as did HIGHER POWER. In HIGHER POWER’s maiden victory, 3^rd-place finisher SPEEDY FELLAR came back to win next out at Remington Park.

2^nd-place finisher in his latest allowance victory, NEW YORK CENTRAL, a Steve Asmussen trainee by Tapit came back to win next out.  With the amount of winners surrounding HIGHER POWER I think he is a serious threat to hit the board at long odds. We’ll have to see how things shake out and how he looks on the track. If you want my opinion where he fits in as far as betting goes well click the link below.

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  PRYOR (David Cabrera / Ron Moquett)

This 3-year-old by Paynter out of the Distorted Humor mare Awesome Humor took four starts to break his maiden and he just did that on February 18^th. He had a couple starts as a 2-year-old at Churchill that were unsuccessful. He went gate to wire in his most recent start and did it very convincingly. He was put in a mild drive midstretch and opened up to win by nearly six lengths at 7-1 in the mud.

He has Awesome Again blood on the top and Distorted Humor blood on the bottom and that’s why he was purchased for $200k at the Ocala Breeders’ Sale. It will be interesting to see how he does as the races get longer. If the track is wet he could be very dangerous. Note that the times were very slow in his most recent win, it could have been track conditions or it could have been class.

FINAL WORD: For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

SPORTING CHANCE (J.Velazquez/D.Wayne Lukas)

We had a long analysis of SPORTING CHANCE last time in the Grade 3 – Southwest Stakes. It is my belief that he was in that race to build stamina and was not cranked up for the win. It definitely could be different this time around. These connections Velazquez/Lukas will be teaming up for the first time, but I expect a top effort.

Jockey Luis Saez opted to stay with Todd Pletcher’s MAGNUM MOON after two consecutive victories. He could be making a major mistake. It doesn’t happen often where Johnny V. is running against a Pletcher runner, but he is on a quality horse this time and will have a chance to win this.

FINAL WORD: For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

HIGH NORTH (Gary Stevens / Brad Cox)

Broke maiden as a 2-year-old at Keeneland going 8–½ furlongs by a nose. The 3-year-old by Midnight Lute out of the Awesome Again mare Spacy Tracy has top connections with Stevens and Cox. They are winning at a clip of almost 30% over the last 60 days and are hitting the board at a rate of 67%.

He is going to settle far back in the field and try to make a run at the pace on the far turn. There is not a lot of closing speed in this race so it is possible that with the distances continuing to get longer this colt could excel. He ran kind of flat last race, but it was his first off of a 3-month layoff. He should definitely have room to improve.

FINAL WORD: For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

  ZING ZANG  (Corey Lanerie / S. Asmussen)

Started his career running about once a month beginning in October. The 3-year-old grey colt by Tapit out of the Mr. Greeley mare Jet Away broke his maiden in his 3^rd start at odds of 5-1. He came back in the Grade 3 – Lecomte Stakes and closed ground willingly late to get up four fourth earning one point for Derby qualifying purposes. He settled back on the muddy track at Oaklawn in the Grade 3 – Southwest Stakes but failed to make up ground in the lane. It was a difficult track to close on unless you road the rail as MY BOY JACK did.

He is well bred but he is going to need a significant pace to make a winning run in the stretch. As the distances get further he will also get better.

FINAL WORD: For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

   COMBATANT (R. Santana Jr. / S. Asmussen)

The 3-year-old bay colt by Scat Daddy out of the Boundary mare Border Dispute has had a very successful but frustrating career thus far. He tracked the pace in the Springboard Mile, Smarty Jones, and Southwest but could only get up to be the runner up in all three.

His pedigree says he should be successful the further the races get, but he could have issues once we get to the Belmont. The average winning distance of his sire and dam comes out to about 7.15. We will find out around Arkansas Derby time if he is going to have trouble beyond 8–½ furlongs.

FINAL WORD: For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

BODE’S MAKER  (J.Loveberry/Allen Milligan)

The 3-year-old colt by Bodemeister out of the Vindication mare Romantic Folic has had more experience on the track than everybody in this race, but it’s not necessarily a good thing. He broke his maiden in his 3^rd start after breaking dead last and making prolonged rally going a mile. The half was in :46.4 which definitely helped and he won by 2-1/2 lengths.

His next three starts were in the Clevor Trevor, Springboard Mile, and Smarty Jones. He attempted to close in all three starts but got up for 2^nd in the Clevor Trevor, the other two attempts were unsuccessful. His latest start was an improvement in allowance company, but he is very inconsistent.

