Risen Star Stakes winner BRAVAZO and Southwest Stakes winner MY BOY JACK clash in the Grade 1 – Louisiana Derby from The Fair Grounds.

The Grade 1 – Louisiana Derby tomorrow drew a field of 10 with a couple of newcomers that we haven’t seen at The Fair Grounds in 2018. The morning-line favorite is Grade 2 – Rebel Stakes winner MY BOY JACK, a 3-year-old bay colt by Creative Cause out of the Mineshaft mare Gold N Shaft. Risen Star winner BRAVAZO, a 3-year-old dark brown colt by Awesome Again out of the Cee’s Tizzy mare Tiz o’ Gold. The clash of these two horses which already have earned enough points to get a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate on May 5^th is going to be very interesting.

For a full breakdown of the race and an individual analysis of each horses past performances and pedigree, donate to keep this page going via the following link. The amount is up to you. I will keep my word and give you all the information I have whether it’s $5 or $25. If you are just here to check out the site, I appreciate you taking the time to read the article. Here is the link to donate: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448\\\

BRAVAZO (Gary Stevens/D. Wayne Lukas)

I talked briefly about BRAVAZO through a number of my articles and races he was involved. He has been entered in four meaningful races when it comes to qualifying for the Derby. He ran 2^nd in the Grade 1 – Breeders’ Futurity at 47-1 missing by four lengths behind FREE DROP BILLY. He then decided to run in the Street Sense Stakes instead of the Breeders Cup, he ran 3^rd behind winner GOTTA GO and 2^nd-place finisher LONE SAILOR whom he will face in the Louisiana Derby. His last start as a 2-year-old came in the Kentucky Jockey Club and he laid an egg finishing last beaten 12 lengths by Gotham winner, ENTICED.

He took six weeks off before debuting as a 3-year-old in an 8-furlong allowance race at Oaklawn in mid-January, he won by a neck defeating a decent group as the 5-2 second-choice in the betting.

If you didn’t get a chance to watch the replay of the Risen Star it is worth taking a look. BRAVAZO looked to float out a bit at the top of the lane losing a bit of ground in doing so. BRAVAZO also looked to be getting a bit leg weary late and drifted out in the final 100 yards while digging down deep to fend off pace-setting rival SNAPPER SINCLAIR by a nose.

The main questions to answer with BRAVAZO and the ones I will give you the answer to if you donate to my website are:

How important is it to D. Wayne Lukas that BRAVAZO perform well in his last prep before the Kentucky Derby?
Can BRAVAZO get the nine-furlongs needed to win after looking a little wobbly going 8½-furlongs in the Risen Star?
Will switching from Miguel Mena to Gary Stevens have any effect on the outcome?

FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

NOBLE INDY (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher)

He was a very tough call for me in the Risen Star. After what Todd did last year with horses with limited experience in these Derby preps, I couldn’t help but think that he could pull it off again. I am not very high on the sire Take Charge Indy. However, the dam Noble Maz has already produced a stakes winning sibling in addition to the now having a Graded-Stakes-Placed colt in NOBLE INDY. Whomever she foals in the future, it’s definitely worth adding to your Equibase Virtual Stable.

Noble Indy had pressed the pace and had the lead by the time the field hit the eighth pole in his first two start and he went on to control the rest of the race and win. In the Risen Star, he was bumped at the break as it shows in his short comment but it wasn’t anything that affected the outcome of his race. He ran right through the bump and continued on near the front of the pack, had he wanted the lead, Velazquez could have pushed it a bit more, but he decided to sit just off the top two and thought that those two longshots would collapse. That didn’t happen.

This is the most important information regarding NOBLE INDY in the Risen Star and I will let it go in this portion and not in the donation-required section. If you watch the replay very closely. You will see that NOBLE INDY is attending the pace on the rail through the first turn. For some reason, Velazquez backed off the gas and didn’t want to be on the lead, SNAPPER SINCLAIR moved forward and there was a lack of room as they began to exit the first turn, NOBLE INDY then got in a difficult position. He had the favorite, INSTILLED REGARD just to his outside and slightly ahead. Larger horses can intimidate smaller or average size horses when you get stuck on the inside with those big horses pushing you every step of the way. I think this is where NOBLE INDY lost the race. I don’t know if he got intimidated or not, but I have no idea why Velazquez backed off the lead. He essentially gave SNAPPER SINCLAIR the spot that he had. And, SNAPPER SINCLAIR was a head-bob away from winning it.

What are the major questions regarding NOBLE INDY going into tomorrow’s Louisiana Derby?

Where is NOBLE INDY going to try to win this race from? Are they going to try and wire it, like they should’ve in the Risen Star? Or, do they try and settle off the pace given the longer distance?
Todd Pletcher has another entry in the race with speed. Todd is smart, they both are not going to send. Who lays off the lead?
Is there more quality speed in this field than there was in the Risen Star? How does it affect the performance of NOBLE INDY?
FINAL WORD (Why and where he belongs on your tickets?) – For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

MARMELLO (Jack Gilligan/Mikhail Yanakov)

Still a maiden as of post-time tomorrow, is it possible that we could see a repeat of what Irap did in the Bluegrass Stakes last year? Probably not. At 50-1 on the morning-line, the odds-maker is probably being generous. He did show very good speed in his debut on the turf going 5½furlongs at The Fair Grounds. He followed it up with an 8½ furlong performance of similarity. He went for the lead and was wore down in the final sixteenth to finish fourth.

These are the kind of horses that can make a dent and hit the board in these big Derby preps. Nobody takes a real look at them and they nearly run away with the race early before being caught in the final yards. Every once and awhile we have scenarios like Irap in last year’s Bluegrass where there is a complete lack of speed and the horse can slow it down to win it from the front-end.

MARMELLO’s biggest problem is he is not lone speed. If they decide to change tactics it may be there best option. Otherwise, this race could get out of hand early and set up for the big closers to the outside.

MARMELLO is out of the sire Concord Point who might mean nothing to any of you but the grandsire is Tapit who I am sure you all know very well. On the bottom, he is out of Anychanceatadance who was by Scat Daddy. In simple terms, the pedigree is stout and I kind of like this one if he stays above 50-1.

GIVEMEAMINIT (Javier Castellano/D. Stewart)

This Louisiana-bred has shown some ability in big races. He ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 3^rd in the Hopeful at Saratoga. He ran his entire 2-year-old season in major Grade 1 stakes races as a maiden. He finally decided to take on maidens at The Fair Grounds at the end of January and he was a ridden out winner at odds of 1-9. He then came back in the Risen Star where honestly I didn’t think he had the best of chances to pull the upset.

Now that he has had another four weeks off and with the speed in the race, the improvement in jockey from Bridgmohan to Castellano could mean some improvement. Enough to win, ehhh… maybe.

Note: *This colt’s BEST BRISNET DIRT SPEED is close to the average winning speed needed to win this race.*

RETIREMENT FUND (S. Brdgmohan/S.Asmussen)

We talked a bit about RETIREMENT FUND never sniffing anything but the lead in his first two starts prior to the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn four weeks ago. Things didn’t go that way perfect for the 3-year-old colt by Eskendereya out of the Street Cry (IRE) mare Northern Station. He is definitely well bred to succeed as the races get longer.

