Derby Preps – Road to the Kentucky Derby 2018

The Grade 1 – Louisiana Derby tomorrow drew a field of 10 with a couple of newcomers that we haven’t seen at The Fair Grounds in 2018. The morning-line favorite is Grade 2 – Rebel Stakes winner MY BOY JACK, a 3-year-old bay colt by Creative Cause out of the Mineshaft mare Gold N Shaft. Risen Star winner BRAVAZO, a 3-year-old dark brown colt by Awesome Again out of the Cee’s Tizzy mare Tiz o’ Gold. The clash of these two horses which already have earned enough points to get a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate on May 5^th is going to be very interesting.

For a full breakdown of the race and an individual analysis of each horses past performances and pedigree, donate to keep this page going via the following link. The amount is up to you. I will keep my word and give you all the information I have whether it’s $5 or $25. If you are just here to check out the site, I appreciate you taking the time to read the article. Here is the link to donate: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448\\\

BRAVAZO (Gary Stevens/D. Wayne Lukas)

I talked briefly about BRAVAZO through a number of my articles and races he was involved. He has been entered in four meaningful races when it comes to qualifying for the Derby. He ran 2^nd in the Grade 1 – Breeders’ Futurity at 47-1 missing by four lengths behind FREE DROP BILLY. He then decided to run in the Street Sense Stakes instead of the Breeders Cup, he ran 3^rd behind winner GOTTA GO and 2^nd-place finisher LONE SAILOR whom he will face in the Louisiana Derby. His last start as a 2-year-old came in the Kentucky Jockey Club and he laid an egg finishing last beaten 12 lengths by Gotham winner, ENTICED.

He took six weeks off before debuting as a 3-year-old in an 8-furlong allowance race at Oaklawn in mid-January, he won by a neck defeating a decent group as the 5-2 second-choice in the betting.

If you didn’t get a chance to watch the replay of the Risen Star it is worth taking a look. BRAVAZO looked to float out a bit at the top of the lane losing a bit of ground in doing so. BRAVAZO also looked to be getting a bit leg weary late and drifted out in the final 100 yards while digging down deep to fend off pace-setting rival SNAPPER SINCLAIR by a nose.

The main questions to answer with BRAVAZO and the ones I will give you the answer to if you donate to my website are:

How important is it to D. Wayne Lukas that BRAVAZO perform well in his last prep before the Kentucky Derby?
Can BRAVAZO get the nine-furlongs needed to win after looking a little wobbly going 8½-furlongs in the Risen Star?
Will switching from Miguel Mena to Gary Stevens have any effect on the outcome?

FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

NOBLE INDY (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher)

He was a very tough call for me in the Risen Star. After what Todd did last year with horses with limited experience in these Derby preps, I couldn’t help but think that he could pull it off again. I am not very high on the sire Take Charge Indy. However, the dam Noble Maz has already produced a stakes winning sibling in addition to the now having a Graded-Stakes-Placed colt in NOBLE INDY. Whomever she foals in the future, it’s definitely worth adding to your Equibase Virtual Stable.

Noble Indy had pressed the pace and had the lead by the time the field hit the eighth pole in his first two start and he went on to control the rest of the race and win. In the Risen Star, he was bumped at the break as it shows in his short comment but it wasn’t anything that affected the outcome of his race. He ran right through the bump and continued on near the front of the pack, had he wanted the lead, Velazquez could have pushed it a bit more, but he decided to sit just off the top two and thought that those two longshots would collapse. That didn’t happen.

This is the most important information regarding NOBLE INDY in the Risen Star and I will let it go in this portion and not in the donation-required section. If you watch the replay very closely. You will see that NOBLE INDY is attending the pace on the rail through the first turn. For some reason, Velazquez backed off the gas and didn’t want to be on the lead, SNAPPER SINCLAIR moved forward and there was a lack of room as they began to exit the first turn, NOBLE INDY then got in a difficult position. He had the favorite, INSTILLED REGARD just to his outside and slightly ahead. Larger horses can intimidate smaller or average size horses when you get stuck on the inside with those big horses pushing you every step of the way. I think this is where NOBLE INDY lost the race. I don’t know if he got intimidated or not, but I have no idea why Velazquez backed off the lead. He essentially gave SNAPPER SINCLAIR the spot that he had. And, SNAPPER SINCLAIR was a head-bob away from winning it.