FINAL WORD: For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

Bolt D’Oro and McKinzie getting ready for a pre-Derby showdown in the Grade 2 – San Felipe Stakes from Santa Anita this Saturday

When you scan the internet landscape for handicappers “Top 10 Derby Contenders”, right now we will see Good Magic falling from a ‘Top 3’ position in almost everybody’s list. That leaves Bolt D’Oro as a clear candidate as the current Derby-favorite as long as he takes care of business in Saturday’s Grade 2 – San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.

One of the top jockeys in the history of the Kentucky Derby is Victor Espinoza. Earlier today he guided Bolt D’Oro to a blazing work of :46.40. Victor Espinoza said in an interview with the Paulick Report that BOLT D’ORO had improved between his works on Valentine’s Day (Feb.14) and today (Mar.5). In my opinion, it was one of the best works I have ever seen from that horse. I am not sure if it was pent up energy or did he use too much. I am a bit surprised that Mick Ruis let him go as quick as he did. We will see in the final quarter mile on Saturday if he has the leg strength he needs to kick home when he switches leads.

McKinzie is trained by Bob Baffert. He worked seven furlongs on March 4th in 1:23.80 and looked like he is near the top of his game. Mick Ruis has said that this race is not the race they care about. That’s a very dangerous road to travel. When you are not “trying” to win, it can lead to future problems. If it were me, I wouldn’t hold anything back. If you have the best horse and are pointing toward the Santa Anita Derby as the day you want to be at 100%, that’s fine and dandy but there are plenty of things that go wrong in horse races. BOLT D’ORO needs to earn his points, get past these next two races, and build towards the first Saturday in May. I get Ruis’ attitude but the race that matters most is the one where you earn roses. I think the quote that applies is “Com’n Man!”

I will  have a full breakdown and analysis of the race once the post-position draw is finished on Wednesday morning/afternoon.

May the head-bobs ever be in your favor.

Xpressbet Fountain of Youth – FINAL WORD (Updated)

Here is my prediction on the odds:

Good Magic (Value Line V/L: Even)

It’s hard seeing with amount of pace in this race from the #4,#9, #10 that it won’t set up beautifully for what will be an odds-on favorite in GOOD MAGIC.  I think Chad Brown gets the money unless – UNLESS if Good Magic gets too close to the pace and we see somebody come from far back.

Storm Runner (V/L: 8-1+)

I am not sure if this colt by Get Stormy was planned on being a dirt runner, but he has won both starts on the dirt, and if the pace breaksdown today, We could see him closing fast and furious if he can get the trip. He is my top upset pick.

He Takes Charge (V/L: 12-1+)

Tyler Gafflione is as good as anybody when it comes to riding the racetrack. He will have plenty of time to adjust to whatever bias if any there is during today’s card. You saw the pedigree in David’s e-mail and they worked him out last week to freshen up his legs, and I think that he should be about 90-100% fit. With the finish line at the 16th pole, he drew the perfect post position. As long as he avoids trouble and continues to improve like he has been doing, he could definitely play a part. My gut feeling just says he is not fast enough to compete with GOOD MAGIC if he runs anything like he did last year. 

Marconi (V/L: 5-1+)

With both horses to his outside showing a lot of speed, he should be able to get good position near the rear of the field to midpack if he wants it. Depending on his odds, he should do just fine in this spot

Gotta Go (V/L: 20-1+)

You would have to think Ian Wilkes and jock Chris Landeros were drastically disappointed after this colt’s effort in the Gr.2-Kentucky Jockey Club. So much so, they give him some time off before bringing him back for workouts five weeks ago. He is very likely NOT CRANKED UP for this start. I think they are pointing to a Florida Derby/Blue Grass where they could hit the board and qualify for the Derby depending on the points situation.