The track condition the day of the Southwest was unique and Kent Desormeaux called it “like peanut-butter”. The chart caller had RETIREMENT FUND stalking the pace in the three-path before making a four-wide bid and faltering.

In all honestly, he broke well, the jockey didn’t have to do very much with him, he settled nicely about four lengths off the lead, saved ground on the inside, he shifted out heading into the far turn, and began to gain ground three-to-four-wide. His speed just simply was not fast enough. He got outrun. It didn’t have anything to do with switching leads late or finding trouble. He simply just got outrun. COMBATANT came up on his outside and he failed to sustain his bid.

HYNDFORD (Joe Bravo/Todd Pletcher)

Well here we have the biggest wildcard in the race. One of the few 3-year-old’s I have not seen yet this year. This colt by Street Cry(IRE)out of the Candy Ride mare Niji’s Grand Girl is well bred for the distance and should succeed in the classic distances. He pressed the pace in his debut at Gulfstream on the turf before weakening in the lane but showed fight. In his maiden breaking victory, he again pressed the pace three-wide and attacked off the turn, this time on dirt, at odds of 4-5. He had a bit of trouble bumping with a foe in deep stretch.

The biggest note and it will be the reason this one will probably will be less than 7-2 tomorrow. He set the pace in his most recent allowance race but couldn’t hang on. He was caught in the final sixteenth by Rebel Stakes winner MAGNUM MOON.

Whether or not you like MAGNUM MOON, his pedigree and/or conformation, he won that race going away. HYNDFORD’s biggest problem is his running style. In every race he has ran, he has been close to the lead or on it, in my opinion, he is going to have to try and settle back a little bit farther early on in the Louisiana Derby to have any chance of getting this done.

If Bravo decides to send, we just have another reason to favor the closers in the race. This is a very similar type of entry to what Pletcher did last year, entering these horses with little experience, and trying to qualify for the Derby in their 3^rd or 4^th start. It worked out last year for him, but I have yet to see an Always Dreaming type favorite.

SNAPPER SINCLAIR (Jose L Ortiz/ Asmussen)

The 3yo bay colt nearly pulled one of the biggest upsets in modern Derby prep history in the Risen Star. Had he had just a little more speed late, he would have been on the other side of the nose in the photo. Tough breaks happen and Steve Asmussen has had his share along the way.

This colt had two very impressive victories leading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and I am not sure what exactly happen that day in California, but SNAPPER SINCLAIR laid an egg. He finished 12^th of 14 entries and he was caught wide while steadying on the turn. Either way, he went from 5^th at the first call to 11^th at the second call. Personally, I am going to just draw a line through that race. It was on the turf for one and it’s going to tell me very little about how he is going to perform tomorrow.

He showed early speed in the Lecomte in January. His first start in seven weeks. He then came back a little quicker in the Risen Star and grabbed the early lead but it wasn’t uncontested. He was head-to-head with BRAVAZO pretty much the entire way. He finished with a very game effort and he earned 20 points towards the Kentucky Derby qualification standings as a result. He currently holds 22 points and might need roughly 10 more to qualify.

LONE SAILOR (James Graham/Thomas Amoss)

We haven’t seen LONE SAILOR since the Lecomte in mid-January. Following his poor effort in his 3yo debut, he opted for an allowance race in February and ran 2^nd to a fellow foe which he will also face today in DARK TEMPLAR.

Amoss switched tactics in his most recent effort and tried to let LONE SAILOR settle off the pace and make a run at the leaders. Considering how much speed there is in this race, it could be very beneficial to this type of horse. He has an extremely hot trainer (30% in 114 starts). He got jockey Graham to stick with him for this mount. That can’t hurt and it actually tells me that he might think that he has something with this horse.

His speed figures on paper are simply not very fast in comparison with othersin the field. His fastest start came in his lone start in the slop as a 2yo at Saratoga in which he won by 11 lengths.

MY BOY JACK (Kent Desormeaux/K Desormeaux)

Team Desormeaux made me look like an expert at this game when they scored in the Southwest on Presidents Day. A lot of things went there way that day, track conditions, rail bias, and the race set-up beautifully for them turning for home.

Whether it was the peanut-buttery track or just all out talent, this 3yo colt by Creative Cause ran away with the Southwest in style. He is going to need to produce a similar run here to earn enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. For winning the Southwest, he earned 10 points. He also earned two points for his 3^rd place finish in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita.

Where do those efforts put him in this field?

At this point, I am a bit undecided when it comes to MY BOY JACK. I loved him in the Southwest Stakes. As far as pace scenario goes, I love him again, but what kind odds can I get on him. There are a number of factors that go into how I would bet this race.

DARK TEMPLAR (Florent Geroux/Brendan Walsh)

First time we have seen this 3yo colt by Tapit out of the Storm Cat mare Hurricane Flag. Debuted with a front-running victory at Churchill in November. Then he was completely out run by PRINCIPE GUILHERME who we saw in the Lecomte. He was then bumped at the break and had major trouble late in his 3^rd start in which today’s foe RETIREMENT FUND got the win.

In his latest start, he was able to better LONE SAILOR who we have already talked about and seen during this Road to the Derby.

Simply, it just comes down to how good is he? He hasn’t really proved a whole lot against the better of the 3yo crop. Or at least what we think is the better of the 3yo crop. Personally, I think his versatility is an asset, but he is going to really have to step up his game to make an impact on the outcome.

He was a $475k purchase at the Keeneland September Sales and I have a feeling that this one has a big future in front of him somewhere down the line.

I’ll try to get something on paper for the Sunland Derby. I likely will just give you a quick preview of my selections as I currently have not looked at the entries.

Next week, we will cover the UAE Derby and the Florida Derby. Both are 100-40-20-10 races.

It is going to be interesting where the point cutoff this year for qualification ends up. If I had to predict it right now, I would guess somewhere between 35-40. Your thoughts would be appreciate in the comments?

Blended Citizen wins Grade 3 – Jeff Ruby Steaks with prolonged drive to grab the lead in the stretch.

The Grade 3 – Jeff Ruby Steaks from Turfway Park had 34 points available for Kentucky Derby contenders. The nine furlong event was on the Turfway Park synthetic surface and drew a full field of 12. The 5-1 morning-line favorite HAZIT trained by Todd Pletcher was trying the poly track for the first time. It wasn’t meant to be this Saturday for Todd Pletcher at Turfway. Instead the Kentucky-bred shipping in from Northern California after finishing 3^rd in the El Camino Real Derby, BLENDED CITIZEN showed his will and guts to do one of the most difficult things in racing, rally on the inside in deep stretch. His determination and a great job finishing the race by jockey Kyle Frey, got BLENDED CITIZEN to the winners’circle at odds of 3-1.

I have a feeling that the numbers from this race are not going to come back very fast. As the final time was average. A couple things to note, I think the slow fourth quarter had to do with MUGARITZ opening up a wide margin and tiring rapidly. I came to this conclusion because Blended Citizen ran the final furlong in :12.06. He could be one of those horses that just consistently pounds along at one speed. Something that can be very beneficial at long distances. If he can run at that pace for 10 furlongs, he would have a definite shot in the Kentucky Derby. I still think there are questions yet to be answered but it was a very interesting outcome considering those factors.