What are the major questions regarding NOBLE INDY going into tomorrow’s Louisiana Derby?

Where is NOBLE INDY going to try to win this race from? Are they going to try and wire it, like they should’ve in the Risen Star? Or, do they try and settle off the pace given the longer distance?
Todd Pletcher has another entry in the race with speed. Todd is smart, they both are not going to send. Who lays off the lead?
Is there more quality speed in this field than there was in the Risen Star? How does it affect the performance of NOBLE INDY?
FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

MARMELLO (Jack Gilligan/Mikhail Yanakov)

Still a maiden as of post-time tomorrow, is it possible that we could see a repeat of what Irap did in the Bluegrass Stakes last year? Probably not. At 50-1 on the morning-line, the odds-maker is probably being generous. He did show very good speed in his debut on the turf going 5½furlongs at The Fair Grounds. He followed it up with an 8½ furlong performance of similarity. He went for the lead and was wore down in the final sixteenth to finish fourth.

These are the kind of horses that can make a dent and hit the board in these big Derby preps. Nobody takes a real look at them and they nearly run away with the race early before being caught in the final yards. Every once and awhile we have scenarios like Irap in last year’s Bluegrass where there is a complete lack of speed and the horse can slow it down to win it from the front-end.

MARMELLO’s biggest problem is he is not lone speed. If they decide to change tactics it may be there best option. Otherwise, this race could get out of hand early and set up for the big closers to the outside.

MARMELLO is out of the sire Concord Point who might mean nothing to any of you but the grandsire is Tapit who I am sure you all know very well. On the bottom, he is out of Anychanceatadance who was by Scat Daddy. In simple terms, the pedigree is stout and I kind of like this one if he stays above 50-1.

GIVEMEAMINIT (Javier Castellano/D. Stewart)

This Louisiana-bred has shown some ability in big races. He ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 3^rd in the Hopeful at Saratoga. He ran his entire 2-year-old season in major Grade 1 stakes races as a maiden. He finally decided to take on maidens at The Fair Grounds at the end of January and he was a ridden out winner at odds of 1-9. He then came back in the Risen Star where honestly I didn’t think he had the best of chances to pull the upset.

Now that he has had another four weeks off and with the speed in the race, the improvement in jockey from Bridgmohan to Castellano could mean some improvement. Enough to win, ehhh… maybe.

Note: *This colt’s BEST BRISNET DIRT SPEED is close to the average winning speed needed to win this race.*

RETIREMENT FUND (S. Brdgmohan/S.Asmussen)

We talked a bit about RETIREMENT FUND never sniffing anything but the lead in his first two starts prior to the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn four weeks ago. Things didn’t go that way perfect for the 3-year-old colt by Eskendereya out of the Street Cry (IRE) mare Northern Station. He is definitely well bred to succeed as the races get longer.

The track condition the day of the Southwest was unique and Kent Desormeaux called it “like peanut-butter”. The chart caller had RETIREMENT FUND stalking the pace in the three-path before making a four-wide bid and faltering.

In all honestly, he broke well, the jockey didn’t have to do very much with him, he settled nicely about four lengths off the lead, saved ground on the inside, he shifted out heading into the far turn, and began to gain ground three-to-four-wide. His speed just simply was not fast enough. He got outrun. It didn’t have anything to do with switching leads late or finding trouble. He simply just got outrun. COMBATANT came up on his outside and he failed to sustain his bid.

HYNDFORD (Joe Bravo/Todd Pletcher)

Well here we have the biggest wildcard in the race. One of the few 3-year-old’s I have not seen yet this year. This colt by Street Cry(IRE)out of the Candy Ride mare Niji’s Grand Girl is well bred for the distance and should succeed in the classic distances. He pressed the pace in his debut at Gulfstream on the turf before weakening in the lane but showed fight. In his maiden breaking victory, he again pressed the pace three-wide and attacked off the turn, this time on dirt, at odds of 4-5. He had a bit of trouble bumping with a foe in deep stretch.

The biggest note and it will be the reason this one will probably will be less than 7-2 tomorrow. He set the pace in his most recent allowance race but couldn’t hang on. He was caught in the final sixteenth by Rebel Stakes winner MAGNUM MOON.