 

Strike Power (V/L: Not using)

The ultra speedy undefeated sprinter has always been on top in both his starts. It’s a very likely scenario that he leads or is pressing the pace through the opening half to the quarter pole. Even though Gulfstream tends to give a big boost to tired horses on the lead, I believe there is too much pace to overcome and STRIKE POWER is the first to retreat.
Peppered (V/L: 14-1+)

Has had success in all starts on the synthetic surface up at Woodbine. The first time he touched dirt in the Kentucky Jockey Club it was disastrous. I have a hard time believing that he will turn the tables today. The pace scenario does favor him more than some people are giving credit. I see him just to the inside of GOOD MAGIC through the opening turn. If he can match strides with GOOD MAGIC through the far turn and save ground. He could score a major upset. I just don’t see it.
​

Promises Fulfilled (V/L: Not using)

Will definitely be part of the pace scenario barring some last minute strategy changing by Dale Romans. I have to think that this horse is Romans’ rabbit and STORM RUNNER is actually the runner that hits the board. I think this Shackleford colt is destined for sprints up to a mile.
 Machismo (V/L: Not using)

This colt by More Than Ready is in this race for one reason. His gate to wire romp on February 3rd earned him a Beyer of 84, a solid starting point to hit in his first mark on the Derby trail. He is going to have to improve more and more, they give him a shot for points in this one, but I don’t think he is going to get it done. Like I just mentioned, he is going to want the lead, and the big problem is 2-3 other horses will go to.

 

Free Drop Billy (SCR)

Scratches out of FOY to point towards the Gotham in New York. Very interesting decision by Dale Romans. Is it because GOOD MAGIC is that good or was he not nearly fit enough to compete. We’ll find out soon.

Saturday’s Grade 2 – Fountain of Youth Stakes presented by Xpressbet draws field of 10, highlighted by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Champion – Good Magic

It’s go time in the 3-year-old thoroughbred season. If you want to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, time’s disappearing very quickly. We know that the Pletcher’s, Baffert’s, and Brown’s will find their way into the gate, but it’s not a matter of want-to for the rest of the training world. Your horse still needs to earn points. Churchill Downs changed their format for selecting the 20 entrants multiple times over the past decade. Now Japanese and European trainers even have the option to race in a ‘points-format’ which would them give them the option to ship to Louisville. Shipping overseas has never worked for horses that have qualified via the UAE Derby in Dubai. Don’t get me wrong horses have qualified, they just have never had the ability to threaten for the win.

Saturday’s Grade 2 – Fountain of Youth Stakes presented by Xpressbet will be run at Gulfstream Park in Florida. Last year’s edition brought together a number of serious Derby contenders including Classic Empire and Irish War Cry. This Saturday, we will get to see our first look at many handicappers top Derby contender, the Chad Brown trained, GOOD MAGIC. The $1M purchase by Curlin out of the Hard Spun mare Glinda the Good has ran well in every start. His pedigree gives every reason to show that the success should continue at the classic distances.

Here is a brief look at the Fountain of Youth field and some information on each horse. If you would like my bets, selection, and analysis please fill out the form on this site or click the following link: dadams0211@gmail.com

#1 – HE TAKES CHARGE (Tyler Gafflione/Mark Casse)

Mark Casse has started this grey colt by Tapit out of the Storm Cat mare Elarose at Gulfstream three times this Winter. He is an off the pace type runner that should save ground into the first turn. He has shown every reason to improve off his most recent effort, a maiden special weight victory going 8-1/2 furlongs.

He is untested against winners but the$625k purchase should do just fine the further races are scheduled. We’ll see if he lives up to his name and takes charge in the lane to score the upset.

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#2 – FREE DROP BILLY (Robby Albarado/Dale Romans)

We are very familiar with this 3yo chestnut colt by Union Rags out of the Giant’s Causeway mare Trensa. After a very dull effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, FREE DROP BILLY came back in his 3yo debut with a good second place effort to AUDIBLE in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. He was even with AUDIBLE at the top of the lane, but didn’t show good fitness and failed to match strides through the lane. He was clearly second best.

He also drew a preferable post position on the inside. It should benefit his running style. I see him just off the pace on the inside.

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#3 – PEPPERED (Nik Juarez/Reade Baker)

The Kentucky-bred 3yo bay colt by Tapizar out of the Cherokee Run mare Elaborate ran all of his three 2yo races at Woodbine in Canada. He broke slowly and corrected himself to get 3^rd in his debut. Followed that with another very green performance in his 2^nd start but managed to win by more than seven lengths. He then followed it up with a 2^nd place finish in the Gr.2 – Grey Stakes going 8-1/2 furlongs at Woodbine. He stepped it up after that shipping down to Churchill for the Gr.2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and faltered badly never getting involved.

If you draw a line through the last start, he deserves an awful long look particularly when it comes to your exotic tickets.