Another note, favorite HAZIT stumbled badly at the start spotting the field about three lengths and was not a factor at all. BLENDED CITIZEN and runner-up PONY UP were co-second choices in the race at odds of 6-1. Both raced in a prolonged drive.

At this point, I do think that we need to consider BLENDED CITIZEN a contender in his next Derby prep and if he proves he has the good on dirt. I would put him in my official contender list.

What Kentucky Derby contenders should you be considering right now?

So we have nearly reached Saint Patrick’s Day and the Derby picture is getting clearer ever so slightly. This past weekend we saw a great showdown in California whereas in Florida we saw a near 20-1 long shot punch his ticket to the starting gate at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 5^th. Handicappers around the country are going to start ranking these horses and picking their winner, but to be honest we are not nearly close to getting to that point on this blog. I couldn’t tell you whether or not I am clear on one horse, but I will say this, last Saturday’s San Felipe did give me some clarity on the Southern California circuit and how the top trainers feel about their entrants. We will see how things work out in the Santa Anita Derby, but I have an idea who I think is the best candidate to come out of that state.

Here is a list of twelve contenders I feel we deserve to be considering at this point.

BOLT D’ORO

JUSTIFY

MCKINZIE

ENTICED

FREE DROP BILLY

FIRENZE FIRE

INSTILLED REGARD

AVERY ISLAND

SOLOMINI

SPORTING CHANCE

GOOD MAGIC

COMBATANT

Bob Baffert threatens to ship MCKINZIE after controversial inquiry leads to BOLT D’ORO’s victory in Grade 2 – San Felipe Stakes.

I think it’s pretty clear whom what we need to focus on after a great weekend of 3-year-old preps across the country. Santa Anita Park hosted the Grade 2 – San Felipe Stakes this past Saturday and each horse racing fan got every bit of excitement they could expect from the two top-end 3-year-old’s that entered the race. Bob Baffert’s 3-year-old MCKINZIE and Mick Ruis’ BOLT D’ORO laid it down in the Santa Anita stretch this past weekend and the race was not decided after they hit the wire. At multiple points from the top of the stretch to roughly 100 yards before the wire, the two colts were neck-and-neck and came together, bumping each other on multiple occasions. After watching the replay a dozen times or so, I came to the conclusion that there should be ‘no change’ in the order of finish. I thought that BOLT D’ORO bumped MCKINZIE at the top of the lane, knocking himself off stride and it actually lit a fire under MCKINZIE causing him to dig in even more. The twto horses raced together evenly until just after the sixteenth pole where MCKINZIE was obviously exhausted, drifted out, bumped slightly with BOLT D’ORO and ended up finishing a head in front of him. In my opinion, they both caused infraction worthy of a disqualification. In football when there are penalties against each team, they wipe each other out, and they replay the down. I guess in horse racing, the Santa Anita stewards took it upon themselves to decide which infraction caused the outcome of the race to be decided the way it was.

I have heard a number of opinions on the race. And to be honest, it boils down to this, it means nothing in the long run, but for me, it’s just another reason you give people to not like a sport that is so beautiful in nature and when it’s done the right way. I think they should have just let the result stand and had it been the Kentucky Derby, there is no way they change the outcome. Stewards vary across the country. Some say jocks can get away with anything in New York. Some say, jocks can get away with nothing in California. It honestly just depends on the day sometimes. Or, does it depend on the trainers/owners/jockey’s involved? I honestly don’t know but this sport definitely isn’t unilateral across the board. It should be. With no national racing commission to get involve, we will continue to see things happen this way. It’s too bad. And for us die-hard’s, it’s something we will have to live with until we find the sport with one set of rules. There are good things and bad things about every decision. I know a national racing commission would have its cons, but I truly think the pros outweigh the negatives.

Anyways, when we take the politics out of it, MCKINZIE and BOLT D’ORO ran a hell-of-a race. The winner BOLT D’ORO, a 3-year-old-colt by Medaglia D’Oro out of the A.P. Indy mare Globe Trot ran a winning race on Saturday whether he lost by a head or not on the wire. He ended being moved up by the stewards but I honestly think nobody was a loser. BOLT D’ORO settled on the inside through the first turn and along the backstretch, he tracked the pacesetters’ by about a three-length margin moving into the far turn, he was urged for run prior to the quarter pole and gained ground quickly on MCKINZIE who had taken the lead early on the far turn. It looked like BOLT D’ORO was going to cruise right by MCKINZIE and romp away with the San Felipe, but instead, he lugged in a little bit making contact with MCKINZIE like I mentioned early, somewhat bumping himself off-stride a bit allowing MCKINZIE to regain his momentum. And the race finished like I mentioned earlier with MCKINZIE outlasting BOLT D’ORO by a head.

Bob Baffert wasn’t shy about it. “I’m shocked”, he said. ““After the way [Bolt d’Oro] hit us at the top of the stretch. I don’t know what they were looking at.”

It was pretty apparent that Baffert was irate with decision. His horse was definitely bumped at the top of the stretch. It looked like it would go Bob’s way before they announced it, but it didn’t and he was clearly upset. He said on the TVG broadcast that he might even ship MCKINZIE out of town as a result of decision. I am not one to say it publicly, but it’s clear Bob thinks he owns the Southern California circuit and when it doesn’t go his way, he complained and threaten to send his top colt elsewhere.

It’s too bad. I would love to see these two colts face each other another time in the Santa Anita Derby prior to heading to Kentucky. It’s hard to get the best horse to the winners’ circle in the Kentucky Derby. With 20 horses and a lot of traffic to navigate on the track, it doesn’t always work out for the best horse that day, but if we got to see the both of them in California in early April, I think we could get the best of the both of them once again.

Here were the prices for the San Felipe Stakes

Race 6 San Felipe S. – Grade: 2

Off at: 2:56 Race Type: Stakes Age Restriction: Three Year Old Purse: $400,000 Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles On The Dirt Track Condition: Fast Winning Time: 1:42.71

Video Race Replay

Pgm	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
1	Bolt d’Oro	Javier Castellano	4.40	2.60	2.20
4	McKinzie	Mike E. Smith		2.40	2.10
8	Kanthaka	Flavien Prat			2.60

Also ran: 7 – Peace , 3 – Ayacara (GB) , 5 – Aquila , 2 – Lombo Scratched horses: Calexman (Re-entered)

Denotes a Keeneland Sales Graduate

Wager Type	Winning Numbers	Payoff
$1 Pick 3	5-2-1 (3 correct)	78.60
$0.50 Pick 4	5/9-2-9-1(CC PICK4) (4 correct)	514.25
$2 Daily Double	2-1	66.80
$1 Exacta	1-4	3.90
$0.10 Superfecta	1-4-8-7	4.62
$1 Super High Five	1-4-8-7-3	138.10
$0.50 Trifecta	1-4-8	4.70

Winning Breeder: WinStar Farm, LLC Winning Owner: Ruis Racing LLC Winning Trainer: Mick Ruis

The 66th annual Grade 3 – Gotham Stakes draws nine entrants including morning-line favorite, FREE DROP BILLY and Grade 1 – Champagne winner FIRENZE FIRE. Preview, Analysis and Selections