Whether or not you like MAGNUM MOON, his pedigree and/or conformation, he won that race going away. HYNDFORD’s biggest problem is his running style. In every race he has ran, he has been close to the lead or on it, in my opinion, he is going to have to try and settle back a little bit farther early on in the Louisiana Derby to have any chance of getting this done.

If Bravo decides to send, we just have another reason to favor the closers in the race. This is a very similar type of entry to what Pletcher did last year, entering these horses with little experience, and trying to qualify for the Derby in their 3^rd or 4^th start. It worked out last year for him, but I have yet to see an Always Dreaming type favorite.

SNAPPER SINCLAIR (Jose L Ortiz/ Asmussen)

The 3yo bay colt nearly pulled one of the biggest upsets in modern Derby prep history in the Risen Star. Had he had just a little more speed late, he would have been on the other side of the nose in the photo. Tough breaks happen and Steve Asmussen has had his share along the way.

This colt had two very impressive victories leading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and I am not sure what exactly happen that day in California, but SNAPPER SINCLAIR laid an egg. He finished 12^th of 14 entries and he was caught wide while steadying on the turn. Either way, he went from 5^th at the first call to 11^th at the second call. Personally, I am going to just draw a line through that race. It was on the turf for one and it’s going to tell me very little about how he is going to perform tomorrow.

He showed early speed in the Lecomte in January. His first start in seven weeks. He then came back a little quicker in the Risen Star and grabbed the early lead but it wasn’t uncontested. He was head-to-head with BRAVAZO pretty much the entire way. He finished with a very game effort and he earned 20 points towards the Kentucky Derby qualification standings as a result. He currently holds 22 points and might need roughly 10 more to qualify.

LONE SAILOR (James Graham/Thomas Amoss)

We haven’t seen LONE SAILOR since the Lecomte in mid-January. Following his poor effort in his 3yo debut, he opted for an allowance race in February and ran 2^nd to a fellow foe which he will also face today in DARK TEMPLAR.

Amoss switched tactics in his most recent effort and tried to let LONE SAILOR settle off the pace and make a run at the leaders. Considering how much speed there is in this race, it could be very beneficial to this type of horse. He has an extremely hot trainer (30% in 114 starts). He got jockey Graham to stick with him for this mount. That can’t hurt and it actually tells me that he might think that he has something with this horse.

His speed figures on paper are simply not very fast in comparison with othersin the field. His fastest start came in his lone start in the slop as a 2yo at Saratoga in which he won by 11 lengths.

MY BOY JACK (Kent Desormeaux/K Desormeaux)

Team Desormeaux made me look like an expert at this game when they scored in the Southwest on Presidents Day. A lot of things went there way that day, track conditions, rail bias, and the race set-up beautifully for them turning for home.

Whether it was the peanut-buttery track or just all out talent, this 3yo colt by Creative Cause ran away with the Southwest in style. He is going to need to produce a similar run here to earn enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. For winning the Southwest, he earned 10 points. He also earned two points for his 3^rd place finish in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita.

Where do those efforts put him in this field?

At this point, I am a bit undecided when it comes to MY BOY JACK. I loved him in the Southwest Stakes. As far as pace scenario goes, I love him again, but what kind odds can I get on him. There are a number of factors that go into how I would bet this race.

DARK TEMPLAR (Florent Geroux/Brendan Walsh)

First time we have seen this 3yo colt by Tapit out of the Storm Cat mare Hurricane Flag. Debuted with a front-running victory at Churchill in November. Then he was completely out run by PRINCIPE GUILHERME who we saw in the Lecomte. He was then bumped at the break and had major trouble late in his 3^rd start in which today’s foe RETIREMENT FUND got the win.

In his latest start, he was able to better LONE SAILOR who we have already talked about and seen during this Road to the Derby.

Simply, it just comes down to how good is he? He hasn’t really proved a whole lot against the better of the 3yo crop. Or at least what we think is the better of the 3yo crop. Personally, I think his versatility is an asset, but he is going to really have to step up his game to make an impact on the outcome.

He was a $475k purchase at the Keeneland September Sales and I have a feeling that this one has a big future in front of him somewhere down the line.

I’ll try to get something on paper for the Sunland Derby. I likely will just give you a quick preview of my selections as I currently have not looked at the entries.