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#4 – STRIKE POWER (Luis Saez/Mark Hennig)

He definitely started his career with a bang. An eight-length win at 12-1 odds in what has turned out to be a key maiden special weight race during the early part of the meet at Gulfstream was no joke. The 3yo chestnut colt by Speightstown out of the Medaglia D’Oro mare Gold D’Oro has won both of his career starts. Granted, they are both going one turn and he is out of the great sprint-developing sire Speightstown so it’s hard to think he is going to develop going any farther than a mile.

However, he has never sniffed 2^nd-place in a race and he has shown a keen ability to start very well. I would expect him to do the same. That said, can he get the distance and how classy was his win in the Gr.3 Swale Stakes on February 3^rd.

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#5 – STORM RUNNER (Joel Rosario/Dale Romans)

Don’t confuse this one with Horse of the Year, Gun Runner. He ran four times as a 2yo. His debut on fast dirt at Ellis Park in which he ran a solid 2^nd coming from off the pace. He then tried the grass twice and hit the board but did not win. He then caught an off track at Churchill and scored easily. He was laid off before he came back to debut as a 3yo at Gulfstream on the grass in January. He ran like an unfit horse and faded. He followed that up in a non-winners of one allowance race and scored by a neck over a decent ground on fast dirt.

It was a very strong last race for this Team Valor owned 3yo chestnut colt by Get Stormy out of the Horse Chestnut (SAF) mare Destiny’s Reward. If he builds off of his 102 Brisnet Speed Figure he would have every reason to factor into this outcome on Saturday. The major question has to be whether or not this group is planning a turf career for this horse.

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#6 – GOOD MAGIC (Jose L. Ortiz/Chad C. Brown)

He was so good in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Champagne last year, I expect so much out of him this year. His expectations may not be as high as say Secretariat but they are definitely up there. He has been working over at Palm Meadows in the Miami-area and it’s hard to gauge his workouts. They have not been super quick but that doesn’t tend to mean a lot with Chad Brown’s runners.

If last year gives us any kind of a clue. Brown and GOOD MAGIC will be very ready on Saturday. Will the 3yo by Curlin be at 100%? Probably not but if he has improved at all he should be good enough to be in the winners’ circle?

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#7 – GOTTA GO (Chris Landeros/Ian Wilkes)

The Midwest connections scored a 2^nd-place finish with this 3yo by Shanghai Bobby out of the Unbridled’s Song mare Disturbingly Hot in the Gr.3 Swale earlier this month. They will need continued improvement this colt’s 2^nd start as a 3yo. If he does get the points to earn a spot in the Derby, he has two victories over the Churchill surface which can be very beneficial.

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#8 – MARCONI (JJ Castellano/Todd Pletcher)

Those of us who have worked in the radio industry are very familiar with the name MARCONI. Will the 3yo grey/roan colt by Tapit out of the Ponche mare Ponche de Leona make people in the horse racing world remember the name MARCONI. Todd Pletcher hopes so.  After running a solid 3^rd in the Gr.3 – Withers Stakes, he is going to need to make a solid jump forward from an outside post position to have a shot Saturday.

I see him getting caught out wide on the first turn and that’s a definite no-no at Gulfstream. I reanalyze the pace scenario about five times before I make my final decision, but as of now it’s going to be tough. The $2M purchase was as spendy as horses get. Does that automatically earn you a spot in the Derby? I guess we’ll see.

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#9 – MACHISMO (Albin Jiminez/Anthony Quartarolo)

The local connections got a huge win in his last start wiring the field by 11 lengths. The easy question to ask is who did he face in that start. At this point, we are still answering that question. The 3yo bay colt by More Than Ready out of the Smart Strike mare Winsome Ways can show speed. He went 6f in 1:09.3 which is no joke if they were classy horses. Like I said, are they classy?

My gut feeling is no but I am not going to dismiss this horse. He is very well bred and I think he could play a role in the outcome. Will it be first? Maybe.

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#10 – PROMISES FULFILLED (Irad Ortiz Jr/Dale Romans)

Well we had to assume with one Ortiz brother we get the other one in these races. They are never on lousy animals in any start. The straight out speedster by Shackleford faded for the first time in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes back in November. Romans has had three months to teach this horse how to learn from that race.

If anybody has the ability to get the most out of that race it’s Romans. Irad has also done a good job with straight speed types but he is not the only straight speed type in here. One of them is going to be on the lead and only one. Who will it be?

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Here are the horses I am using in my Pick 4 – If you want the remainder of my plays from the 14 race card at Gulfstream it’s $5 and you can send it via PayPal.

Full Analysis for all stakes $10.