Well we have our busiest week of Derby preps this season and it’s a weekend full of major contenders getting their chance to stamp their ticket to the Churchill Downs starting gate on May 5^th. We are going to start with the battle in the Empire State at Aqueduct Racetrack. The 66^th running of the Grade 3 – Gotham Stakes drew nine entrants including morning-line favorite FREE DROP BILLY who scratched out of last week’s Grade 2 – Fountain of Youth Stakes by trainer Dale Romans. His stablemate PROMISES FULFILLED punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby by going gate to wire and now it looks like Romans’ decision to wait with FREE DROP BILLY could work out perfectly if things go right on Saturday in New York. It’s not going to be easy though, ‘BILLY has to deal with Jason Servis trainee FIRENZE FIRE and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner ENTICED. It’s easily the most competitive race we have seen in about a month. Let’s break it down…

DIAL OPERATOR (Trevor McCarthy/Jason Servis)

Broke his maiden as a 2yo back in July at Monmouth in a race restricted to New Jersey-bred’s. The 3yo colt by DIALED IN out of the Wildcat Heir mare Heir Stream debuted as a 3yo in his second start at Laurel Park. In a first level optional allowance race, DIAL OPERATOR tracked the pace at the rear of the field early and made a six-wide run on the far turn to take the lead at the top of the lane. He drifted in through the stretch and finished in a full drive.

After earning a 91-Brisnet Speed Figure in his last start at Laurel on February, there is definitely room for improvement with this DIALED IN colt. The female line does not add any help in classic distances and DIALED IN isn’t big on producing winners past a mile. Servis has Grade 1 – Champagne winner FIRENZE FIRE also entered in the race. You saw the games Roman played last week, so is there any counting out the longer shot on the board? It is a slightly different scenario, FIRENZE FIRE will race just off the pace and DIAL OPERATOR will settle near the rear. They both are going to need some pace up front.

FINAL WORD: For my opinion on whether this horse belongs on your betting tickets, please donate to Dr. Dan’s Daily Dose by following this link, the amount is up to you, the more you contribute the more information you will get from me. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=P5JA9JLG3Y448

COVE BLUE (Chris Landeros/Dale Romans)

Was 0 for 3 as a 2yo and showed very little. One thing to note about his 2yo races, he was bet down as the favorite in his debut and continued to take money even though he showed little through those three starts.

Came back as a 3yo and went gate-to-wire in debut beating a tough group. Came back in the allowance race that Romans horse STORM RUNNER won. He ran last week and his stablemate won the Fountain of Youth. This Romans entrant has shown the ability to win one way, the same way PROMISES FULFILLED won, on the lead. Will that work on the Aqueduct surface like it dad at Gulfstream?

BEAUTIFUL SHOT (Angel Arroyo/Keith Desormeaux)

3yo ridgling by TRAPPE SHOT out of the City Place mare Beauty for Ashes won his debut on August 27th at Del Mar by a nose over fellow Derby-contender NERO. NERO came back to win in his second start and followed that up with a second place finish behind KANTHAKA in the Grade 2 – San Vicente at Santa Anita. At the very least t proves that they both came out of a solid race in their debut.

BEAUTIFUL SHOT’s third start was in the Grade 3 – Bob Hope Stakes. He settled mid-pack but failed to match strides at the top of the line, got hung three-wide, and finished a well beaten 3^rd.

WHERESHETOLDMETOGO (Joe Rocco Jr./Anthony Pecoraro)

This 3yo chestnut colt by El Padrano out of the Domestic Dispute mare Undisputed Legend started his career at Delaware Park for a $40,000 tag. He won after breaking dead last and gained ground after being prompted on the far turn and cruised by all rivals in the stretch. His second start was an AOC/n2l for 75k. He ran the same race as his debut and finished 2^nd by a neck.

From that point on this colt raced in black type and got one win in five tries until his most recent start in the American Fabius Stakes which he won going away as the favorite. Trainer Anthony Pecoraro is not known for leading a top end horse to the Derby, but this one has continually improved.

FIRENZE FIRE (Manny Franco/Jason Servis)

Jason Servis’ second entrant in the race opened with nice front-end victory at Monmouth last June and then followed it up with a one-length victory in the Grade 3 – Sanford Stakes. Two months later they shipped to Saratoga and ran 4^th in the Grade 1 – Hopeful. Servis kept FIRENZE FIRE in New York and they came back to run a 90-Beyer Speed Figure and won the Grade 1 – Champagne Stakes. Servis decided the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was worth the chance. Things didn’t work out as they were caught four-wide throughout and showed little speed.

A nine-week layoff was justified and FIRENZE FIRE came back as a 3-year-old and won the Jerome by a half-length as the 1-2 favorite. He propelled that into a second-place finish in the Grade 3 – Withers Stakes earning four Derby qualification points. Either way his ability to attack from off the pace and do it while pressing the pace makes him a versatile win candidate.

FREE DROP BILLY (Dylan Davis/Dale Romans)

Well Romans sent FREE DROP BILLY to New York for a reason. He had to have an idea that PROMISES FULFILLED was going to perform the way he did down at Gulfstream. This top Derby prospect dazzled in his debut at Churchill which is always a positive. He ran 2^nd in back to back stakes races at Saratoga, one of which was a Grade 1. He followed that up with a four-length romp in the all-important Grade 1 – Breeders’ Futurity. After a poor effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and failing to make an impact in a 2^nd place finish at Gulfstream in the Holy Bull Stakes. His 3yo performance to date is hard to grade. He should definitely improve in this start but so will his competition. He is the current morning-line favorite.

OLD TIME REVIVAL (Steve Hamilton/Kenneth Decker)

Broke maiden at Laurel in December. Improved in both starts as a 3-year-old, going gate-to-wire in last start, posting a Beyer of 87. Went gate-to-wire at Laurel against a CLOSER-bias and could definitely be dangerous in this spot. I am not sure if he is good enough to hit the board. I do not know much about his connections, but I do know that his pedigree which goes back to DISTORTED HUMOR and CONGAREE.

NINE ROUTE (Kendrick Carmouche/Jeremiah Englehart)

Has raced in all state bred New York and has won all three going gate-to-wire. Is going to meet some serious pace presence from the inside unlike he has in all three career starts. The 3yo colt by The Factor out of the Sky Mesa mare Flash Act. Should have no problem being part of the outcome on a wet surface. On a dry track he will need to improve on his speed figures.

ENTICED (Junior Alvarado/Kiaran McLaughlin)

Won debut in on a muddy track at Saratoga at 5-1 last September. Earned a slot in the Grade 1 – Champagne and ran well behind Good Magic and Firenze Fire to get 3^rd. Went off as the favorite at 3-1 and came from just off the pace to nail TIZ MISCHIEF and PROMISES FULFILLED. Came back as a 3yo in the Holy Bull and ran an unenthusiastic 4^th place effort. McLaughlin should have ENTICED geared up for this start. ENTICED needs the points to get into a Derby slot.

Grade 2 – Xpressbet Fountain of Youth wired by Promises Fulfilled. ‘Trip-breakdown’ and full analysis

As I go through and handicap each horse race, I typically will go through multiple scenarios in my mind before I come to a conclusion on where and how I should wager my money. Dale Romans trains the 3-year-old colt PROMISES FULFILLED. At the beginning of the day, I think he liked the chances of his other horse in the race, STORM RUNNER. It wasn’t because the lack of talent regarding PROMISES FULFILLED, it had to do with that the majority of the scenarios had the speed fading in the Grade 2 – Fountain of Youth Stakes sponsored by Xpressbet.