Next week, we will cover the UAE Derby and the Florida Derby. Both are 100-40-20-10 races.

It is going to be interesting where the point cutoff this year for qualification ends up. If I had to predict it right now, I would guess somewhere between 35-40. Your thoughts would be appreciate in the comments?

As I go through and handicap each horse race, I typically will go through multiple scenarios in my mind before I come to a conclusion on where and how I should wager my money. Dale Romans trains the 3-year-old colt PROMISES FULFILLED. At the beginning of the day, I think he liked the chances of his other horse in the race, STORM RUNNER. It wasn’t because the lack of talent regarding PROMISES FULFILLED, it had to do with that the majority of the scenarios had the speed fading in the Grade 2 – Fountain of Youth Stakes sponsored by Xpressbet.

PROMISES FULFILLED is by Shackleford and out of the Marquetry mare Marquee Delivery. As most handicappers should know by now, the Fountain of Youth is run at 8-1/2 furlongs and finishes at Gulfstream Park’s 1/16th-pole. It causes a great detriment to the horses that draw to the outside of the starting gate.

Here is a full trip breakdown for the field from start to finish…

THE BREAK

The horses that took the worst of it were #3 – PEPPERED and #8 – MARCONI. After breaking a bit lacsidasicle, MARCONI was bumping with MACHISMO and was then pinched back as GOTTA and MACHISMO began to come together. On the inside, PEPPERED stumbled but gathered himself quickly and was near the back into the first turn.

FIRST TURN

As the horses entered the first-turn, it looked like this: STRIKE POWER broke well and went to the lead on the inside, PROMISES FULFILLED broke well, pushed and passed STRIKE POWER to gain the lead after a furlong, GOOD MAGIC chased just off the rear right flank of STRIKE POWER, GOTTA GO followed GOOD MAGIC in the same manner, and MACHISMO followed GOTTA GO. HE TAKES CHARGE saved ground on the rail through the opening turn. PEPPERED was near the rear of the field in about the two-path. He was followed by MARCONI who traveled three-wide and trailed the field.

So what does a knowledgeable bettor and person get from those situations?

First and foremost, the horses that wanted the lead got it. The horses that wanted to settle and save ground did. The only thing that I would take note of was MARCONI was caught a bit wide and GOOD MAGIC was caught between horses briefly.

BACKSTRETCH

PROMISES FULFILLED continue to lead. STRIKE POWER continued to chase the pace about two-wide on the backstretch. STORM RUNNER tracked the pace on the rail about a neck behind the leader and was forced to steady multiple times, most importantly losing momentum as he looked to be beginning his run into the far turn. GOOD MAGIC was caught three-wide in the second flight, GOTTA GO was just to his inside, and the trailing trio had HE TAKES CHARGE on the rail, PEPPERED between foes, and MARCONI three-wide at the rear.

*The most important part of the call along the backstretch is we need to note where some of these horses are relative to how they want to manage the far turn. GOOD MAGIC needed to find space or make an early move, he did neither. PROMISES FULFILLED needed to make sure that he continued with a clear lead with enough horse to manage the stretch drive and he did that. Everyone else needed to make something happen and the only horse that has marginal room to hit the excuse button was STORM RUNNER.

FAR TURN

You can see on the head-on view that PROMISES FULFILLED was not even being asked while STRIKE POWER and GOOD MAGIC were being scrubbed on to give them everything they possibly could.

STORM RUNNER faltered and faded past the 1/4-pole.

MACHISMO, GOTTA GO, and MARCONI were all 3wide to 4wide exiting the far turn and were marking up marginal ground passing tiring rivals in the lane.

HE TAKES CHARGE and PEPPERED remained near the rear of the field out of the far turn and simply failed to fire.

STRETCH-RUN

Unlike many races, positioning was unchanged through the stretch. Giving PROMISES FULFILLED a clear victory going gate to wire. STRIKE POWER opened my eyes with his effort chasing the pace throughout. I didn’t see him as a contender with his pedigree lending itself to sprinting. GOOD MAGIC raced for the first time as a 3yo and ran poorly to finish 3rd.