PROMISES FULFILLED is by Shackleford and out of the Marquetry mare Marquee Delivery. As most handicappers should know by now, the Fountain of Youth is run at 8-1/2 furlongs and finishes at Gulfstream Park’s 1/16th-pole. It causes a great detriment to the horses that draw to the outside of the starting gate.

Here is a full trip breakdown for the field from start to finish…

THE BREAK

The horses that took the worst of it were #3 – PEPPERED and #8 – MARCONI. After breaking a bit lacsidasicle, MARCONI was bumping with MACHISMO and was then pinched back as GOTTA and MACHISMO began to come together. On the inside, PEPPERED stumbled but gathered himself quickly and was near the back into the first turn.

FIRST TURN

As the horses entered the first-turn, it looked like this: STRIKE POWER broke well and went to the lead on the inside, PROMISES FULFILLED broke well, pushed and passed STRIKE POWER to gain the lead after a furlong, GOOD MAGIC chased just off the rear right flank of STRIKE POWER, GOTTA GO followed GOOD MAGIC in the same manner, and MACHISMO followed GOTTA GO. HE TAKES CHARGE saved ground on the rail through the opening turn. PEPPERED was near the rear of the field in about the two-path. He was followed by MARCONI who traveled three-wide and trailed the field.

So what does a knowledgeable bettor and person get from those situations?

First and foremost, the horses that wanted the lead got it. The horses that wanted to settle and save ground did. The only thing that I would take note of was MARCONI was caught a bit wide and GOOD MAGIC was caught between horses briefly.

BACKSTRETCH

PROMISES FULFILLED continue to lead. STRIKE POWER continued to chase the pace about two-wide on the backstretch. STORM RUNNER tracked the pace on the rail about a neck behind the leader and was forced to steady multiple times, most importantly losing momentum as he looked to be beginning his run into the far turn. GOOD MAGIC was caught three-wide in the second flight, GOTTA GO was just to his inside, and the trailing trio had HE TAKES CHARGE on the rail, PEPPERED between foes, and MARCONI three-wide at the rear.

*The most important part of the call along the backstretch is we need to note where some of these horses are relative to how they want to manage the far turn. GOOD MAGIC needed to find space or make an early move, he did neither. PROMISES FULFILLED needed to make sure that he continued with a clear lead with enough horse to manage the stretch drive and he did that. Everyone else needed to make something happen and the only horse that has marginal room to hit the excuse button was STORM RUNNER.

FAR TURN

You can see on the head-on view that PROMISES FULFILLED was not even being asked while STRIKE POWER and GOOD MAGIC were being scrubbed on to give them everything they possibly could.

STORM RUNNER faltered and faded past the 1/4-pole.

MACHISMO, GOTTA GO, and MARCONI were all 3wide to 4wide exiting the far turn and were marking up marginal ground passing tiring rivals in the lane.

HE TAKES CHARGE and PEPPERED remained near the rear of the field out of the far turn and simply failed to fire.

STRETCH-RUN

Unlike many races, positioning was unchanged through the stretch. Giving PROMISES FULFILLED a clear victory going gate to wire. STRIKE POWER opened my eyes with his effort chasing the pace throughout. I didn’t see him as a contender with his pedigree lending itself to sprinting. GOOD MAGIC raced for the first time as a 3yo and ran poorly to finish 3rd.

TRIP SUMMARIES:

#1 – HE TAKES CHARGE: Dull effort, no excuses

#2 – FREE DROP BILLY: Scratched

#3 – PEPPERED: Bobbled start, no response

#4 – STRIKE POWER: broke well, chased pace, 2nd best

#5 – STORM RUNNER: forwardly placed inside, steadied backstretch, weakened

#6 – GOOD MAGIC: good early speed, shifted 3wide, even effort

#7 – GOTTA GO: tracked inside in 2nd flight, angled 3wide, lacked late bid

#8 – MARCONI: Pinched back start, 3wide throughout, no bid

#9 – MACHISMO: chased 3wide throughout, evenly

*So I supposed the major question is “Did we see a Kentucky Derby contender here?”

We now have three qualified horses more than likely. BRAVAZO who won the Risen Star from the Fair Grounds a couple weeks ago has 54 points and is for all general purposes a starter for the Kentucky Derby. After today’s win, PROMISES FULFILLED will get Louisville-regular Dale Romans a slot with 52 points. GOOD MAGIC now sits at last year’s cutoff of 34 points and should be in or very close to it.

*The most important thing we learned in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth was that GOOD MAGIC was not fully cranked up for the race. It’s a matter of building toward top form during the first week of May. Chad Brown showed that even began at less than 100%, GOOD MAGIC is still good enough to be graded stakes placed. It was kind of disappointing all-in-all. We saw early speed and that is apparently what Good Magic wanted yet when it came down to crunch time, he didn’t even have enough energy/speed to get him within a length of the lead. My honest opinion right now is that other than GOOD MAGIC, none of these horses made a good enough impression to make Dr. Dan’s Top 10 Contender List.

Good Magic almost surely will fall based on that effort. I think it was a pretty soft field to come back against. Promises Fulfilled went gate to wire and the Beyer will probably be no higher than a 90-93 at the most.

Current Derby Rankings (Qualified candidates only)

#3 – PROMISES FULFILLED – He was the product of a fast track/lone speed

#2 – BRAVAZO – I was very underwhelmed by the Risen Star

#1 – GOOD MAGIC – The best of what we got at this point.

Xpressbet Fountain of Youth – FINAL WORD (Updated)

Here is my prediction on the odds:

Good Magic (Value Line V/L: Even)

It’s hard seeing with amount of pace in this race from the #4,#9, #10 that it won’t set up beautifully for what will be an odds-on favorite in GOOD MAGIC. I think Chad Brown gets the money unless – UNLESS if Good Magic gets too close to the pace and we see somebody come from far back.

Storm Runner (V/L: 8-1+)

I am not sure if this colt by Get Stormy was planned on being a dirt runner, but he has won both starts on the dirt, and if the pace breaksdown today, We could see him closing fast and furious if he can get the trip. He is my top upset pick.

He Takes Charge (V/L: 12-1+)

Tyler Gafflione is as good as anybody when it comes to riding the racetrack. He will have plenty of time to adjust to whatever bias if any there is during today’s card. You saw the pedigree in David’s e-mail and they worked him out last week to freshen up his legs, and I think that he should be about 90-100% fit. With the finish line at the 16th pole, he drew the perfect post position. As long as he avoids trouble and continues to improve like he has been doing, he could definitely play a part. My gut feeling just says he is not fast enough to compete with GOOD MAGIC if he runs anything like he did last year.

Marconi (V/L: 5-1+)

With both horses to his outside showing a lot of speed, he should be able to get good position near the rear of the field to midpack if he wants it. Depending on his odds, he should do just fine in this spot

Gotta Go (V/L: 20-1+)

You would have to think Ian Wilkes and jock Chris Landeros were drastically disappointed after this colt’s effort in the Gr.2-Kentucky Jockey Club. So much so, they give him some time off before bringing him back for workouts five weeks ago. He is very likely NOT CRANKED UP for this start. I think they are pointing to a Florida Derby/Blue Grass where they could hit the board and qualify for the Derby depending on the points situation.

Strike Power (V/L: Not using)

The ultra speedy undefeated sprinter has always been on top in both his starts. It’s a very likely scenario that he leads or is pressing the pace through the opening half to the quarter pole. Even though Gulfstream tends to give a big boost to tired horses on the lead, I believe there is too much pace to overcome and STRIKE POWER is the first to retreat.
Peppered (V/L: 14-1+)

Has had success in all starts on the synthetic surface up at Woodbine. The first time he touched dirt in the Kentucky Jockey Club it was disastrous. I have a hard time believing that he will turn the tables today. The pace scenario does favor him more than some people are giving credit. I see him just to the inside of GOOD MAGIC through the opening turn. If he can match strides with GOOD MAGIC through the far turn and save ground. He could score a major upset. I just don’t see it.

Promises Fulfilled (V/L: Not using)

Will definitely be part of the pace scenario barring some last minute strategy changing by Dale Romans. I have to think that this horse is Romans’ rabbit and STORM RUNNER is actually the runner that hits the board. I think this Shackleford colt is destined for sprints up to a mile.
Machismo (V/L: Not using)

This colt by More Than Ready is in this race for one reason. His gate to wire romp on February 3rd earned him a Beyer of 84, a solid starting point to hit in his first mark on the Derby trail. He is going to have to improve more and more, they give him a shot for points in this one, but I don’t think he is going to get it done. Like I just mentioned, he is going to want the lead, and the big problem is 2-3 other horses will go to.

Free Drop Billy (SCR)

Scratches out of FOY to point towards the Gotham in New York. Very interesting decision by Dale Romans. Is it because GOOD MAGIC is that good or was he not nearly fit enough to compete. We’ll find out soon.

It’s break time – No Derby prep last weekend but it’s time to start forming your opinions. Top 10 Derby Contenders, Breakdown and Analysis.

We have pretty much reached the half way point of the 35 race schedule for the American side of the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule. This weekend we have a break with no preps schedule and it’s perfect timing to come up with the cliché of all clichés, Dr. Dan’s Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contender list. Don’t get me wrong, I love watching Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker’s analysis, but there Derby Watch Top 20 is so prolonged and drug out they could essentially rate every Derby prospect and it wouldn’t be all that much different. I like how Horse Racing Nation (HRN) takes their approach but they don’t do a great job of explaining their system except for calling it a scientific formula. Twinspires on the other hand gives us a bunch of big names and their take on current status of 3-year-old contenders, but it’s just an awful lot to read from one source.

#10 – Telekinesis

Telekinesis-02092018-HodgesPhotography

So here’s my take on it all. I will take a little from all of them and throw them into a Petry-dish, mix them up, run them through Dr. Dan’s once semi-brilliant mind and see what we come up with.

Jockey:

Trainer: Mark Casse

The Canadian bred 3-year-old colt by Ghostzapper out of the Street Cry (IRE) mare Intentional Cry was pretty much an afterthought he flipped in the paddock before what was thought to be his debut back in late January. It set him back a couple weeks which could definitely hurt if Mark Casse had plans on running him in the Louisiana Derby which is only one month out on March 24^th at the Fair Grounds.

Mark Casse has hinted that they would like to get a two-turn allowance race in him in the next couple weeks. If that is successful, it is most-likely that he will be pointed towards one of the latest Kentucky Derby preps. It would have definitely been the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland if they were still running on a synthetic surface, but since that is long gone in Lexington it also opens up the option that Casse could ship to Hot Springs for the Arkansas Derby on April 14^th.

As I said before, this is all hypothetical based on a successful and healthy trip in his allowance race going two-turns in New Orleans. It is also important to note that Telekinesis was established the Queen’s Plate Winterbook betting-favorite. Part of the Canadian Triple-Crown, The Queen’s Plate is Canada’s most-renowned horse and is held annually ever Summer at Woodbine in Ontario, CAN.

#9 – JUSTIFY

JUSTIFY

Jockey: Drayen Van Dyke

Trainer: Bob Baffert

We have only seen him on the track one time against four horses that we know very little about, but what we saw was impressive. Van Dyke just shook the reigns at him and he did exactly what you want to see. The 3-year-old colt by Scat Daddy was remarkable and looked splendid in what looked to be a routine effort even though it was his first start. The last crop from the brilliant sire Scat Daddy has produced a number of potential Kentucky Derby starters. When you add the great performance by COMBATANT in this past Monday’s Southwest Stakes from Oaklawn Park to the previous weekend’s Sam F. Davis winner in Flameaway, we have now a minimum of three possible Derby prospects by Scat Daddy. There is also some serious talent in the female. His dam Stage Magic ran 3^rd behind the great Groupie Doll. And the 2^nd-dam Magical Illusion ran just behind the amazing Ashado and it just starts there.

We are still very early in the Derby-prep season for many of these horses. Considering that, JUSTIFY has ran one time and has made it on this list shows the respect that you now must have for West Coast speed types with distance in their pedigree. With Ghostzapper being the damsire of JUSTIFY, that is enough alone to get your attention. You add into that Bob Baffert training the horse and that is where I justify putting JUSTIFY into my Top 10 off of one performance.

#8 – My Boy Jack

My Boy Jack

Jockey: Kent Desormeaux

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Heading into Monday’s clash with MOURINHO and others at Oaklawn Park, I absolutely loved MY BOY JACK without the inside-post track-bias that was very evident on President’s Day. I really thought that there was enough of a pace presence that it would breakdown and somebody was going to take advantage in the stretch. I have enough confidence right now in Kent Desormeaux that he will guide the horse in the right direction.

When these riders get up on their mounts each race. They are in control of where these horses go most of the time. If they are bold enough and brave enough to take some chances when they have the right horse, they are going to win some races. MY BOY JACK was full of run and Desormeaux is definitely bold and brave enough to dive down on the inside to get the job done. So here is what I think happened, Team-Desormeaux is looking at the racing form and thinking that if they wait patiently enough, room will open up and they can try to take advantage at the top of the lane. After watching races all day Monday, Keith and Kent talk about the track surface prior to the race, and decided not only to wait patiently but to aim for the rail because that’s exactly where you needed to be to have a shot. You could tell that Desormeaux clearly had the knowledge of the track in the forefront of his mind when he talked about his strategy on Oaklawn’s simulcast feed.

#7 – Bravazo

1bravazo

And is it just me or is Kent riding as good as ever right now?

Jockey: Miguel Mena

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

It’s possible Gary Stevens could end up on this mount, making it TEAM-AARP and it is looking like it could be a big flashback to the run of 1988 when Lukas and Stevens teamed up with the last filly to dawn the roses, Winning Colors. It’s still a big longshot but BRAVAZO is the lone 3yo horse to have secured his spot in the starting gate barring injury or a decision to not race.

It’s hard to not root for ‘The Coach’ and Stevens, they have put in as many hard-working hours as any duo in this game, and they do it the right way. Now as far as BRAVAZO goes, they are going to need to find some luck because he only posted a 93 Beyer in his Risen Star victory. He is going to need to improve into the low triple digits or at the least high 90s to garner any respect in Louisville.