TRIP SUMMARIES:

#1 – HE TAKES CHARGE: Dull effort, no excuses

#2 – FREE DROP BILLY: Scratched

#3 – PEPPERED: Bobbled start, no response

#4 – STRIKE POWER: broke well, chased pace, 2nd best

#5 – STORM RUNNER: forwardly placed inside, steadied backstretch, weakened

#6 – GOOD MAGIC: good early speed, shifted 3wide, even effort

#7 – GOTTA GO: tracked inside in 2nd flight, angled 3wide, lacked late bid

#8 – MARCONI: Pinched back start, 3wide throughout, no bid

#9 – MACHISMO: chased 3wide throughout, evenly

*So I supposed the major question is “Did we see a Kentucky Derby contender here?”

We now have three qualified horses more than likely. BRAVAZO who won the Risen Star from the Fair Grounds a couple weeks ago has 54 points and is for all general purposes a starter for the Kentucky Derby. After today’s win, PROMISES FULFILLED will get Louisville-regular Dale Romans a slot with 52 points. GOOD MAGIC now sits at last year’s cutoff of 34 points and should be in or very close to it.

*The most important thing we learned in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth was that GOOD MAGIC was not fully cranked up for the race. It’s a matter of building toward top form during the first week of May. Chad Brown showed that even began at less than 100%, GOOD MAGIC is still good enough to be graded stakes placed. It was kind of disappointing all-in-all. We saw early speed and that is apparently what Good Magic wanted yet when it came down to crunch time, he didn’t even have enough energy/speed to get him within a length of the lead. My honest opinion right now is that other than GOOD MAGIC, none of these horses made a good enough impression to make Dr. Dan’s Top 10 Contender List.

Good Magic almost surely will fall based on that effort. I think it was a pretty soft field to come back against. Promises Fulfilled went gate to wire and the Beyer will probably be no higher than a 90-93 at the most.

Current Derby Rankings (Qualified candidates only)

#3 – PROMISES FULFILLED – He was the product of a fast track/lone speed

#2 – BRAVAZO – I was very underwhelmed by the Risen Star

#1 – GOOD MAGIC – The best of what we got at this point.

Tag: Derby Preps

Risen Star Stakes winner BRAVAZO and Southwest Stakes winner MY BOY JACK clash in the Grade 1 – Louisiana Derby from The Fair Grounds.

BRAVAZO (Gary Stevens/D. Wayne Lukas)

NOBLE INDY (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher)

MARMELLO (Jack Gilligan/Mikhail Yanakov)

GIVEMEAMINIT (Javier Castellano/D. Stewart)

RETIREMENT FUND (S. Brdgmohan/S.Asmussen)

HYNDFORD (Joe Bravo/Todd Pletcher)

SNAPPER SINCLAIR (Jose L Ortiz/ Asmussen)

LONE SAILOR (James Graham/Thomas Amoss)

MY BOY JACK (Kent Desormeaux/K Desormeaux)

DARK TEMPLAR (Florent Geroux/Brendan Walsh)

Grade 2 – Xpressbet Fountain of Youth wired by Promises Fulfilled. ‘Trip-breakdown’ and full analysis

Here is a full trip breakdown for the field from start to finish…

THE BREAK

FIRST TURN

BACKSTRETCH

FAR TURN

STRETCH-RUN

TRIP SUMMARIES:

*So I supposed the major question is “Did we see a Kentucky Derby contender here?”

Current Derby Rankings (Qualified candidates only)

BRAVAZO (Gary Stevens/D. Wayne Lukas)

NOBLE INDY (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher)

MARMELLO (Jack Gilligan/Mikhail Yanakov)

GIVEMEAMINIT (Javier Castellano/D. Stewart)

RETIREMENT FUND (S. Brdgmohan/S.Asmussen)

HYNDFORD (Joe Bravo/Todd Pletcher)

SNAPPER SINCLAIR (Jose L Ortiz/ Asmussen)

LONE SAILOR (James Graham/Thomas Amoss)

MY BOY JACK (Kent Desormeaux/K Desormeaux)

DARK TEMPLAR (Florent Geroux/Brendan Walsh)

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Here is a full trip breakdown for the field from start to finish…

THE BREAK

FIRST TURN

BACKSTRETCH

FAR TURN

STRETCH-RUN

TRIP SUMMARIES:

*So I supposed the major question is “Did we see a Kentucky Derby contender here?”

Current Derby Rankings (Qualified candidates only)

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