This is with all due respect to the connections I just mentioned, but BRAVAZO had a perfect pace setup and everything went right for him in New Orleans. In my opinion, he is going to need pretty much the same thing to happen in Louisville and then he’ll need more.

#6 – Audible

audible

As far as his pedigree is concerned. BRAVAZO is a Calumet Farm homebred which in terms of modern racing doesn’t mean a whole lot, but when you look back at the history of horse racing in Kentucky, it meant everything. Oxbow who won the Preakness Stakes in 2013 was the first Calumet owned horse to enter a Triple-Crown winners’ circle since 1968. BRAVAZO is by Awesome Again who will definitely help the longer the races get. On the female side he is out of Tiz O’Gold (Cee’s Tizzy) but there is not much to trace back to as far as major wins go in the female family. Both sides of the pedigree track back to Northern Dancer. All-in-all, I like BRAVAZO’s chances to run well in the Belmont Stakes better than I do in the Kentucky Derby.

A 3-year-old colt by Into Mischief out of the Gilded Time mare Devil Blue Bel is currently on a three race winning streak. The latest, the Grade 2 – Holy Bull Stakes from Gulfstream Park. He won the race in what looked to be stylish fashion. I would like to add this. Even though who was tracking the pace in a difficult spot between two big longshots in the race, it is the most difficult spot to race from. After watching thousands of races over the years, the last place you want to be is just off the rear outer flank of the pacesetter while a horse has moved a head in front of you on the outside. A lot of race announcers will stay, “racing between rivals” in this particular situation. AUDIBLE’s rider, JJ Castellano made the best decision possible, let those two horses go by, and try to sit the pocket trip. He indeed sat the trip, angled out three wide on the far turn, and moved to the lead. He was challenged briefly by FREE DROP BILLY and extended that lead when roused by his rider.

It was a very professional effort. It’s exactly what you would want to see in a race at this point in a horses prep season. He is skipping the Grade 2 – Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream this coming weekend to focus his prep season on one race, the Grade 1 – Florida Derby. His trainer Todd Pletcher has banked that he can finish in the top three in that race and earn a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs. It’s hard to doubt him with his recent success.

#5 – SPORTING CHANCE

sporting chance

With AUDIBLE it’s hard not to compare him a bit with PRACTICAL JOKE (Into Mischief). He had a similar road to hoe when it came to his path to the Kentucky Derby and he has the same bloodlines. Time will tell how similar they run and had it didn’t turn out too bad for PRACTICAL JOKE in the long run. He had a very good 3-year-old season and I expect the same from AUDIBLE.

When I compared AUDIBLE with PRACTICAL JOKE, I’m not going to lie, I had these two horses in the back of my head while writing this as well. SPORTING CHANCE, a 3-year-old colt by TIZNOW out of the Candy Ride (ARG) mare Wynning Ride had a very successful 2-year-old season winning the Grade 1 – Hopeful before wrapping up his season with two wins and one placing in three starts. Now his 4-year-old counterpart, IRAP, is also by Tiznow. I far underestimated his chances as far as his longterm threat went in this industry. I liked him a lot in the Bluegrass, you can go back on this site and read it for yourself, but that is honestly a bit irrelevant when it comes to SPORTING CHANCE.

I love this horse, I like his speed, I like his female line more than I liked what I saw in IRAP last year, but it boils down to a timing thing and I have no idea how the next four weeks are going to shake out for these young animals. At this point, I am drawing a line through SPORTING CHANCE’s last race, the next two or possibly one race are the most important when it comes to the Derby.

He could end up at the top of this list with a couple good efforts. I think the Tiznow/Candy Ride combination is going to be either disastrous as a 3yo for him or it could be a perfect match. I am very intrigued to say the least.

The Coach has SPORTING CHANCE lined up for the Rebel Stakes and Gary Stevens will be in the saddle at Oaklawn Park. He is going to stiff test, but I expect vast improvement at somewhere between 7-1 and 10-1.

*

#4 – You are going to have to subscribe if to the Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections for a breakdown of my top four selections you can use in your trifecta box

Risen Star Recap: Bravazo noses out Snapper Sinclair in a Bayou-thriller.

Jockey Gary Stevens got back into the game for one reason, to win the Kentucky Derby. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has not had much luck when in the big race recently. His last win came in 1999 when Charasmatic shocked the world. His 3-year-old colt, BRAVAZO didn’t win the Derby but he did likely qualify for it by earning 50 points in the qualification standings moving into first position overall.

BRAVAZO broke well and moved forward three wide into the first turn, continued in that path pressing the pace set by SNAPPER SINCLAIR. Those two matched strides nearing the 3/16-pole and battled to the wire. BRAVAZO looked to lead by a neck but drifted out late losing some ground to win by nose at odds of 21-1.

SNAPPER SINCLAIR set rather slow fractions throughout. The second quarter which he ran in :23.81 probably was what cost him in the final furlong. The 3-year-old colt by City Zip showed exactly what is expected of a City Zip colt, he was quick, battled hard, and nearly pulled it off at odds of 41-1.

Coming into the race, I think I handicapped it correctly, I predicted that SNAPPER SINCLAIR would be on the lead, I just thought somebody would press harder and the half would go in something like :47 flat and the 3/4-time would be 1:11-something. It just didn’t breakdown that way.

My comment on BRAVAZO was not negative one bit, I said was going to watch this time but he had the ability to be part of the outcome. I didn’t see him winning, but he did exactly that. The fact that SNAPPER SINCLAIR held on as the pacesetter is where my bets went wrong. Had the race come in 7-5 or even 4-5, I think I would have made money. I still think EBBEN is going to be a winner. He was caught very wide throughout and was in striking position leaving the far turn. I knew at that point he was empty. And with the fractions being slow with the exception of the second quarter, I knew both INSTILLED REGARD and NOBLE INDY were going to have trouble. INSTILLED REGARD gained ground on the leader past the quarter pole, but once they switched leads at the top of the lane, BRAVAZO and SNAPPER SINCLAIR dug in and INSTILLED REGARD weakened to finish fourth just behind NOBLE INDY.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK:

INSTILLED REGARD – Thought to be the best horse of the bunch and a horse that was included in many handicappers Derby Top 10, he really was disappointing. Who cares what the pace scenario was at this point, if he was the horse everyone thought he was, he would have cruised by those horses at the top of the lane and pulled the upset.

SNAPPER SINCLAIR – He is an interesting prospect but I don’t think his pedigree gives him much of a shot past 8-1/2 furlongs. I could be wrong but he looked to be tiring a bit and the fractions were in his favor. I give him credit though, he dug in deep and near got the win. He has 20 points and will likely need somewhere between 10 and 20 more to get into the starting gate.

BRAVAZO – D.Wayne Lukas and Gary Stevens have given us some Derby winners in the past. I am not sure that we have Thunder Gulch or Winning Colors, but the fact is Stevens and Lukas will likely be teamed up in Louisville and both are going to be sentimental choices for many people who remember this duo. As far as the horse goes, it’s hard to make a case for him not continuing to improve. He was a bit wide early, he pressed the pace in what was a rather slow 1-1/16 mile race, but obviously has heart and wants to win. That counts for something. ADD HIM INTO YOUR DERBY FIELD – HE WILL BE IN KENTUCKY SOON, THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE DOES HIS VALUE GO FROM HErE.

NOBLE INDY – Pletcher is not the type to panic and neither is rider John Velazquez. He is no longer undefeated but this race may have benefited from the experience. He was not on the lead for the first time in his career and he did outfinish Instilled Regard for 3rd to earn 10 Derby qualification points. I think he stays on the Derby trail as long as he comes out of the race healthy.

OTHERS THAT STILL MAY BE A FACTOR

EBBEN: I think he deserves one more chance as well. He was caught wide throughout and I am sorry but not many 3yo are going to close on the pace after being 4wide the entire way. Hopefully, we see EBBEN in the Louisiana Derby. I want to see him one more time.

Grade 2 – Risen Star from The Fair Grounds Racecourse and Slots gets a quality field of 10 including Lecomte winner INSTILLED REGARD.

The first Kentucky Derby prep that will virtually guarantee the victor a slot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs for the 144^th Run for the Roses is the Grade 2 – Risen Star Stakes from The Fair Grounds in New Orleans, Louisiana. Grade 3 – Lecomte Stakes winner, INSTILLED REGARD, is listed as the 8-5 morning-line favorite. Jockey, Javier Castellano stays aboard as the 3-year-old colt by ARCH out of by the FORESTRY mare ENHANCING looks for his 3^rd career victory in his 6^th start. At this point, INSTILLED REGARD’s success beyond two turns puts him near the top of many horse racing analysts Derby favorites. He takes on a full, very tough field in the Risen Star and will need to bring the same form he brought in the Lecomte on January 13^th.

Here is a short breakdown of each entrant in Saturday’s Risen Star from The Fair Grounds Racecourse and Slots at approximately 5:03pm CST.

#1 – HIGH NORTH (Corey Lanerie – Brad Cox)

With a very good effort following a troubled start in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes back in November, HIGH NORTH has every reason to improve in his 3-year-old debut. Corey Lanerie sticks with the mount for Brad Cox and they are winning at 31% and are in great form. At a 15-1 morning-line, HIGH NORTH is a very sneaky play if Cox has him in peak form and is going for the win.

FINAL WORD: I really want to say, watch and see this race, but with the odds you could get in this race, there is a chance he boasts the highest value. If he goes off at higher than 20-1, I will put some money to win on him and use him in exactas. POSSIBLE PLAYER

#2 – NOBLE INDY (John Velazquez – Todd Pletcher)

Does Johnny V. ride for anyone else these days? With a nearly nine length romp in his 2-year-old debut, NOBLE INDY showed resiliency in his first run going two turns in an allowance victory at Gulfstream Park. His race history looks so much like other Pletcher entries last season. MALAGACY and ONE LINER had similar looks on paper and won their first start in graded company.

FINAL WORD: It’s hard to dismiss any entry of Pletcher’s at this point. I would be a bit cautious because of the pressure I think NOBLE INDY gets going for the lead. If he can rate off the lead and attack on the far turn, he has a decent chance to hit the board. BIG QUESTION, IS HE AS CLASSY AS HE LOOKS ON PAPER, NONE OF THE HORSES HE FACED HAVE COME BACK TO WIN RECENTLY.

#3 – GIVEMEAMINIT (Shaun Bridgmohan – Dallas Stewart)

I love Dallas Stewart and respect how he trains his racehorses. He has the long-term in mind and would not enter a horse if he didn’t have a plan. GIVEMEAMINIT faced some very tough competition as a 2-year-old. He was beat by SPORTING CHANCE and FREE DROP BILLY last Summer at Saratoga in the Grade 1 – Hopeful Stakes. He followed it up with a couple great efforts in the Breeders’ Futurity and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, both Grade 1’s. As a Louisiana-bred, he came back to sprint in his final day as a 2-year-old in the Louisiana Futurity (BT) in which he ran a very good 2^nd after getting caught wide. He final got to visit the winners’ circle, winning by eight lengths on January 28^th at odds of 1-9.

FINAL WORD: He is very experienced for his age and has shown the versatility to compete at five different tracks, but his experience going two turns is sketchy at best. He will need a hot pace up front and NEEDS TO AVOID TROUBLE, NEEDS PACE.

#4 – SNAPPER SINCLAIR (Adam Beschizza – Steve Asmussen)

Well, I don’t know much about Beschizza but he did very well to get SNAPPER SINCLAIR into third in the Lecomte last month. He will try to push on the lead and win much like he did at Kentucky Downs. The big difference is he is not running on grass.

FINAL WORD: He proved he is not limited to turf routes, his sire, City Zip was quick and he is proving to have a quick turn as well. I THINK HE IS PART OF A PACE THAT MELTS AWAY

#5 – INSTILLED REGARD (J.J. Castellano – Jerry Hollendorfer)

Castellano took over for Mike Smith/Drayden Van Dyke when INSTILLED REGARD shipped East. He proved what a great rider he is guiding him home and clearing off in the stretch. He looked like he had much more after winning at 1 mile-70 yards

FINAL WORD: Even though INSTILLED REGARD has hit the board in every start and is getting mad respect from people across the country. I THINK HE COULD HAVE TROUBLE being a bit wide into turn one and I THINK HE HITS THE BOARD somewhere between 2^nd and 5^th.

Want the rest of the field and the my picks for the entire card at The Fair Grounds. Look at my bets from last week at Tampa Bay and tell me if it’s worth it!

BRAVAZO (Gary Stevens/D. Wayne Lukas)

NOBLE INDY (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher)

MARMELLO (Jack Gilligan/Mikhail Yanakov)

GIVEMEAMINIT (Javier Castellano/D. Stewart)

RETIREMENT FUND (S. Brdgmohan/S.Asmussen)

HYNDFORD (Joe Bravo/Todd Pletcher)

SNAPPER SINCLAIR (Jose L Ortiz/ Asmussen)

LONE SAILOR (James Graham/Thomas Amoss)

MY BOY JACK (Kent Desormeaux/K Desormeaux)

DARK TEMPLAR (Florent Geroux/Brendan Walsh)

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BOLT D’ORO

JUSTIFY

MCKINZIE

ENTICED

FREE DROP BILLY

FIRENZE FIRE

INSTILLED REGARD

AVERY ISLAND

SOLOMINI

SPORTING CHANCE

GOOD MAGIC

COMBATANT

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DIAL OPERATOR (Trevor McCarthy/Jason Servis)

COVE BLUE (Chris Landeros/Dale Romans)

BEAUTIFUL SHOT (Angel Arroyo/Keith Desormeaux)

WHERESHETOLDMETOGO (Joe Rocco Jr./Anthony Pecoraro)

FIRENZE FIRE (Manny Franco/Jason Servis)

FREE DROP BILLY (Dylan Davis/Dale Romans)

OLD TIME REVIVAL (Steve Hamilton/Kenneth Decker)

NINE ROUTE (Kendrick Carmouche/Jeremiah Englehart)

ENTICED (Junior Alvarado/Kiaran McLaughlin)

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Here is a full trip breakdown for the field from start to finish…

THE BREAK

FIRST TURN

BACKSTRETCH

FAR TURN

STRETCH-RUN

TRIP SUMMARIES:

*So I supposed the major question is “Did we see a Kentucky Derby contender here?”

Current Derby Rankings (Qualified candidates only)

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*

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